The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 12/10/15 |
| Multi-colored School Private Investor | 12/12/15 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 01/02/17 |
| Trip theatre | 01/06/16 |
| ocher whorehouse police squad | 01/06/16 |
| ocher whorehouse police squad | 06/05/16 |
| Fragrant Hell Friendly Grandma | 03/26/16 |
| Olive native | 01/02/17 |
| Pale rehab | 10/25/18 |
| idiotic wonderful ratface | 12/10/15 |
| adventurous house | 12/10/15 |
| Yellow church | 12/10/15 |
| vigorous saffron idea he suggested | 12/10/15 |
| boyish overrated incel personal credit line | 12/15/15 |
| plum ape new version | 12/10/15 |
| Violet Self-centered Old Irish Cottage | 12/10/15 |
| Hateful therapy | 12/10/15 |
| sadistic pungent bawdyhouse | 12/11/15 |
| fighting mind-boggling mexican pisswyrm | 12/12/15 |
| umber flatulent lay chad | 12/16/15 |
| 180 silver mood | 01/04/16 |
| Fear-inspiring set | 11/09/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 12/11/15 |
| Lake Blood Rage Fat Ankles | 12/11/15 |
| Effete garrison | 12/11/15 |
| sadistic pungent bawdyhouse | 12/11/15 |
| bateful karate | 12/12/15 |
| Slate Candlestick Maker | 01/25/16 |
| gay floppy abode community account | 11/10/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 12/12/15 |
| cerebral casino | 12/12/15 |
| motley puce foreskin volcanic crater | 12/12/15 |
| slap-happy bright windowlicker regret | 12/12/15 |
| Exciting Pink Gaming Laptop | 12/15/15 |
| Drunken fortuitous meteor corner | 12/21/15 |
| Marvelous Business Firm Pervert | 12/12/15 |
| Balding stimulating stain | 12/12/15 |
| mint public bath dragon | 12/12/15 |
| beady-eyed glassy coffee pot idiot | 12/12/15 |
| soggy red station | 12/12/15 |
| Clear heaven multi-billionaire | 12/12/15 |
| Violet Self-centered Old Irish Cottage | 12/15/15 |
| Violet Self-centered Old Irish Cottage | 12/16/15 |
| electric purple skinny woman love of her life | 12/15/15 |
| Vivacious cheese-eating school cafeteria | 12/15/15 |
| Hyperventilating Stag Film Hominid | 12/15/15 |
| razzmatazz stage | 12/15/15 |
| Maize Stage Gunner | 12/15/15 |
| exhilarant amethyst spot | 12/15/15 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 12/15/15 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 12/15/15 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 12/15/15 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 12/15/15 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 12/15/15 |
| swollen address | 01/05/16 |
| Slate Candlestick Maker | 01/25/16 |
| hyperactive toilet seat nibblets | 12/17/16 |
| Glittery locale coldplay fan | 05/18/16 |
| Shimmering excitant indian lodge trust fund | 08/12/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena | 11/09/16 |
| Black telephone | 11/09/16 |
| unhinged preventive strike dingle berry | 10/22/20 |
| diverse up-to-no-good jap indirect expression | 12/15/15 |
| Comical anal sandwich round eye | 12/16/15 |
| Titillating rambunctious resort crotch | 12/16/15 |
| Provocative sneaky criminal | 12/16/15 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 12/16/15 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 12/17/15 |
| copper internet-worthy athletic conference kitty | 12/18/15 |
| Trip theatre | 01/06/16 |
| Elite principal's office | 12/18/15 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 12/21/15 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 12/21/15 |
| Drunken fortuitous meteor corner | 12/21/15 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 12/30/15 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 12/30/15 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 01/04/16 |
| 180 silver mood | 01/04/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 01/05/16 |
| Slate Candlestick Maker | 01/25/16 |
| copper internet-worthy athletic conference kitty | 01/05/16 |
| Khaki Pit Azn | 01/05/16 |
| stirring potus | 01/05/16 |
| Avocado Plaza Pocket Flask | 01/05/16 |
| swashbuckling stock car | 01/05/16 |
| Avocado Plaza Pocket Flask | 01/05/16 |
| Trip theatre | 01/06/16 |
| Avocado Plaza Pocket Flask | 01/06/16 |
| swashbuckling stock car | 01/05/16 |
| Shimmering excitant indian lodge trust fund | 01/06/16 |
| Drunken fortuitous meteor corner | 01/07/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 01/08/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 01/08/16 |
| Drunken fortuitous meteor corner | 01/08/16 |
| copper internet-worthy athletic conference kitty | 01/09/16 |
| Drunken fortuitous meteor corner | 01/10/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 01/18/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 01/19/16 |
| copper internet-worthy athletic conference kitty | 01/21/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 01/25/16 |
| odious lettuce newt | 01/25/16 |
| Slate Candlestick Maker | 01/25/16 |
| odious lettuce newt | 02/09/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 09/06/16 |
| Trip theatre | 11/05/18 |
| judgmental becky | 01/29/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 02/01/16 |
| rose bespoke clown scourge upon the earth | 02/01/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 02/01/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 02/07/16 |
| Khaki Pit Azn | 02/09/16 |
| Free-loading Field Doctorate | 02/09/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 02/20/16 |
| Indecent Dilemma International Law Enforcement Agency | 02/20/16 |
| Glittery locale coldplay fan | 02/24/16 |
| tripping useless location | 02/24/16 |
| low-t parlor | 02/27/16 |
| electric purple skinny woman love of her life | 03/09/16 |
| Yapping Cowardly Meetinghouse | 03/15/16 |
| Yellow church | 03/15/16 |
| Vivacious cheese-eating school cafeteria | 03/16/16 |
| medicated learning disabled tanning salon headpube | 02/24/16 |
| Ruddy University | 02/24/16 |
| Vivacious cheese-eating school cafeteria | 07/21/16 |
| Arrogant Concupiscible Immigrant | 02/24/16 |
| Yellow church | 02/27/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/02/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/04/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/09/16 |
| Khaki Pit Azn | 03/09/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/15/16 |
| Glittery locale coldplay fan | 03/15/16 |
| cracking cruel-hearted affirmative action theater | 03/15/16 |
| lavender theater stage double fault | 03/15/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/16/16 |
| Violet Self-centered Old Irish Cottage | 03/16/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena | 03/23/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/23/16 |
| mint public bath dragon | 03/26/16 |
| Bronze forum goyim | 03/26/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/26/16 |
| swollen address | 03/28/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena | 03/28/16 |
| adventurous house | 03/28/16 |
| Shimmering excitant indian lodge trust fund | 08/12/16 |
| Trip theatre | 11/05/18 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/28/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/29/16 |
| Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat | 03/29/16 |
| Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat | 03/29/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/29/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/29/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 04/01/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 04/04/16 |
| Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat | 04/15/16 |
| Self-absorbed Zippy Home | 04/15/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 04/19/16 |
| Snowy quadroon haunted graveyard | 04/20/16 |
| high-end associate den | 04/20/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 04/24/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 04/25/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 04/26/16 |
| Disrespectful flushed filthpig box office | 04/26/16 |
| House-broken Racy Cumskin Giraffe | 04/30/16 |
| Iridescent center genital piercing | 05/01/16 |
| Iridescent center genital piercing | 11/07/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 05/02/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena | 05/02/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 05/03/16 |
| Passionate greedy state tattoo | 05/03/16 |
| Hairraiser outnumbered water buffalo | 05/03/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 05/04/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 05/04/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 05/05/16 |
| beady-eyed glassy coffee pot idiot | 05/05/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 05/05/16 |
| Ruddy University | 05/05/16 |
| cerebral casino | 05/18/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 05/18/16 |
| Glittery locale coldplay fan | 05/18/16 |
| cerebral casino | 05/18/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 05/29/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 06/20/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 06/29/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 07/14/16 |
| supple mauve sanctuary ceo | 07/15/16 |
| Shimmering excitant indian lodge trust fund | 07/15/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 07/17/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 07/17/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 07/21/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 07/22/16 |
| Wine laser beams point | 07/22/16 |
| dashing rigpig | 07/23/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 07/24/16 |
| Curious Adulterous Dog Poop Base | 07/25/16 |
| Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat | 07/25/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 07/27/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 08/05/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 08/09/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 08/12/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 08/12/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 08/12/16 |
| chrome aphrodisiac area mad-dog skullcap | 08/12/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 08/30/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 08/30/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 09/06/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 09/13/16 |
| Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat | 09/14/16 |
| Marvelous Business Firm Pervert | 09/14/16 |
| Green appetizing national philosopher-king | 09/15/16 |
| angry charismatic locus | 09/15/16 |
| ocher whorehouse police squad | 09/15/16 |
| sick boiling water | 09/15/16 |
| Contagious crystalline halford prole | 09/15/16 |
| Light kitchen selfie | 09/19/16 |
| Light kitchen selfie | 09/19/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 09/27/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 09/24/16 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 09/27/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 09/27/16 |
| Violet Self-centered Old Irish Cottage | 09/27/16 |
| Scarlet liquid oxygen toaster | 10/08/16 |
| lemon razzle mother crackhouse | 07/29/24 |
| Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat | 09/28/16 |
| Marvelous Business Firm Pervert | 09/28/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 09/28/16 |
| high-end associate den | 09/28/16 |
| Self-absorbed Zippy Home | 09/28/16 |
| Pearly Big Orchestra Pit Shitlib | 10/08/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 10/09/16 |
| talented cuckoldry masturbator | 10/09/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 10/09/16 |
| laughsome apoplectic main people | 10/09/16 |
| Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat | 10/10/16 |
| Curious Adulterous Dog Poop Base | 10/30/16 |
| Shimmering excitant indian lodge trust fund | 11/01/16 |
| sick boiling water | 11/01/16 |
| vibrant poppy menage | 11/02/16 |
| razzmatazz stage | 11/02/16 |
| Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat | 11/07/16 |
| lascivious maniacal jewess hunting ground | 11/08/16 |
| Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat | 11/08/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 11/08/16 |
| Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat | 11/08/16 |
| Aromatic bisexual persian | 11/08/16 |
| crusty milk | 11/08/16 |
| rose bespoke clown scourge upon the earth | 11/08/16 |
| Light kitchen selfie | 11/08/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 11/08/16 |
| insecure bull headed place of business range | 11/09/16 |
| Green appetizing national philosopher-king | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic orchid senate trump supporter | 11/09/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| sick boiling water | 11/09/16 |
| insecure bull headed place of business range | 11/09/16 |
| Curious Adulterous Dog Poop Base | 11/09/16 |
| beady-eyed glassy coffee pot idiot | 11/09/16 |
| Thriller market twinkling uncleanness | 12/03/16 |
| gay floppy abode community account | 12/07/16 |
| hyperactive toilet seat nibblets | 12/17/16 |
| Bossy Weed Whacker | 10/11/24 |
| dun cruise ship cuckold | 11/09/16 |
| federal gold people who are hurt | 11/09/16 |
| galvanic psychic stead | 11/09/16 |
| citrine legal warrant | 11/09/16 |
| Thriller market twinkling uncleanness | 11/09/16 |
| Shimmering excitant indian lodge trust fund | 11/09/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| cerebral casino | 11/09/16 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 11/09/16 |
| hairless library | 11/09/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| Irradiated Office Half-breed | 11/09/16 |
| Arousing Dark Site Famous Landscape Painting | 11/09/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| vigorous saffron idea he suggested | 11/09/16 |
| Elite principal's office | 11/10/16 |
| odious lettuce newt | 11/10/16 |
| ocher whorehouse police squad | 11/10/16 |
| Ivory pozpig mental disorder | 11/10/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 11/10/16 |
| Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat | 11/10/16 |
| Indecent Dilemma International Law Enforcement Agency | 11/10/16 |
| Light kitchen selfie | 11/14/16 |
| sepia hall legend | 11/14/16 |
| mahogany organic girlfriend tank | 12/04/16 |
| hyperactive toilet seat nibblets | 12/17/16 |
| Bossy Weed Whacker | 10/11/24 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 11/25/16 |
| Chest-beating Crimson Institution | 12/03/16 |
| laughsome apoplectic main people | 12/04/16 |
| Bistre aggressive piazza | 12/07/16 |
| ocher whorehouse police squad | 12/07/16 |
| Chest-beating Crimson Institution | 12/07/16 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 01/02/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 01/02/17 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 01/02/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 01/02/17 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 03/03/20 |
| ocher whorehouse police squad | 01/02/17 |
| Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena | 01/16/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 01/20/17 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 01/20/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 01/23/17 |
| Pearly Big Orchestra Pit Shitlib | 01/23/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 01/23/17 |
| coiffed underhanded lodge turdskin | 01/23/17 |
| Pearly Big Orchestra Pit Shitlib | 01/23/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 01/23/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 01/25/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 01/26/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 02/06/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 02/13/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 02/27/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 05/03/17 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 05/03/17 |
| Grizzly ticket booth goal in life | 09/21/17 |
| Yellow church | 01/23/17 |
| sick boiling water | 02/27/17 |
| Trip theatre | 03/22/17 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 04/17/17 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 05/08/17 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 06/20/17 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 08/10/17 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 10/15/17 |
| Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena | 10/15/17 |
| nursing home gay wizard | 10/15/17 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 11/06/17 |
| very tactful chapel bbw | 11/06/17 |
| fiercely-loyal hairy legs | 11/08/17 |
| Sticky Deep Space Travel Guidebook | 11/08/17 |
| Coral mad cow disease | 11/13/17 |
| Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena | 12/18/17 |
| soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck | 12/18/17 |
| Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena | 12/18/17 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 01/30/18 |
| ocher whorehouse police squad | 06/01/18 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 07/18/18 |
| Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena | 07/19/18 |
| Contagious crystalline halford prole | 09/20/18 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 09/25/18 |
| adventurous house | 10/06/18 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 10/06/18 |
| ocher whorehouse police squad | 10/25/18 |
| angry charismatic locus | 10/25/18 |
| Slate Candlestick Maker | 11/05/18 |
| ocher whorehouse police squad | 11/05/18 |
| Trip theatre | 11/05/18 |
| ocher whorehouse police squad | 11/05/18 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 01/08/19 |
| zombie-like at-the-ready voyeur circlehead | 02/23/19 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 03/13/19 |
| Slate Candlestick Maker | 06/24/19 |
| emerald black woman | 06/24/19 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 11/18/19 |
| sick boiling water | 02/12/20 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 02/12/20 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 03/24/20 |
| Carmine internal respiration | 03/24/20 |
| supple mauve sanctuary ceo | 04/04/20 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 04/26/20 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 05/13/20 |
| supple mauve sanctuary ceo | 06/05/20 |
| tan shrine really tough guy | 06/05/20 |
| supple mauve sanctuary ceo | 09/09/20 |
| sick boiling water | 09/09/20 |
| idiotic wonderful ratface | 09/09/20 |
| Know-it-all wrinkle | 09/12/20 |
| Cream church building | 09/24/20 |
| emerald black woman | 10/09/20 |
| Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena | 10/10/20 |
| Metal Reading Party Keepsake Machete | 10/22/20 |
| Thriller market twinkling uncleanness | 10/22/20 |
| unhinged preventive strike dingle berry | 10/22/20 |
| unhinged preventive strike dingle berry | 10/22/20 |
| Primrose Gas Station Queen Of The Night | 03/23/22 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 10/27/20 |
| Trip theatre | 10/27/20 |
| emerald black woman | 10/30/20 |
| Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena | 11/03/20 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/22/22 |
| Tantric Temple | 03/23/22 |
| startled national security agency sound barrier | 03/23/22 |
| step-uncle's house | 03/23/22 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 07/25/22 |
| idiotic wonderful ratface | 07/25/22 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 10/23/22 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 11/16/22 |
| transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe | 04/25/23 |
| cerebral casino | 04/25/23 |
| Cream church building | 04/29/23 |
| lemon razzle mother crackhouse | 05/28/23 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 02/22/24 |
| Cream church building | 02/23/24 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 05/23/24 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 08/26/24 |
| Cream church building | 09/13/24 |
| idiotic wonderful ratface | 09/13/24 |
| Cream church building | 10/18/24 |
| Bossy Weed Whacker | 10/11/24 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 11/06/24 |
| beady-eyed glassy coffee pot idiot | 03/04/25 |
| beady-eyed glassy coffee pot idiot | 03/04/25 |
| Contagious crystalline halford prole | 03/04/25 |
| Bossy Weed Whacker | 03/04/25 |
| property digit ratio | 03/04/25 |
| lime faggot firefighter brunch | 03/05/25 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/07/25 |
| ultramarine | 03/07/25 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/08/25 |
| white | 03/08/25 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 03/08/25 |
| Yellow church | 02/18/26 |
| Heady Cordovan Deer Antler | 05/15/26 |
| Obsidian Shaky | 05/17/26 |
| lime faggot firefighter brunch | 08/11/26 |
| chopped manlet | 09/22/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Multi-colored School Private Investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Trip theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: ocher whorehouse police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: ocher whorehouse police squad another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Fragrant Hell Friendly Grandma 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Olive native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Pale rehab "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: idiotic wonderful ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: adventurous house 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Yellow church 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: vigorous saffron idea he suggested Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: boyish overrated incel personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: plum ape new version FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Violet Self-centered Old Irish Cottage Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Hateful therapy Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: sadistic pungent bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: fighting mind-boggling mexican pisswyrm Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: umber flatulent lay chad Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: 180 silver mood Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Fear-inspiring set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Lake Blood Rage Fat Ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Effete garrison 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: sadistic pungent bawdyhouse November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: bateful karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Slate Candlestick Maker Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: gay floppy abode community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: cerebral casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: motley puce foreskin volcanic crater lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: slap-happy bright windowlicker regret March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Exciting Pink Gaming Laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Drunken fortuitous meteor corner 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Marvelous Business Firm Pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Balding stimulating stain lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: mint public bath dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: beady-eyed glassy coffee pot idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: soggy red station Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Clear heaven multi-billionaire Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Violet Self-centered Old Irish Cottage OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Violet Self-centered Old Irish Cottage And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: electric purple skinny woman love of her life 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Vivacious cheese-eating school cafeteria fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Hyperventilating Stag Film Hominid I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: razzmatazz stage 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Maize Stage Gunner February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: exhilarant amethyst spot You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: swollen address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Slate Candlestick Maker Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: hyperactive toilet seat nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Glittery locale coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Shimmering excitant indian lodge trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Black telephone Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: unhinged preventive strike dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: diverse up-to-no-good jap indirect expression This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Comical anal sandwich round eye 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Titillating rambunctious resort crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Provocative sneaky criminal Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: copper internet-worthy athletic conference kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Trip theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Elite principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Drunken fortuitous meteor corner 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: 180 silver mood flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Slate Candlestick Maker Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: copper internet-worthy athletic conference kitty From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Khaki Pit Azn 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: stirring potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Avocado Plaza Pocket Flask An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: swashbuckling stock car 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Avocado Plaza Pocket Flask I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Trip theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Avocado Plaza Pocket Flask Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: swashbuckling stock car No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Shimmering excitant indian lodge trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Drunken fortuitous meteor corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Drunken fortuitous meteor corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: copper internet-worthy athletic conference kitty http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Drunken fortuitous meteor corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: copper internet-worthy athletic conference kitty looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Iridescent center genital piercing Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Iridescent center genital piercing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Passionate greedy state tattoo holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Hairraiser outnumbered water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: beady-eyed glassy coffee pot idiot Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Ruddy University Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: cerebral casino This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Glittery locale coldplay fan In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: cerebral casino cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: supple mauve sanctuary ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Shimmering excitant indian lodge trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Wine laser beams point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: dashing rigpig Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Curious Adulterous Dog Poop Base Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: chrome aphrodisiac area mad-dog skullcap LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Marvelous Business Firm Pervert Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Green appetizing national philosopher-king September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: angry charismatic locus September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: ocher whorehouse police squad god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: sick boiling water XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Contagious crystalline halford prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Light kitchen selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Light kitchen selfie The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Violet Self-centered Old Irish Cottage This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Scarlet liquid oxygen toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: lemon razzle mother crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Marvelous Business Firm Pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: high-end associate den This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Self-absorbed Zippy Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Pearly Big Orchestra Pit Shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: talented cuckoldry masturbator Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: laughsome apoplectic main people half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Curious Adulterous Dog Poop Base close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Shimmering excitant indian lodge trust fund Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: sick boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: vibrant poppy menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: razzmatazz stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: lascivious maniacal jewess hunting ground You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Aromatic bisexual persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: crusty milk Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: rose bespoke clown scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Light kitchen selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: insecure bull headed place of business range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Green appetizing national philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: histrionic orchid senate trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: sick boiling water GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: insecure bull headed place of business range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Curious Adulterous Dog Poop Base it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: beady-eyed glassy coffee pot idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Thriller market twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: gay floppy abode community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: hyperactive toilet seat nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Bossy Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: dun cruise ship cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: federal gold people who are hurt Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: galvanic psychic stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: citrine legal warrant 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Thriller market twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Shimmering excitant indian lodge trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: cerebral casino this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: hairless library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Irradiated Office Half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Arousing Dark Site Famous Landscape Painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: vigorous saffron idea he suggested you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Elite principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: odious lettuce newt Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: ocher whorehouse police squad bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Ivory pozpig mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Spectacular maroon elastic band kitty cat ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Indecent Dilemma International Law Enforcement Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Light kitchen selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: sepia hall legend They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: mahogany organic girlfriend tank Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: hyperactive toilet seat nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Bossy Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Chest-beating Crimson Institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: laughsome apoplectic main people GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Bistre aggressive piazza https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: ocher whorehouse police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Chest-beating Crimson Institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: ocher whorehouse police squad truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Pearly Big Orchestra Pit Shitlib TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: coiffed underhanded lodge turdskin I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Pearly Big Orchestra Pit Shitlib it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Grizzly ticket booth goal in life https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Yellow church this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: sick boiling water One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Trip theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: nursing home gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: very tactful chapel bbw credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: fiercely-loyal hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Sticky Deep Space Travel Guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Coral mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: soul-stirring offensive parlour cuck Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: ocher whorehouse police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Contagious crystalline halford prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: adventurous house It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: ocher whorehouse police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: angry charismatic locus Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Slate Candlestick Maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: ocher whorehouse police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Trip theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: ocher whorehouse police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: zombie-like at-the-ready voyeur circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Slate Candlestick Maker There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: emerald black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: sick boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Carmine internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: supple mauve sanctuary ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: supple mauve sanctuary ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: tan shrine really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: supple mauve sanctuary ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: sick boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: idiotic wonderful ratface Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Know-it-all wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Cream church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: emerald black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Metal Reading Party Keepsake Machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Thriller market twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: unhinged preventive strike dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: unhinged preventive strike dingle berry https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Primrose Gas Station Queen Of The Night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Trip theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: emerald black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Hospital Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Tantric Temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: startled national security agency sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: step-uncle's house 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: idiotic wonderful ratface A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: transparent jet-lagged trailer park sweet tailpipe https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: cerebral casino why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Cream church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: lemon razzle mother crackhouse FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Cream church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Cream church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: idiotic wonderful ratface One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Cream church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Bossy Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: beady-eyed glassy coffee pot idiot 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: beady-eyed glassy coffee pot idiot https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Contagious crystalline halford prole Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Bossy Weed Whacker The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: property digit ratio He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: lime faggot firefighter brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: ultramarine 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: white Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Yellow church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Heady Cordovan Deer Antler ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: Obsidian Shaky i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: lime faggot firefighter brunch Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#50060136) |
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Date: September 22nd, 2026 2:45 PM Author: chopped manlet (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#50149615) |