Guy who predicted Kamala's polling lead here; shes fuct
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:23 PM Author: zombie-like wrinkle hissy fit
I know. You have encyclopedic knowledge of the disadvantages. Just like everyone else. Congrats.
You have no idea what advantages she had though. That's why you never predicted her polling surge. You still don't know why that happened. That's why you're weak. That's why you're easy to defeat by anyone who's not as retarded as Kamala.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48123170) |
Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:20 PM Author: Mahogany Wild Nursing Home Fortuitous Meteor
There were two spikes in polling for her. One when she entered the race, leading to a massive burst in response bias as Super Democrats who finally had hope for the first time in this election cycle flooded the polls. She was polling around 99/1 with Democrats during this time and the best she could pull together with D+3-D+7 samples was a +3% on average. Second spike happened after the debate, but that one deflated much more quickly.
Could she win? Maybe. It would require levels of Democratic turnout not seen since Obama. I have seen zero metrics to suggest that.
The real truth is that the election has probably been decided since January (or June). Political Science Academics Predicted the 2016 election result to within 0.1% up to Five months prior to the election, and polling aggregations 11 months before the 2020 election. From their study:
“It seems that the leads of Biden and Clinton on Jan 31st were highly predictive for the (popular vote) final result in November. Biden won by 4.5 and Clinton won by 2.1.”
On January 1st 2024 the Real Clear Politics Aggregate stood at Trump 46.6% Biden 44.3%. This was of course long before the campaigns commenced, and the economy would have been the driving factor behind Trump’s lead at that point.
If the 2016 analysis which showed June was the deciding month the final June aggregate was Trump 46.8 Biden 44.9%
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48123157) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 4:38 PM Author: titillating awkward ticket booth
"It would require levels of Democratic turnout not seen since Obama. I have seen zero metrics to suggest that."
You mean levels of turnout not seen since Biden right? Everyone knows Biden got significantly higher turnout than obama. Easy to see why given what a strong candidate biden was at the time (unlike now after that shocking debate performance where Truth was finally laid bare to the electorate).
Per politifact:
"In 2020, 66.2% of the eligible population voted. In 2008, turnout was 61.6%."
You know its true since its right there in the name. PolitiFACT.
it similarly follows that given Kamala is a much stronger candidate than Biden, who was in a very literal sense historicaly the strongest democrat party candidate in history, that it is not far fetched whatsoever for Kamala to garner similar turnout or probably even greater turnout levels. For many reasons this will of course be entirely localized in a few key cities just like biden's support was. But hey, thats just demographics sorry cons.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48124247) |
Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:24 PM Author: ocher stimulating legend
no actual humans are voting for this person
it's all flame
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48123175) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 4:39 PM Author: zombie-like wrinkle hissy fit
Trump was leading by a country mile throughout most of the summer. However, whenever anyone mentioned the possibility of Kamala stepping in, literally everyone, libs and cons in unison, would say "but she got zero votes in the primaries. She can't win." Libs were INSISTING that Biden stay in.
During this time I was saying as loudly as I could to anyone who would listen that Kamala would dominate the polls if she were subbed in. No one believed me. Even when it was happening no one believed the poll numbers were real. Even now, as Trump's poll numbers rise, people are claiming the old polls were FAKE.
What really happened is that Kamala squandered a yuge natural advantage. The gun comment to Oprah was devastating because of the violent imagery in conjures up, and the fact that Kamala seemed aware that what she was saying was really fucking stupid. That wasn't her only self-inflicted wound either, it's just the worst one I noticed. I've never seen someone literally say "my staff will deal with that later."
But also, that whole interview was staged really poorly. Look at ANY given image and ask yourself what two colors dominate: orange and brown, the two least pleasant colors anyone wants to see. That whole interview looked like puke. Oprah looked like a monster and Kamala looked old and tuned out, like she was barely listening to the questions. Look at her body posture. She can't even sit right.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48124253) |
Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:02 PM Author: gold vigorous step-uncle's house
Shitcons refuse to believe that a great portion of this country hates Trump and wants any competent alternative
Your vote doesn’t count double because you love Trump so much you threw him a boat parade
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48124329) |
Date: September 24th, 2024 8:13 AM Author: Blue spot rigpig
she's soooooooooooooo done here:
Tuesday, September 24
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
USA Today/Suffolk
Harris 48, Trump 45
Harris
+3
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris
Elon University
Trump 45, Harris 46
Harris
+1
National: Trump vs. Harris
Morning Consult
Harris 50, Trump 45
Harris
+5
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310905",#48125999)
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