Suspicious bets on Maduro’s removal raise eyebrows as user nets over US$400,000

User set up account on online prediction platform eight days ago and made series of wagers predicting US action against Venezuela

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Fire rises from a Venezuelan military complex in Caracas on January 3, after US forces captured the country’s leader, Nicolas Maduro. Photo: AFP

Mia Nurmamat

Published: 8:30pm, 4 Jan 2026

A new user on the prediction market Polymarket has attracted attention after winning hundreds of thousands of dollars on bets that appeared to predict the United States’ seizure of Venezuela’s leader, Nicolas Maduro.

The anonymous user set up an account on the platform eight days ago and then placed a series of wagers worth nearly US$34,000 before the assault, which had raked in profits of more than US$409,000 by Sunday afternoon, Polymarket data showed.

The wagers included predictions that Maduro would be out of office by January 31, as well as that the US would invoke war powers against Venezuela, send troops to the country, or invade by the same date, according to the platform’s records.

A US$32,537 bet on the Venezuelan president being ousted generated returns of more than 1,240 per cent for the user in less than a day, netting them over US$404,000. The account’s other, smaller wagers related to US military action against Venezuela posted returns of between 214 per cent and 985 per cent.

The trading activity has sparked widespread discussion on social media and fuelled speculation that the user had access to inside information, with one post raising concerns about potential insider trading receiving nearly 7.3 million views on X.

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Betting related to Maduro leaving office surged on Polymarket in the minutes before the US strikes took place, causing the prediction’s likelihood score to shoot up, according to the platform’s pricing data.

After hovering below 6 per cent for most of the week, the score began climbing at around 1.15am and reached roughly 12.5 per cent by 1.50am, just before the first reports of explosions in Caracas emerged.

Roughly US$56.6 million was wagered on contracts linked to Maduro’s removal from office on Polymarket, with US$11 million of that tied to the January 31 deadline. Separate contracts tied to earlier dates – namely, November 30 and December 31 – drew total bets of US$5.5 million and US$34.6 million, respectively.

Maduro and his wife were seized by US forces during a raid on Caracas in the early hours of Saturday morning. The Venezuelan leader has now been taken into custody in the US, where he is expected to be tried on narcoterrorism and weapons possession charges.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5817170&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#49561251)

Narcoterrorism I get but surely we’re not trying him over possessing guns… in Venezuela?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5817170&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#49561853)

How i made 80,000$ in a single night using @Polymarket

Basically ever since the US brought their largest aircraft carrier i knew a strike was 100% going to happen, but i did not know when. So i built a vibe coded bot to track the dominos pizza orders around the pentagon because it is known heavy pizza ordering at weird hours = pentagon people working over time

The moment the pizza indicator bot spotted an unusal activity i was alerted on my phone and immediately purchased as many “will the us strike venzuala shared on polymarket.

GG and thanks for playing!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5817170&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#49561339)

Highly Profitable Larper 🇮🇱 Parody account war crime gcr she/her

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5817170&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#49561341)