The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| stubborn dashing field | 12/10/15 |
| Chestnut Athletic Conference | 12/12/15 |
| stubborn dashing field | 01/02/17 |
| provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce | 01/06/16 |
| Histrionic rough-skinned gaping | 01/06/16 |
| Histrionic rough-skinned gaping | 06/05/16 |
| Talented Yapping Background Story State | 03/26/16 |
| sickened garrison turdskin | 01/02/17 |
| Bat shit crazy step-uncle's house | 10/25/18 |
| Peach Bateful Stage Reading Party | 12/10/15 |
| Razzmatazz piazza | 12/10/15 |
| dead effete clown | 12/10/15 |
| Exhilarant Dragon Indian Lodge | 12/10/15 |
| Tan site gay wizard | 12/15/15 |
| buff area hunting ground | 12/10/15 |
| Bearded point sweet tailpipe | 12/10/15 |
| Vibrant godawful sandwich | 12/10/15 |
| Fear-inspiring adventurous stead | 12/11/15 |
| Pea-brained Shrine Sneaky Criminal | 12/12/15 |
| Cruel-hearted vigorous theater stage | 12/16/15 |
| federal cruise ship | 01/04/16 |
| drunken nighttime locale | 11/09/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 12/11/15 |
| spruce autistic dilemma foreskin | 12/11/15 |
| bright fiercely-loyal rigor lay | 12/11/15 |
| Fear-inspiring adventurous stead | 12/11/15 |
| Multi-colored Submissive Chad Travel Guidebook | 12/12/15 |
| brilliant pontificating fortuitous meteor | 01/25/16 |
| Maroon beady-eyed people who are hurt | 11/10/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 12/12/15 |
| insane corner | 12/12/15 |
| spectacular puppy | 12/12/15 |
| adulterous hell | 12/12/15 |
| misunderstood meetinghouse | 12/15/15 |
| fragrant sapphire den personal credit line | 12/21/15 |
| alcoholic insanely creepy bawdyhouse cuck | 12/12/15 |
| confused pink kitty market | 12/12/15 |
| Aqua ceo patrolman | 12/12/15 |
| Henna dysfunction | 12/12/15 |
| Mentally impaired heady legend gas station | 12/12/15 |
| Aromatic hideous tank goal in life | 12/12/15 |
| Bearded point sweet tailpipe | 12/15/15 |
| Bearded point sweet tailpipe | 12/16/15 |
| crusty plaza jew | 12/15/15 |
| boyish geriatric property associate | 12/15/15 |
| talking hot half-breed school | 12/15/15 |
| pearly offensive casino | 12/15/15 |
| Laughsome circlehead rehab | 12/15/15 |
| ruby wonderful mental disorder heaven | 12/15/15 |
| stubborn dashing field | 12/15/15 |
| stubborn dashing field | 12/15/15 |
| stubborn dashing field | 12/15/15 |
| stubborn dashing field | 12/15/15 |
| stubborn dashing field | 12/15/15 |
| blue excitant public bath feces | 01/05/16 |
| brilliant pontificating fortuitous meteor | 01/25/16 |
| Milky abode stock car | 12/17/16 |
| marvelous frum idiot | 05/18/16 |
| comical gold partner mother | 08/12/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 11/09/16 |
| green aphrodisiac box office | 11/09/16 |
| Mewling glittery orchestra pit cumskin | 11/09/16 |
| walnut parlour macaca | 10/22/20 |
| Carnelian useless brakes | 12/15/15 |
| High-end Halford Business Firm | 12/16/15 |
| floppy organic girlfriend hall | 12/16/15 |
| racy dun university juggernaut | 12/16/15 |
| mint crackhouse | 12/16/15 |
| mint crackhouse | 12/17/15 |
| Flesh thriller son of senegal tanning salon | 12/18/15 |
| provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce | 01/06/16 |
| Passionate water buffalo place of business | 12/18/15 |
| mint crackhouse | 12/21/15 |
| mint crackhouse | 12/21/15 |
| fragrant sapphire den personal credit line | 12/21/15 |
| mint crackhouse | 12/30/15 |
| mint crackhouse | 12/30/15 |
| mint crackhouse | 01/04/16 |
| federal cruise ship | 01/04/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 01/05/16 |
| brilliant pontificating fortuitous meteor | 01/25/16 |
| Flesh thriller son of senegal tanning salon | 01/05/16 |
| olive bespoke nowag | 01/05/16 |
| Impertinent Appetizing Senate | 01/05/16 |
| Zombie-like dull stag film jewess | 01/05/16 |
| Exciting Faggot Firefighter New Version | 01/05/16 |
| Zombie-like dull stag film jewess | 01/05/16 |
| provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce | 01/06/16 |
| Zombie-like dull stag film jewess | 01/06/16 |
| Exciting Faggot Firefighter New Version | 01/05/16 |
| comical gold partner mother | 01/06/16 |
| fragrant sapphire den personal credit line | 01/07/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 01/08/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 01/08/16 |
| fragrant sapphire den personal credit line | 01/08/16 |
| Flesh thriller son of senegal tanning salon | 01/09/16 |
| fragrant sapphire den personal credit line | 01/10/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 01/18/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 01/19/16 |
| Flesh thriller son of senegal tanning salon | 01/21/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 01/25/16 |
| Soul-stirring free-loading regret | 01/25/16 |
| brilliant pontificating fortuitous meteor | 01/25/16 |
| Soul-stirring free-loading regret | 02/09/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 09/06/16 |
| provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce | 11/05/18 |
| Amber anal skinny woman | 01/29/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 02/01/16 |
| Hairraiser Quadroon | 02/01/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 02/01/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 02/07/16 |
| olive bespoke nowag | 02/09/16 |
| orchid parlor | 02/09/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 02/20/16 |
| stirring boltzmann | 02/20/16 |
| marvelous frum idiot | 02/24/16 |
| orange kitchen | 02/24/16 |
| House-broken Locus Pocket Flask | 02/27/16 |
| crusty plaza jew | 03/09/16 |
| Contagious navy electric furnace church | 03/15/16 |
| dead effete clown | 03/15/16 |
| boyish geriatric property associate | 03/16/16 |
| Cheese-eating Police Squad Forum | 02/24/16 |
| Burgundy diverse space factory reset button | 02/24/16 |
| boyish geriatric property associate | 07/21/16 |
| supple shitlib | 02/24/16 |
| dead effete clown | 02/27/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/02/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/04/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/09/16 |
| olive bespoke nowag | 03/09/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/15/16 |
| marvelous frum idiot | 03/15/16 |
| emerald toaster | 03/15/16 |
| coiffed trailer park party of the first part | 03/15/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/16/16 |
| Bearded point sweet tailpipe | 03/16/16 |
| green aphrodisiac box office | 03/23/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/23/16 |
| Aqua ceo patrolman | 03/26/16 |
| haunting jap potus | 03/26/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/26/16 |
| blue excitant public bath feces | 03/28/16 |
| green aphrodisiac box office | 03/28/16 |
| Razzmatazz piazza | 03/28/16 |
| comical gold partner mother | 08/12/16 |
| provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce | 11/05/18 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/28/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/29/16 |
| Lascivious frozen theater ratface | 03/29/16 |
| Lascivious frozen theater ratface | 03/29/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/29/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/29/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 04/01/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 04/04/16 |
| Lascivious frozen theater ratface | 04/15/16 |
| charcoal school cafeteria | 04/15/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 04/19/16 |
| outnumbered spot | 04/20/16 |
| Coral Slippery Dingle Berry | 04/20/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 04/24/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 04/25/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 04/26/16 |
| razzle-dazzle mediation | 04/26/16 |
| slap-happy wild prole | 04/30/16 |
| titillating whorehouse becky | 05/01/16 |
| titillating whorehouse becky | 11/07/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 05/02/16 |
| green aphrodisiac box office | 05/02/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 05/03/16 |
| motley kitty cat | 05/03/16 |
| Razzle Awkward Base | 05/03/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 05/04/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 05/04/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 05/05/16 |
| Henna dysfunction | 05/05/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 05/05/16 |
| Burgundy diverse space factory reset button | 05/05/16 |
| insane corner | 05/18/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 05/18/16 |
| marvelous frum idiot | 05/18/16 |
| insane corner | 05/18/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 05/29/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 06/20/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 06/29/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 07/14/16 |
| arousing nursing home generalized bond | 07/15/16 |
| comical gold partner mother | 07/15/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 07/17/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 07/17/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 07/21/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 07/22/16 |
| Indigo Big Friendly Grandma Station | 07/22/16 |
| Irradiated turquoise center | 07/23/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 07/24/16 |
| Hyperventilating set | 07/25/16 |
| Lascivious frozen theater ratface | 07/25/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 07/27/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 08/05/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 08/09/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 08/12/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 08/12/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 08/12/16 |
| electric shimmering hospital | 08/12/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 08/30/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 08/30/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 09/06/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 09/13/16 |
| Lascivious frozen theater ratface | 09/14/16 |
| alcoholic insanely creepy bawdyhouse cuck | 09/14/16 |
| violent crotch | 09/15/16 |
| Bossy location striped hyena | 09/15/16 |
| Histrionic rough-skinned gaping | 09/15/16 |
| Alcoholic swashbuckling gaming laptop principal's office | 09/15/16 |
| Stimulating sanctuary | 09/15/16 |
| umber love of her life | 09/19/16 |
| umber love of her life | 09/19/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 09/27/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 09/24/16 |
| mint crackhouse | 09/27/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 09/27/16 |
| Bearded point sweet tailpipe | 09/27/16 |
| blathering sepia volcanic crater | 10/08/16 |
| Cerise concupiscible multi-billionaire | 07/29/24 |
| Lascivious frozen theater ratface | 09/28/16 |
| alcoholic insanely creepy bawdyhouse cuck | 09/28/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 09/28/16 |
| Coral Slippery Dingle Berry | 09/28/16 |
| charcoal school cafeteria | 09/28/16 |
| bistre stage | 10/08/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 10/09/16 |
| Sinister Chapel Faggotry | 10/09/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 10/09/16 |
| Cracking ultramarine menage trump supporter | 10/09/16 |
| Lascivious frozen theater ratface | 10/10/16 |
| Hyperventilating set | 10/30/16 |
| comical gold partner mother | 11/01/16 |
| Alcoholic swashbuckling gaming laptop principal's office | 11/01/16 |
| Onyx institution private investor | 11/02/16 |
| pearly offensive casino | 11/02/16 |
| Lascivious frozen theater ratface | 11/07/16 |
| Cowardly galvanic idea he suggested | 11/08/16 |
| Lascivious frozen theater ratface | 11/08/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 11/08/16 |
| Lascivious frozen theater ratface | 11/08/16 |
| iridescent mood | 11/08/16 |
| trip native | 11/08/16 |
| Hairraiser Quadroon | 11/08/16 |
| umber love of her life | 11/08/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 11/08/16 |
| Vivacious jade knife pit | 11/09/16 |
| violent crotch | 11/09/16 |
| 180 Plum Black Woman Brunch | 11/09/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 11/09/16 |
| Alcoholic swashbuckling gaming laptop principal's office | 11/09/16 |
| Vivacious jade knife pit | 11/09/16 |
| Hyperventilating set | 11/09/16 |
| Henna dysfunction | 11/09/16 |
| Charismatic abnormal office | 12/03/16 |
| Maroon beady-eyed people who are hurt | 12/07/16 |
| Milky abode stock car | 12/17/16 |
| Elite library pozpig | 10/11/24 |
| Curious Chartreuse Mad-dog Skullcap Temple | 11/09/16 |
| rebellious hissy fit codepig | 11/09/16 |
| odious genital piercing address | 11/09/16 |
| Zippy cuckold | 11/09/16 |
| Charismatic abnormal office | 11/09/16 |
| comical gold partner mother | 11/09/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 11/09/16 |
| insane corner | 11/09/16 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral Flatulent National | 11/09/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 11/09/16 |
| sable toilet seat newt | 11/09/16 |
| bonkers double fault | 11/09/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 11/09/16 |
| Exhilarant Dragon Indian Lodge | 11/09/16 |
| Passionate water buffalo place of business | 11/10/16 |
| Soul-stirring free-loading regret | 11/10/16 |
| Histrionic rough-skinned gaping | 11/10/16 |
| mahogany trust fund mad cow disease | 11/10/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 11/10/16 |
| Lascivious frozen theater ratface | 11/10/16 |
| stirring boltzmann | 11/10/16 |
| umber love of her life | 11/14/16 |
| bull headed range | 11/14/16 |
| indecent indirect expression house | 12/04/16 |
| Milky abode stock car | 12/17/16 |
| Elite library pozpig | 10/11/24 |
| stubborn dashing field | 11/25/16 |
| lemon church building | 12/03/16 |
| Cracking ultramarine menage trump supporter | 12/04/16 |
| Low-t gay lodge hairy legs | 12/07/16 |
| Histrionic rough-skinned gaping | 12/07/16 |
| lemon church building | 12/07/16 |
| stubborn dashing field | 01/02/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 01/02/17 |
| stubborn dashing field | 01/02/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 01/02/17 |
| stubborn dashing field | 03/03/20 |
| Histrionic rough-skinned gaping | 01/02/17 |
| green aphrodisiac box office | 01/16/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 01/20/17 |
| mint crackhouse | 01/20/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 01/23/17 |
| bistre stage | 01/23/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 01/23/17 |
| home | 01/23/17 |
| bistre stage | 01/23/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 01/23/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 01/25/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 01/26/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 02/06/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 02/13/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 02/27/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 05/03/17 |
| mint crackhouse | 05/03/17 |
| Primrose Resort | 09/21/17 |
| dead effete clown | 01/23/17 |
| Alcoholic swashbuckling gaming laptop principal's office | 02/27/17 |
| provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce | 03/22/17 |
| mint crackhouse | 04/17/17 |
| mint crackhouse | 05/08/17 |
| stubborn dashing field | 06/20/17 |
| stubborn dashing field | 08/10/17 |
| stubborn dashing field | 10/15/17 |
| green aphrodisiac box office | 10/15/17 |
| cocky theatre | 10/15/17 |
| stubborn dashing field | 11/06/17 |
| Wine Famous Landscape Painting | 11/06/17 |
| 11/08/17 |
| Narrow-minded yarmulke | 11/08/17 |
| Brindle candlestick maker | 11/13/17 |
| green aphrodisiac box office | 12/18/17 |
| Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish | 12/18/17 |
| green aphrodisiac box office | 12/18/17 |
| stubborn dashing field | 01/30/18 |
| Histrionic rough-skinned gaping | 06/01/18 |
| mint crackhouse | 07/18/18 |
| green aphrodisiac box office | 07/19/18 |
| Stimulating sanctuary | 09/20/18 |
| mint crackhouse | 09/25/18 |
| Razzmatazz piazza | 10/06/18 |
| stubborn dashing field | 10/06/18 |
| Histrionic rough-skinned gaping | 10/25/18 |
| Bossy location striped hyena | 10/25/18 |
| brilliant pontificating fortuitous meteor | 11/05/18 |
| Histrionic rough-skinned gaping | 11/05/18 |
| provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce | 11/05/18 |
| Histrionic rough-skinned gaping | 11/05/18 |
| mint crackhouse | 01/08/19 |
| hyperactive giraffe deer antler | 02/23/19 |
| stubborn dashing field | 03/13/19 |
| brilliant pontificating fortuitous meteor | 06/24/19 |
| bbw preventive strike | 06/24/19 |
| mint crackhouse | 11/18/19 |
| Alcoholic swashbuckling gaming laptop principal's office | 02/12/20 |
| mint crackhouse | 02/12/20 |
| stubborn dashing field | 03/24/20 |
| canary liquid oxygen | 03/24/20 |
| arousing nursing home generalized bond | 04/04/20 |
| stubborn dashing field | 04/26/20 |
| stubborn dashing field | 05/13/20 |
| arousing nursing home generalized bond | 06/05/20 |
| apoplectic psychic | 06/05/20 |
| arousing nursing home generalized bond | 09/09/20 |
| Alcoholic swashbuckling gaming laptop principal's office | 09/09/20 |
| Peach Bateful Stage Reading Party | 09/09/20 |
| judgmental | 09/12/20 |
| slate sound barrier | 09/24/20 |
| bbw preventive strike | 10/09/20 |
| green aphrodisiac box office | 10/10/20 |
| mildly autistic | 10/22/20 |
| Charismatic abnormal office | 10/22/20 |
| walnut parlour macaca | 10/22/20 |
| walnut parlour macaca | 10/22/20 |
| deep | 03/23/22 |
| stubborn dashing field | 10/27/20 |
| provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce | 10/27/20 |
| bbw preventive strike | 10/30/20 |
| green aphrodisiac box office | 11/03/20 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/22/22 |
| Violet Doctorate | 03/23/22 |
| lake french brethren | 03/23/22 |
| Poppy | 03/23/22 |
| mint crackhouse | 07/25/22 |
| Peach Bateful Stage Reading Party | 07/25/22 |
| mint crackhouse | 10/23/22 |
| stubborn dashing field | 11/16/22 |
| stubborn dashing field | 04/25/23 |
| insane corner | 04/25/23 |
| slate sound barrier | 04/29/23 |
| Cerise concupiscible multi-billionaire | 05/28/23 |
| mint crackhouse | 02/22/24 |
| slate sound barrier | 02/23/24 |
| mint crackhouse | 05/23/24 |
| mint crackhouse | 08/26/24 |
| slate sound barrier | 09/13/24 |
| Peach Bateful Stage Reading Party | 09/13/24 |
| slate sound barrier | 10/18/24 |
| Elite library pozpig | 10/11/24 |
| mint crackhouse | 11/06/24 |
| Henna dysfunction | 03/04/25 |
| Henna dysfunction | 03/04/25 |
| Stimulating sanctuary | 03/04/25 |
| Elite library pozpig | 03/04/25 |
| Overrated Affirmative Action | 03/04/25 |
| fanboi incel | 03/05/25 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/07/25 |
| Sooty arrogant community account | 03/07/25 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/08/25 |
| nudist hominid | 03/08/25 |
| mint crackhouse | 03/08/25 |
| dead effete clown | 02/18/26 |
| mint crackhouse | 05/15/26 |
| gaped elastic band | 05/17/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: stubborn dashing field December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Chestnut Athletic Conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Histrionic rough-skinned gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Histrionic rough-skinned gaping another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Talented Yapping Background Story State 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: sickened garrison turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Bat shit crazy step-uncle's house "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Peach Bateful Stage Reading Party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Razzmatazz piazza 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: dead effete clown 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Exhilarant Dragon Indian Lodge Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Tan site gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: buff area hunting ground FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Bearded point sweet tailpipe Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Vibrant godawful sandwich Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Fear-inspiring adventurous stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Pea-brained Shrine Sneaky Criminal Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Cruel-hearted vigorous theater stage Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: federal cruise ship Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: drunken nighttime locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: bright fiercely-loyal rigor lay 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Fear-inspiring adventurous stead November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Multi-colored Submissive Chad Travel Guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: brilliant pontificating fortuitous meteor Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Maroon beady-eyed people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: spectacular puppy lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: adulterous hell March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: misunderstood meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: fragrant sapphire den personal credit line 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: alcoholic insanely creepy bawdyhouse cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: confused pink kitty market lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Aqua ceo patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Henna dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Mentally impaired heady legend gas station Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Aromatic hideous tank goal in life Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Bearded point sweet tailpipe OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Bearded point sweet tailpipe And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: crusty plaza jew 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: boyish geriatric property associate fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: talking hot half-breed school I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: pearly offensive casino 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Laughsome circlehead rehab February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: ruby wonderful mental disorder heaven You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: stubborn dashing field Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: stubborn dashing field http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: stubborn dashing field http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: stubborn dashing field http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: stubborn dashing field http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: blue excitant public bath feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: brilliant pontificating fortuitous meteor Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Milky abode stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: marvelous frum idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: comical gold partner mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: stubborn dashing field http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: green aphrodisiac box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Mewling glittery orchestra pit cumskin Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: walnut parlour macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Carnelian useless brakes This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: High-end Halford Business Firm 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: floppy organic girlfriend hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: racy dun university juggernaut Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: mint crackhouse Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: mint crackhouse Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Flesh thriller son of senegal tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Passionate water buffalo place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: mint crackhouse Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: mint crackhouse "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: fragrant sapphire den personal credit line 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: mint crackhouse "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: mint crackhouse One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: mint crackhouse This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: federal cruise ship flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: stubborn dashing field ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: brilliant pontificating fortuitous meteor Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Flesh thriller son of senegal tanning salon From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: olive bespoke nowag 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Impertinent Appetizing Senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Zombie-like dull stag film jewess An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Exciting Faggot Firefighter New Version 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Zombie-like dull stag film jewess I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Zombie-like dull stag film jewess Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Exciting Faggot Firefighter New Version No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: comical gold partner mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: fragrant sapphire den personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: mint crackhouse “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: fragrant sapphire den personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Flesh thriller son of senegal tanning salon http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: fragrant sapphire den personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: mint crackhouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: mint crackhouse Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Flesh thriller son of senegal tanning salon looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Soul-stirring free-loading regret 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29677863) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: brilliant pontificating fortuitous meteor You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29677913) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Soul-stirring free-loading regret No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29791782) |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31345881) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#37162047) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29727124) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: Hairraiser Quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29727197) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29732588) |
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Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29771453) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: olive bespoke nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29791735) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: orchid parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29791763) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29877406) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: stirring boltzmann OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29877434) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: marvelous frum idiot PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29903568) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: orange kitchen The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29903615) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: House-broken Locus Pocket Flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29931652) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: crusty plaza jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30015868) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Contagious navy electric furnace church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30066562) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: dead effete clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30066681) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: boyish geriatric property associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30070592) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: Cheese-eating Police Squad Forum hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Burgundy diverse space factory reset button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29904083) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: boyish geriatric property associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30987707) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: supple shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29904074) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: dead effete clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29931637) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29960115) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: olive bespoke nowag yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: marvelous frum idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30065970) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: emerald toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30066291) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: coiffed trailer park party of the first part truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30066549) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: mint crackhouse It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: Bearded point sweet tailpipe March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: green aphrodisiac box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Aqua ceo patrolman http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: haunting jap potus Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30140513) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: blue excitant public bath feces jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: green aphrodisiac box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Razzmatazz piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: comical gold partner mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: mint crackhouse "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: mint crackhouse "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Lascivious frozen theater ratface lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Lascivious frozen theater ratface "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: mint crackhouse http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: mint crackhouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: mint crackhouse "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Lascivious frozen theater ratface interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: charcoal school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: outnumbered spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Coral Slippery Dingle Berry I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: razzle-dazzle mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: slap-happy wild prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: titillating whorehouse becky Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: titillating whorehouse becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: green aphrodisiac box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: mint crackhouse The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: motley kitty cat holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Razzle Awkward Base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: mint crackhouse Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Henna dysfunction Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: stubborn dashing field LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Burgundy diverse space factory reset button Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: insane corner This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: marvelous frum idiot In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: insane corner cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: stubborn dashing field lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: mint crackhouse Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: mint crackhouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: arousing nursing home generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: comical gold partner mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: mint crackhouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Indigo Big Friendly Grandma Station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Irradiated turquoise center Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Hyperventilating set Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Lascivious frozen theater ratface amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: stubborn dashing field Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: mint crackhouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: stubborn dashing field THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: stubborn dashing field I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: electric shimmering hospital LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: stubborn dashing field THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: mint crackhouse Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Lascivious frozen theater ratface ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: alcoholic insanely creepy bawdyhouse cuck Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: violent crotch September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Bossy location striped hyena September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Histrionic rough-skinned gaping god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Alcoholic swashbuckling gaming laptop principal's office XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Stimulating sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: umber love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: umber love of her life The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: mint crackhouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Bearded point sweet tailpipe This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: blathering sepia volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Cerise concupiscible multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Lascivious frozen theater ratface http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: alcoholic insanely creepy bawdyhouse cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Coral Slippery Dingle Berry This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: charcoal school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: bistre stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Sinister Chapel Faggotry Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Cracking ultramarine menage trump supporter half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Lascivious frozen theater ratface nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Hyperventilating set close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: comical gold partner mother Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Alcoholic swashbuckling gaming laptop principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Onyx institution private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: pearly offensive casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Lascivious frozen theater ratface prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Cowardly galvanic idea he suggested You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Lascivious frozen theater ratface true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: stubborn dashing field ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Lascivious frozen theater ratface ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: iridescent mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: trip native Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Hairraiser Quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: umber love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Vivacious jade knife pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: violent crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: 180 Plum Black Woman Brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Alcoholic swashbuckling gaming laptop principal's office GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Vivacious jade knife pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Hyperventilating set it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Henna dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Charismatic abnormal office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Maroon beady-eyed people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Milky abode stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Elite library pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Curious Chartreuse Mad-dog Skullcap Temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: rebellious hissy fit codepig Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: odious genital piercing address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Zippy cuckold 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Charismatic abnormal office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: comical gold partner mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: insane corner this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Cerebral Flatulent National (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: sable toilet seat newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: bonkers double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: stubborn dashing field November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Exhilarant Dragon Indian Lodge you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Passionate water buffalo place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Soul-stirring free-loading regret Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Histrionic rough-skinned gaping bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: mahogany trust fund mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: stubborn dashing field sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Lascivious frozen theater ratface ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: stirring boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: umber love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: bull headed range They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: indecent indirect expression house Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Milky abode stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Elite library pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: lemon church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Cracking ultramarine menage trump supporter GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Low-t gay lodge hairy legs https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Histrionic rough-skinned gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: lemon church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Primrose Resort October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: stubborn dashing field ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Primrose Resort ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Histrionic rough-skinned gaping truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: green aphrodisiac box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Primrose Resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Primrose Resort http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: bistre stage TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Primrose Resort It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: home I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: bistre stage it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Primrose Resort The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Primrose Resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Primrose Resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Primrose Resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Primrose Resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Primrose Resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Primrose Resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Primrose Resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: dead effete clown this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Alcoholic swashbuckling gaming laptop principal's office One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: mint crackhouse https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: stubborn dashing field What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: stubborn dashing field https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: green aphrodisiac box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: cocky theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Wine Famous Landscape Painting credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Narrow-minded yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Brindle candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: green aphrodisiac box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Mind-boggling Keepsake Machete Death Wish Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: green aphrodisiac box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Histrionic rough-skinned gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: mint crackhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: green aphrodisiac box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Stimulating sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: mint crackhouse The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Razzmatazz piazza It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: stubborn dashing field lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Histrionic rough-skinned gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Bossy location striped hyena Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: brilliant pontificating fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Histrionic rough-skinned gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Histrionic rough-skinned gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: mint crackhouse What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: hyperactive giraffe deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: stubborn dashing field Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: brilliant pontificating fortuitous meteor There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: bbw preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Alcoholic swashbuckling gaming laptop principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: canary liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: arousing nursing home generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: stubborn dashing field https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: arousing nursing home generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: apoplectic psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: arousing nursing home generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Alcoholic swashbuckling gaming laptop principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Peach Bateful Stage Reading Party Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: judgmental (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: slate sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: bbw preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: green aphrodisiac box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: mildly autistic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Charismatic abnormal office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: walnut parlour macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: walnut parlour macaca https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: deep (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: stubborn dashing field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: provocative idiotic ticket booth lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: bbw preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: green aphrodisiac box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Violet Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: lake french brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Poppy 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Peach Bateful Stage Reading Party A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: stubborn dashing field Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: stubborn dashing field https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: insane corner why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: slate sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Cerise concupiscible multi-billionaire FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: slate sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: mint crackhouse https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: slate sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Peach Bateful Stage Reading Party One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: slate sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Elite library pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Henna dysfunction 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Henna dysfunction https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Stimulating sanctuary Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Elite library pozpig The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Overrated Affirmative Action He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: fanboi incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: mint crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Sooty arrogant community account 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: mint crackhouse "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: nudist hominid Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: mint crackhouse Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: dead effete clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310906#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: mint crackhouse ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: gaped elastic band i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |