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Hypo: $10M but your house will catch fire overnight with you inside
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Date: January 20th, 2026 1:59 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution You get $10M tax free today.
At some point in the next 6 years--you don't know exactly when--your primary residence will catch on fire overnight. It will be a night you are home and a time you are asleep. You must spend at least 183 nights per year in your primary residence so you can't outrun this or finagle the fire onto a certain night.
No smoke alarms, etc., will go off until the fire is sufficiently large that a standard home fire extinguisher could not put it out. Once the fire reaches that point, your normal systems (e.g., smoke detector) will engage and might wake you.
You may keep your current smoke alarms, home alarm system, etc. and keep them up to date. You may not install any new fire warning or suppression systems.
Do you accept? |
Date: January 20th, 2026 2:00 PM Author: aphrodisiac bull headed shitlib business firm would keep my current fire alarms and do it lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49603827) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 2:46 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution 180
Would you make any changes in your life? Like get your valuables out of your house? |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 2:48 PM Author: aphrodisiac bull headed shitlib business firm am i allowed to? i thought i couldnt make changes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49603941) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 2:51 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution You can't add new fire alarms and sprinklers or anything like that. If you want to put your stuff in storage of move your kids to a different house, you can do that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49603955) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 2:52 PM Author: aphrodisiac bull headed shitlib business firm lol then yeah id definitely move kids and animals and stuff. can i put a firepole outside my bedroom window. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49603962) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 2:55 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution You can do that for fun, but you can't use it in the event of an actual fire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49603974) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:16 PM Author: duck-like rambunctious native wtf, why not? Truly bizarre hypo. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604066) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:18 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution What do you mean? The hypo is about whether you would take the risk of a significant house fire in exchange for $10M. Taking actions to reduce the risk of the fire changes the balance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604078) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:26 PM Author: swollen bearded range you said no new fire warning and suppression! installing additional fire escape systems does not qualify! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604094) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:39 PM Author: Cordovan hideous organic girlfriend op’s djinn/gypsy/monkey’s paw skills need a little polishing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604127) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:16 PM Author: duck-like rambunctious native Oh, if I can move my kids to a different house, sure I accept. Will install fire escape equipment everywhere. Will also take out like five insurance policies. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604064) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 4:23 PM Author: spruce diverse gas station skinny woman massive amounts of insurance fraud seems like a no brainer here (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604243) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 2:04 PM Author: Cordovan hideous organic girlfriend good hypo. does the fire start spontaneously or from a specific physical event? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49603835) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 2:45 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution It will start from a physical event--An ember from the fireplace, an appliance malfunction, a rat chewing through a wire and generating some sparks within a wall...
Does that change your answer? Are you in? |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:01 PM Author: Cordovan hideous organic girlfriend if i can move my kids and valuables out of my house this is a no-brainer. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604002) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:20 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution You can move them out, but you need to stay. How much would you miss living with them over the next 6 years? What about the risk of them growing up as orphans? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604083) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:34 PM Author: Cordovan hideous organic girlfriend i’d buy the house next door and sleep there 182 nights a year. i’d go sleep by myself in the old house for the requisite number of days. this honestly sounds kind of 180 and i might would do it anyway if i had $10 million. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604114) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 2:22 PM Author: swollen bearded range easiest hypo ever from you: of course.
id just make sure any unreplacables are in storage or fireproof safes. my gf and dogs always sleep in the bedroom, and id just make sure window egress is possible. my bedroom is on the first floor so mb that makes the typo easier, but even if it wasnt id just make sure window egress is easy. install fire escape ladders on all second story rooms. if i have kids in the interim ill make sure i have entry into their room through my bedroom.
mb my gf thinks im a neurotic faggot for being mister fire safety guy, but one of my bffs houses burnt down so i have a plausible justification she'll tolerate. plus once the house does burn down ill be a cassandra proven right. and on top of the $10m i can really juice up the fire insurance value. the hardest part of this hypo is thinking about how i can maximize the inevitable insurance claim without drawing suspicion its jewish lightning. |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 2:47 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution You wouldn't get scared and neurotic every single night? Fires can spread quickly, so you might be done here before you realize it.
And what if the fire is located between your room and your hypothetical children's rooms? |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:08 PM Author: swollen bearded range no i wouldnt be scared. people wake up from fires and i have a bunch of smoke alarms id be autistic about making sure remain functioning. even with the fire inevitable, the risk of not waking up seems about on par with a fatal car accident -- a risk so small theres no sense being neurotic and not driving to mitigate.
im not planning on trying for kids for at least a year, so the oldest one could be is like 4. for the first couple years i could just be a neurotic parent and have them sleep in our room or an adjoining one. also, since you set a time limit on this ill know likelihood of the fire of damacles happening. if we get to year 5 id invent some reason I'm always up late and active. become a mole person who sleeps in the afternoon while gf is awake. |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 2:36 PM Author: internet-worthy center genital piercing I'll just live in an igloo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49603901) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 2:52 PM Author: Transparent swashbuckling philosopher-king theatre Fuck. Stole my idea. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49603958) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:07 PM Author: Opaque bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604028) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:17 PM Author: duck-like rambunctious native To meet the conditions of the hypo the fire would have to burn so hot you'd be incinerated instantly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604072) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 2:50 PM Author: Deranged sandwich I'd just stay up all night working and gooning and sleep all day. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49603950) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:09 PM Author: Cordovan hideous organic girlfriend cr, but where will you get $10 million? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604037) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:06 PM Author: stimulating shaky deer antler I lived through a house fire as a toddler and I turned out normal aside from poasting here (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604024) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:20 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution What happened? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604085) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:42 PM Author: Demanding Mediation Useless Brakes His dad took the hypo on the darpanet bort in the late 80s (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604137) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 4:48 PM Author: duck-like rambunctious native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604311) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 10:59 PM Author: Matthias of Redwall Did Nothing Wrong #Cornflower (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49605292) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 4:08 PM Author: stimulating shaky deer antler Mom left an iron plugged in iirc (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604201) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 5:59 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution On purpose? Subconsciously on purpose?
Was she the type of person to act carelessly? |
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Date: January 21st, 2026 3:38 AM Author: goy orbison Oh yeah she is very absentminded always losing stuff too just a bird brain love her (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49605568) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:20 PM Author: charismatic temple Large bay windows in the master. The only problem is that the whole family has to sleep in one room and perhaps even one bed, that is right by the window.
Doable for 6 years imho. Fuck your wife in a hotel room (assuming 40+ year olds still fuck). $10M is life-changing money. |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 4:17 PM Author: spruce diverse gas station skinny woman buy another house in your neighborhood and have your family stay there. I would just put my bed next to my patio door and leave it plus all the windows open when it was warm enough to do so. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604222) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:29 PM Author: marvelous hell pozpig Is there a way I can ensure my family is also in the house at the time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604098) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 4:50 PM Author: duck-like rambunctious native Found Disco's pumo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604314) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 7:43 PM Author: Chrome Motley Headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604943) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:38 PM Author: Soul-stirring Affirmative Action School Just live in Hawaii or south Florida and make sure your bedroom is a half indoor half outdoor room that is fire safe. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604125) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:41 PM Author: Razzmatazz spot I would just hire a firefighter to keep watch while I'm asleep and, who knows, maybe one thing will lead to another and he'll let me suck his dick (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604131) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 4:50 PM Author: duck-like rambunctious native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604316) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 3:46 PM Author: Demanding Mediation Useless Brakes $10mm is too much, this is a no brainer. House fires are not dangerous nowadays (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604151) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 4:52 PM Author: duck-like rambunctious native 2,580 people died in one- or two-family home fires in the United States in 2024, the most recent full year for which complete data is available from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA). This accounts for about 66% of all reported civilian fire deaths that year. NFPA data groups one-family (single-family) and two-family (duplex) dwellings together, as two-family structures represent a small share of incidents. Single-family homes make up the vast majority of these, with historical trends showing death rates of around 7.6 per million residents in single-family homes (compared to much lower rates in multifamily buildings). For context:
Total U.S. civilian fire deaths in 2024: ~3,910. Preliminary media reports for 2025 (through December 23) noted ~2,070 home fire deaths overall, but full NFPA analysis for 2025 won't be available until late 2026.
Sources: NFPA's Fire Loss in the United States During 2024 report (published October 2025). |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 4:56 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604328) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 4:57 PM Author: Transparent swashbuckling philosopher-king theatre So odds are higher that you get struck by lightening. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604329) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 4:59 PM Author: Razzmatazz spot Since you know your house will catch on fire, the relevant comparison is what percent of people in a housefire actually die from it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604332) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 5:00 PM Author: duck-like rambunctious native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604339) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 5:03 PM Author: duck-like rambunctious native 0.8% of reported one- or two-family home structure fires resulted in at least one civilian fatality in 2024, the most recent full year with complete data from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA). This equates to roughly 1 fatal fire for every 125 reported fires. These "reported" fires refer to significant incidents requiring a fire department response, aligning with "significant/substantial" fires (minor events like small kitchen flare-ups are typically handled without calling firefighters and aren't included in NFPA counts).
So it seems like the odds are probably more like 5-15 percent for a fire of the size required by OP. |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 5:21 PM Author: Cordovan hideous organic girlfriend i would think op’s description meets the standard of a reportable fire, so no need to increase the base odds. but then you should adjust downward for children, drunks, elderly, retards, etc., which i am sure constitute the vast majority of fatalities. i would bet on myself at those odds. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604435) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 6:02 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution One reason to adjust upwards is that, in the hypo, you're very likely not going to know the fire started until it's already out of control. In a lot of the cases in that report, people would have heard the smoke detector going off and gtfo or used a fire extinguisher before the fire spread too much. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604572) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 7:19 PM Author: Cordovan hideous organic girlfriend i mean, there’s out of control and then there’s out of control. op specifies “sufficiently large that a standard home fire extinguisher could not put it out.” in the context of a house fire, it would be fair to consider a fire that size as being “out of control,” but i can still imagine a very wide gulf between that threshold and something that is legitimately life-threatening. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604731) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 5:28 PM Author: Razzmatazz spot Oh, geez, my instinct was to take this but with that data then yeah I'm going for it.
Plus in the hypo you KNOW the fire is coming and can sleep close to a first story window. Your average normal every day fag has no reason to be that cautious and no idea a fire is headed their way. EZ MONEY |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 5:55 PM Author: spruce diverse gas station skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604553) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 6:02 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution We looked at the data (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604573) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 6:07 PM Author: swollen bearded range this makes the hypo an even easier yes. obviously the foreknowledge will substantially mitigate, but i also assume a large % of housefires are from feckless proles who do shit like pass out with a cigarette in their mouth with smoke detectors low-battery beeping for months.
i wonder what % of total-loss, completely random fires in umc homes result in a fatality? |
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Date: January 21st, 2026 11:50 AM Author: My real dad left at 11, brother. According to Grok, for total loss does the overall fatality rate jumps to 2 percent. Using reasonable inferences it says that for upper middle class homes it would be approximately .5 percent, or about 80 deaths per year. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49606120) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 5:04 PM Author: duck-like rambunctious native Lol, candy ride. 53 people were struck by lightning in 2024, so your odds of dying in a fire are at least 20-30x higher. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604347) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 5:36 PM Author: Transparent swashbuckling philosopher-king theatre (guy who dutifully reports being struck by lightening to the appropriate authorities) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604513) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 6:03 PM Author: Hairraiser garnet institution ljl are you a lightning truther? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604574) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 6:09 PM Author: swollen bearded range bro like 50x more people are struck dead by lightening every year than reflected in offical records, (((they))) just don't want you to know about it! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604580) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 5:21 PM Author: Cordovan hideous organic girlfriend (bayesian masterman) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604437) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 6:11 PM Author: swollen bearded range lol candy ride (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604583) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 5:12 PM Author: fear-inspiring address mental disorder Critical clarification I didn’t spot upthread during at least 20 seconds of skimming: can I replace the batteries in any installed but non-operational alarms in my house/apartment?
Being able to move the kids out makes this easy imo. Sleep on the ground floor with the dog in the room and the door closed. Kids and wife living elsewhere until fire, $10M, go to Vegas put it all on black, $20M and set for life. |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 5:30 PM Author: khaki azn twinkling uncleanness This is an easy yes. Downstairs master has double doors that open onto the porch. Upstairs master/gaming palace has a door out to balcony with stairs down to the ground floor. Also a closet that accesses a crawl space with a trap door down into the garage. I would feel completely safe in either room. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604479) |
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Date: January 20th, 2026 7:44 PM Author: snowy bearded antidepressant drug haunted graveyard i sleep under a bridge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49604949) |
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Date: January 21st, 2026 3:22 AM Author: .,.,,...,...,..,....,...,...,... It seems like there are lots of loopholes in this hypo that make it way too easy. For starters, if I know the fire is coming, I can just hire some dude to watch some security camera footage of my house every time I go to sleep. The minute he sees the fire, he calls me immediately and tells me to GTFO. Also, almost all fire deaths are from smoke inhalation rather than the actual flames. You could probably almost guarantee survival by sleeping in the house only for the warmest six months of the year and keeping the windows open whenever you sleep. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49605567) |
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Date: January 21st, 2026 11:51 AM Author: My real dad left at 11, brother. That’s clearly against the spirit of the hypo. Also, lol at trusting McSecurity guard to watch over you for $40k/year. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49606127) |
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Date: January 21st, 2026 1:46 PM Author: .,.,...,.,.;,.,,,:,.,.,::,.,..,:,.;,.., you get $10M up front. you could easily afford to pay $100K+ if you feel like it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310908#49606458) |