lichtman also got the 2000 election wrong. he doesn't like to talk about that.
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 8th, 2024 9:55 AM
Author: .,.,.;;,;.,..,:,,:,...,:::,...,:,.,.;.:...:.,:.::,
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630110&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48310073) |
Date: November 8th, 2024 10:24 AM
Author: .....,,,,,...,,,,,..,.,,,,,.,,.
He was wrong about 2016 too actually.
His system predicts the popular vote winner so his actual prediction was that Trump would win the popular vote. Then the media and Lichtman retcon’d his prediction afterwards to just picking “the winner”
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630110&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48310173) |
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Date: November 8th, 2024 10:58 AM
Author: .,.,.;;,;.,..,:,,:,...,:::,...,:,.,.;.:...:.,:.::,
it's hard to give him "credit" for that because he shits on people like nate silver for having probabilistic models / acknowledging the reality of chance. basically says you have to go out on a limb and commit or else you're bullshit.
i can respect him for that in a way but if he insists on fully committing and denies the reality of chance and flukes then i'm going to hold him to his prediction however things play out
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630110&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48310337) |
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