The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
If you’re a Trumpmo and the Selzer poll doesn’t have you shook, ur insane
Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:36 PM Author: Epistemic Humility Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)
2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12) 2020 President: R+7 (R+8) 2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7) 2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3) 2016 President: R+7 (R+9) 2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8) 2012 President: D+5 (D+6)
https://x.com/mattkleinonline/status/1852849716788084910?s=46 |
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:37 PM Author: "'''''"'''"""''''" She’ll be wrong this time though (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273472) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:40 PM Author: Donald MASE Trump If it’s real, then we are about to see the biggest polling miss in American electoral history and Kamala actually does have Obama ‘08 appeal. That’s what you believe. |
 |
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:42 PM Author: "'''''"'''"""''''" How is it a big miss when everyone is basically predicting a coin flip? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273501) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:46 PM Author: Donald MASE Trump If she wins by a 350+ EV landslide (and she would) predicting a coinflip would be a massive miss. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273519) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:42 PM Author: Soulja Goy hw do we know Obama actually "won"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273503) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:43 PM Author: "'''''"'''"""''''" cr did anyone see his birth certificate? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273508) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:48 PM Author: Epistemic Humility (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273520) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:40 PM Author: """'""""'' Iowa being to the left of Pennsylvania would be quite something (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273496) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:48 PM Author: Epistemic Humility (145 LSAT guy) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273522) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:42 PM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. As a Trumpmo it’s worrisome. Makes me think the pollsters that are herding are just too scared to release Harris +5 polls given the last two cycles. NYT/Siena tomorrow will be telling (though they have given Trump a lead nationally and I find it hard to believe things have shifted more than 1-2 points against him in the past couple weeks). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273506) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 8:20 AM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. Update: NYT/Siena says not to worry! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48275175) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:10 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) To be fair,
We used to have "Shy Trump Voters"... now now only do we have "Shy Kamala Voters," but we actually have "Shy Kamala Pollsters"! The bottom line is that everyone loves Kamala and hates Trump, but people are just too scared to admit that publicly because Trumpkins wield so much power in the world of finance, business, media, academia, culture, etc. Watch what happens in the secrecy and sanctity of the voting booth, though!
( -- Jewish Pumos on XO) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:44 PM Author: cowstack Yep Iowa totally shifted 15 points left in 2 years. Excellent work! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273512) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:44 PM Author: ..,,....,,.,..,,..,,...,...,,....,..., It seems preposterous to me too (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273514) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:45 PM Author: .;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;, Seniors making up the majority of that shift, apparently (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273515) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:49 PM Author: Epistemic Humility Trumpmos didn’t get vaxxed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273523) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:52 PM Author: ..,,....,,.,..,,..,,...,...,,....,..., That makes it seem even more ridiculous (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273535) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 10:21 PM Author: .....,,,,,...,,,,,..,.,,,,,.,,. I think it makes sense.
The “Trump is hitler” line of attack seems absurd but it probably legit scares a significant number of seniors. These are the same people who are tricked by scammers into believing the IRS wants them to buy Apple gift cards or their social security will be cut off. |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:07 PM Author: peeface also no other pollster can detect this shift, except this one old shitlib woman who didn't even see it herself, until suddenly three days before election day... it appears in a poll... which she won't release the crosstabs on...
|
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:50 PM Author: Diamond Dallas Trump So in 7 tries, they underpolled republicans 5x, democrats 1x, and were on target 1x. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273529) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:54 PM Author: Epistemic Humility You’re not using the word “underpolled” correctly nor do you seem to understand what margin of error is and probably have never taken stats. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273545) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:51 PM Author: Allan Lichtman's ridiculous hair system (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273532) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:52 PM Author: 718-662-5970 If shes right every other poll is wrong and both campaigns have been operating in the dark this entire time. She would, in fact, be the only right one in the entire nation of polling.
I’ll take those odds |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:56 PM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. It’s obviously not right. But if Trump wins Iowa by only four then it’s going to be a bloodbath.
NYT/Siena also doesn’t weight by recall and supposedly doesn’t herd so we’ll know tomorrow if there has been a major shift. |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 12:48 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) NYT/Sienna does weight by recall this year. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48276093) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 8:57 PM Author: Donald MASE Trump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273556) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 9:01 PM Author: .,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,;:.,.:..:.,:,::,. Campaigns aren’t using public polling. Trump’s campaign should be out blasting this poll tonight if it’s far off from their internal polling in Iowa. It’s noteworthy that a reputable pollster also published a tied poll in Virginia tonight as well. It seems like the combo of Trump and a mid race swap to Kamala is disrupting public polling results. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273570) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 9:22 PM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' Nah Trump is savvy enough not to call attention to a poll and give libs the "he's scared!" ammunition. There's been an explosion of propaganda the past couple days, and I don't think an Iowa pollster (with admittedly good track record) is out of the question of being paid or influenced. Call it cope if you want, but I don't know what you want me to believe when these supposedly objective polls were way off for Trump for two elections and no convincing explanation as to why (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273680) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 9:24 PM Author: Epistemic Humility (some random shit your brain made up based entirely on emotion) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273689) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 9:34 PM Author: Blackpill Bob You seem nervous (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273735) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 9:25 PM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. Attacking polls is one of the dumbest things a campaign can do. But if Harris has any internals showing a 3-4 point lead for Trump this would be a good time to let them leak. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273697) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 9:23 PM Author: askav (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273682) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 9:15 PM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' Polls are almost 100% fraudlies. They have been way off, on average the last two years. I assume they were more accurate before that, so they blame their error on Trump being hard to poll somehow. Could it be that, the only candidate that goes through the types of attacks, hoaxes, lies, propaganda that Trump has, could also be a victim of unusual propaganda campaigns by pollsters?
Don't get me wrong, I don't think there's any chance of Trump losing Iowa, but it's clear that this ONE POLL in Iowa, with an admittedly good track record, has given libs nationwide massive hopium. Is it to energize nationwide for popular vote? Influence neighboring states?
And inb4 "cope," yesterday we say supposedly well-respected journalists throw away any shred of credibility throwing around "firing squad" and "execution," which incompetence simply cannot explain. There is clearly a concerted propaganda campaign on par with Russiagate and Biden laptop. Win or lose, this is election interference |
|
Date: November 7th, 2024 6:55 PM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48307386) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 9:23 PM Author: askav I am not concerned. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273686) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 10:12 PM Author: Allan Lichtman's ridiculous hair system those poll results are kinda crazy because that would mean she's way off this time.
i just don't see how that's possible. kamala is a black woman, wasn't picked by voters, is stupid and lib. how could she be ahead like that in iowa? if that is accurate, trump is going to be slaughtered next week. |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 10:20 PM Author: Donald MASE Trump Same poll said Biden and Trump was tied in Iowa last cycle https://x.com/cernovich/status/1852888145999904867 |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 10:39 PM Author: Epistemic Humility YOU GODDAMNED MORON. ARE YOU EVEN READING THE THREADS YOUR COMMENTING IN?
He's cherry picking the September poll when he knows damn well the final poll, from 2020 i.e., the apples to apples comparison, was Trump +7.
|
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 10:40 PM Author: Donald MASE Trump Oh yesssss, the final poll is different for reasons She conducts every poll the same you FAGGOT. Just because her final polls have been historically accurate doesn’t mean she changes her methodology. Goddamn you are dumb |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 8:18 AM Author: Epistemic Humility Do you even know what a poll is? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48275172) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 10:25 PM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' The results were leaked yesterday to billionaire Democrat governor of Illinois JB Pritzker. I'm not saying there's definitely shenanigans, but any pollster with a really good track record is in line for a payday, and if they're paying good money, they probably don't want the shift to be a few points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273957) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2024 10:28 PM Author: ..,,....,,.,..,,..,,...,...,,....,..., I think it's just flat out wrong and possible propaganda (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48273969) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 8:23 AM Author: Allan Lichtman's ridiculous hair system sounds like one of those two. there is no way that iowa is that close.
the lib theory i've read on twitter is that this is because women are mad about roe being overturned. lmao. |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 8:28 AM Author: Get Thee to the TRUMPery So registrations and EV favor Trump heavily but somehow Harris is ahead?
https://x.com/mboyle1/status/1852857600506786292 |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 12:55 PM Author: Epistemic Humility It’s a big hairy, ballsy call, no doubt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48276106) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 12:58 PM Author: """'""""'' Hillary was ahead in the FL 2016 early vote by historic margins... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48276118) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 1:09 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) 1 - This is the worst news TRUMP has gotten since the NY convictions. Maybe since Jan. 6.
2 - It Ann Selzer pulls this one off, bitch is going to be elevated to oracle status in 2028. People will value her polls more than the rest of the industry combined, including nate silver/rcp/538. |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 1:23 PM Author: AutoAdmit Historian I am worried. Every shitliby acquaintance I know is low-key energized even if they're not proudly wearing KAMALA merch. Witnessing fence-sitting low-info 30yo white guys who should be voting Trump, or otherwise staying home--are instead being dragged by their fiances to vote kamala. Not good bros. I have a bad feeling about this.
The MAGA MSG rally seems ruinous in retrospect--I think anyone voting Trump was already energized, and the rally clips only inspired more faggots to vote Kamala who would have stayed home. |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 5:24 PM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) I kind of agree. Dems are super-pessimistic/scared this year, which is (1) usually *caused by* losing, but here is just caused by the scars of 2016 and biden 2024; and (2) often said to *cause* lower turnout, but it actually isn't a big deal (and may be helpful) when your side is the high-propensity-voter side. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48277015) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 1:31 PM Author: gedood persoon For some reason she won't release the crosstabs 🤔🤔🤔 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48276194) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 2:32 PM Author: Epistemic Humility Has she ever done that? Is it her normal practice to release anything more than top line pre-election? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48276376) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 9:30 PM Author: Epistemic Humility Odd, since she has and they're being widely discussed. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48277967) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 11:01 PM Author: peeface no, not the full tabs.
and im sure you've seen the helperin episode from today when he presented her own numbers to her and she responded like John Fetterman sitting the AP calculus exam?
|
|
Date: November 3rd, 2024 9:52 PM Author: the place where there is no darkness didn't trump win every single bellwether county (?) in 2020?
who cares |
|
Date: November 7th, 2024 6:23 PM Author: joyous rallies (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48307279) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2024 6:25 PM Author: .;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;, Is op UJTP? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48307283) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2024 6:29 PM Author: lsd I'm still shook tbh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48307301) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2024 7:07 PM Author: Bronus Swagner A House committee needs to subpoena her bank records (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48307450) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2024 8:03 PM Author: peeface when will the shaking stop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5623382&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910",#48307880) |