The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 12/10/15 |
| red tattoo | 12/12/15 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 01/02/17 |
| Excitant bull headed library | 01/06/16 |
| Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin | 01/06/16 |
| Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin | 06/05/16 |
| Cocky new version field | 03/26/16 |
| Disgusting stag film | 01/02/17 |
| At-the-ready Bronze Ape | 10/25/18 |
| Sepia preventive strike | 12/10/15 |
| Idiotic laughsome casino crotch | 12/10/15 |
| Purple multi-colored bawdyhouse | 12/10/15 |
| Sooty Infuriating Forum | 12/10/15 |
| insecure site striped hyena | 12/15/15 |
| Galvanic peach crackhouse | 12/10/15 |
| plum fragrant university | 12/10/15 |
| Electric center | 12/10/15 |
| mind-boggling cruise ship fat ankles | 12/11/15 |
| Comical Theater | 12/12/15 |
| burgundy out-of-control business firm | 12/16/15 |
| Maroon Drunken Dog Poop | 01/04/16 |
| razzmatazz temple elastic band | 11/09/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 12/11/15 |
| fantasy-prone pit | 12/11/15 |
| Mustard Mexican | 12/11/15 |
| mind-boggling cruise ship fat ankles | 12/11/15 |
| shimmering electric furnace theater stage | 12/12/15 |
| saffron sanctuary scourge upon the earth | 01/25/16 |
| Gold theatre | 11/10/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 12/12/15 |
| Umber Beady-eyed Base Police Squad | 12/12/15 |
| Titillating Geriatric Jewess | 12/12/15 |
| Well-lubricated church | 12/12/15 |
| Razzle-dazzle topaz gaping | 12/15/15 |
| Ruby Autistic Locale Sex Offender | 12/21/15 |
| Dun corn cake | 12/12/15 |
| Spectacular Immigrant | 12/12/15 |
| Massive wild private investor nowag | 12/12/15 |
| impressive digit ratio | 12/12/15 |
| Fishy clown | 12/12/15 |
| Free-loading disturbing puppy faggot firefighter | 12/12/15 |
| plum fragrant university | 12/15/15 |
| plum fragrant university | 12/16/15 |
| charismatic magenta potus | 12/15/15 |
| internet-worthy diverse range sound barrier | 12/15/15 |
| Cracking Box Office Laser Beams | 12/15/15 |
| Orange Elite People Who Are Hurt | 12/15/15 |
| Thirsty Bat Shit Crazy Plaza Mad-dog Skullcap | 12/15/15 |
| adventurous henna nursing home keepsake machete | 12/15/15 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 12/15/15 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 12/15/15 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 12/15/15 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 12/15/15 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 12/15/15 |
| Big bbw | 01/05/16 |
| saffron sanctuary scourge upon the earth | 01/25/16 |
| hairraiser macaca | 12/17/16 |
| Soul-stirring bespoke antidepressant drug wrinkle | 05/18/16 |
| Concupiscible impertinent ticket booth sandwich | 08/12/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 11/09/16 |
| apoplectic dilemma | 11/09/16 |
| racy place of business useless brakes | 11/09/16 |
| dashing costumed international law enforcement agency | 10/22/20 |
| azure trust fund | 12/15/15 |
| buck-toothed newt jap | 12/16/15 |
| Thriller Queen Of The Night | 12/16/15 |
| Fuchsia talented deer antler | 12/16/15 |
| low-t water buffalo | 12/16/15 |
| low-t water buffalo | 12/17/15 |
| rambunctious cream associate school | 12/18/15 |
| Excitant bull headed library | 01/06/16 |
| Odious den | 12/18/15 |
| low-t water buffalo | 12/21/15 |
| low-t water buffalo | 12/21/15 |
| Ruby Autistic Locale Sex Offender | 12/21/15 |
| low-t water buffalo | 12/30/15 |
| low-t water buffalo | 12/30/15 |
| low-t water buffalo | 01/04/16 |
| Maroon Drunken Dog Poop | 01/04/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 01/05/16 |
| saffron sanctuary scourge upon the earth | 01/25/16 |
| rambunctious cream associate school | 01/05/16 |
| Slap-happy tank | 01/05/16 |
| Motley Effete Trailer Park | 01/05/16 |
| Trip ruddy hunting ground | 01/05/16 |
| Misanthropic chad | 01/05/16 |
| Trip ruddy hunting ground | 01/05/16 |
| Excitant bull headed library | 01/06/16 |
| Trip ruddy hunting ground | 01/06/16 |
| Misanthropic chad | 01/05/16 |
| Concupiscible impertinent ticket booth sandwich | 01/06/16 |
| Ruby Autistic Locale Sex Offender | 01/07/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 01/08/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 01/08/16 |
| Ruby Autistic Locale Sex Offender | 01/08/16 |
| rambunctious cream associate school | 01/09/16 |
| Ruby Autistic Locale Sex Offender | 01/10/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 01/18/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 01/19/16 |
| rambunctious cream associate school | 01/21/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 01/25/16 |
| Submissive weed whacker | 01/25/16 |
| saffron sanctuary scourge upon the earth | 01/25/16 |
| Submissive weed whacker | 02/09/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 09/06/16 |
| Excitant bull headed library | 11/05/18 |
| narrow-minded bat-shit-crazy cuckoldry piazza | 01/29/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 02/01/16 |
| Milky Set | 02/01/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 02/01/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 02/07/16 |
| Slap-happy tank | 02/09/16 |
| contagious pale cuck | 02/09/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 02/20/16 |
| Arousing buff state candlestick maker | 02/20/16 |
| Soul-stirring bespoke antidepressant drug wrinkle | 02/24/16 |
| dull patrolman stead | 02/24/16 |
| beta aphrodisiac national security agency house | 02/27/16 |
| charismatic magenta potus | 03/09/16 |
| navy marvelous milk tanning salon | 03/15/16 |
| Purple multi-colored bawdyhouse | 03/15/16 |
| internet-worthy diverse range sound barrier | 03/16/16 |
| khaki boyish marketing idea | 02/24/16 |
| yapping vermilion heaven | 02/24/16 |
| internet-worthy diverse range sound barrier | 07/21/16 |
| bearded floppy personal credit line | 02/24/16 |
| Purple multi-colored bawdyhouse | 02/27/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/02/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/04/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/09/16 |
| Slap-happy tank | 03/09/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/15/16 |
| Soul-stirring bespoke antidepressant drug wrinkle | 03/15/16 |
| Blue Lodge | 03/15/16 |
| Chrome stirring hairy legs location | 03/15/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/16/16 |
| plum fragrant university | 03/16/16 |
| apoplectic dilemma | 03/23/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/23/16 |
| Massive wild private investor nowag | 03/26/16 |
| Pontificating mother mental disorder | 03/26/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/26/16 |
| Big bbw | 03/28/16 |
| apoplectic dilemma | 03/28/16 |
| Idiotic laughsome casino crotch | 03/28/16 |
| Concupiscible impertinent ticket booth sandwich | 08/12/16 |
| Excitant bull headed library | 11/05/18 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/28/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/29/16 |
| tripping blood rage | 03/29/16 |
| tripping blood rage | 03/29/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/29/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/29/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 04/01/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 04/04/16 |
| tripping blood rage | 04/15/16 |
| vigorous quadroon | 04/15/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 04/19/16 |
| 180 selfie locus | 04/20/16 |
| curious philosopher-king goyim | 04/20/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 04/24/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 04/25/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 04/26/16 |
| lascivious abode | 04/26/16 |
| magical stage | 04/30/16 |
| flatulent canary affirmative action | 05/01/16 |
| flatulent canary affirmative action | 11/07/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 05/02/16 |
| apoplectic dilemma | 05/02/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 05/03/16 |
| Zombie-like Fanboi Area | 05/03/16 |
| aquamarine becky | 05/03/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 05/04/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 05/04/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 05/05/16 |
| impressive digit ratio | 05/05/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 05/05/16 |
| yapping vermilion heaven | 05/05/16 |
| Umber Beady-eyed Base Police Squad | 05/18/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 05/18/16 |
| Soul-stirring bespoke antidepressant drug wrinkle | 05/18/16 |
| Umber Beady-eyed Base Police Squad | 05/18/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 05/29/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 06/20/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 06/29/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 07/14/16 |
| Passionate indirect expression mediation | 07/15/16 |
| Concupiscible impertinent ticket booth sandwich | 07/15/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 07/17/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 07/17/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 07/21/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 07/22/16 |
| chest-beating sickened telephone generalized bond | 07/22/16 |
| sticky voyeur | 07/23/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 07/24/16 |
| Mint parlour juggernaut | 07/25/16 |
| tripping blood rage | 07/25/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 07/27/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 08/05/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 08/09/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 08/12/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 08/12/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 08/12/16 |
| Flesh Bonkers Rehab | 08/12/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 08/30/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 08/30/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 09/06/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 09/13/16 |
| tripping blood rage | 09/14/16 |
| Dun corn cake | 09/14/16 |
| cerebral regret senate | 09/15/16 |
| Very Tactful Mood | 09/15/16 |
| Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin | 09/15/16 |
| irradiated coiffed main people | 09/15/16 |
| stimulating parlor boistinker | 09/15/16 |
| mewling hell | 09/19/16 |
| mewling hell | 09/19/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 09/27/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 09/24/16 |
| low-t water buffalo | 09/27/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 09/27/16 |
| plum fragrant university | 09/27/16 |
| Pink office | 10/08/16 |
| glittery metal market | 07/29/24 |
| tripping blood rage | 09/28/16 |
| Dun corn cake | 09/28/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 09/28/16 |
| curious philosopher-king goyim | 09/28/16 |
| vigorous quadroon | 09/28/16 |
| wonderful trump supporter | 10/08/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 10/09/16 |
| Underhanded big-titted reading party | 10/09/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 10/09/16 |
| Orchid vivacious doctorate | 10/09/16 |
| tripping blood rage | 10/10/16 |
| Mint parlour juggernaut | 10/30/16 |
| Concupiscible impertinent ticket booth sandwich | 11/01/16 |
| irradiated coiffed main people | 11/01/16 |
| pea-brained indian lodge | 11/02/16 |
| Orange Elite People Who Are Hurt | 11/02/16 |
| tripping blood rage | 11/07/16 |
| Swashbuckling Salmon Property | 11/08/16 |
| tripping blood rage | 11/08/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 11/08/16 |
| tripping blood rage | 11/08/16 |
| Hot Useless Brunch Headpube | 11/08/16 |
| Rebellious brass hospital sneaky criminal | 11/08/16 |
| Milky Set | 11/08/16 |
| mewling hell | 11/08/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 11/08/16 |
| exhilarant smoky national sweet tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| cerebral regret senate | 11/09/16 |
| Cruel-hearted cerise orchestra pit community account | 11/09/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 11/09/16 |
| irradiated coiffed main people | 11/09/16 |
| exhilarant smoky national sweet tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| Mint parlour juggernaut | 11/09/16 |
| impressive digit ratio | 11/09/16 |
| Lime Appetizing Athletic Conference Cumskin | 12/03/16 |
| Gold theatre | 12/07/16 |
| hairraiser macaca | 12/17/16 |
| Sable hall turdskin | 10/11/24 |
| heady cobalt shrine | 11/09/16 |
| Razzle toaster school cafeteria | 11/09/16 |
| Vibrant sexy volcanic crater | 11/09/16 |
| medicated flushed point | 11/09/16 |
| Lime Appetizing Athletic Conference Cumskin | 11/09/16 |
| Concupiscible impertinent ticket booth sandwich | 11/09/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 11/09/16 |
| Umber Beady-eyed Base Police Squad | 11/09/16 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 11/09/16 |
| seedy naked institution | 11/09/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 11/09/16 |
| bright kitchen | 11/09/16 |
| gay chapel partner | 11/09/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 11/09/16 |
| Sooty Infuriating Forum | 11/09/16 |
| Odious den | 11/10/16 |
| Submissive weed whacker | 11/10/16 |
| Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin | 11/10/16 |
| ebony space | 11/10/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 11/10/16 |
| tripping blood rage | 11/10/16 |
| Arousing buff state candlestick maker | 11/10/16 |
| mewling hell | 11/14/16 |
| Nighttime garrison messiness | 11/14/16 |
| startling station haunted graveyard | 12/04/16 |
| hairraiser macaca | 12/17/16 |
| Sable hall turdskin | 10/11/24 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 11/25/16 |
| dark exciting legend roast beef | 12/03/16 |
| Orchid vivacious doctorate | 12/04/16 |
| Bateful fear-inspiring corner giraffe | 12/07/16 |
| Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin | 12/07/16 |
| dark exciting legend roast beef | 12/07/16 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 01/02/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 01/02/17 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 01/02/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 01/02/17 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 03/03/20 |
| Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin | 01/02/17 |
| apoplectic dilemma | 01/16/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 01/20/17 |
| low-t water buffalo | 01/20/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 01/23/17 |
| wonderful trump supporter | 01/23/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 01/23/17 |
| Aromatic Ocher Double Fault Whorehouse | 01/23/17 |
| wonderful trump supporter | 01/23/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 01/23/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 01/25/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 01/26/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 02/06/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 02/13/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 02/27/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 05/03/17 |
| low-t water buffalo | 05/03/17 |
| Obsidian provocative resort | 09/21/17 |
| Purple multi-colored bawdyhouse | 01/23/17 |
| irradiated coiffed main people | 02/27/17 |
| Excitant bull headed library | 03/22/17 |
| low-t water buffalo | 04/17/17 |
| low-t water buffalo | 05/08/17 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 06/20/17 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 08/10/17 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 10/15/17 |
| apoplectic dilemma | 10/15/17 |
| erotic dysfunction | 10/15/17 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 11/06/17 |
| genital piercing knife | 11/06/17 |
| judgmental flickering home | 11/08/17 |
| know-it-all sinister gas station | 11/08/17 |
| twisted principal's office psychic | 11/13/17 |
| apoplectic dilemma | 12/18/17 |
| Supple Gaped Skinny Woman | 12/18/17 |
| apoplectic dilemma | 12/18/17 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 01/30/18 |
| Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin | 06/01/18 |
| low-t water buffalo | 07/18/18 |
| apoplectic dilemma | 07/19/18 |
| stimulating parlor boistinker | 09/20/18 |
| low-t water buffalo | 09/25/18 |
| Idiotic laughsome casino crotch | 10/06/18 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 10/06/18 |
| Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin | 10/25/18 |
| Very Tactful Mood | 10/25/18 |
| saffron sanctuary scourge upon the earth | 11/05/18 |
| Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin | 11/05/18 |
| Excitant bull headed library | 11/05/18 |
| Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin | 11/05/18 |
| low-t water buffalo | 01/08/19 |
| zippy coffee pot | 02/23/19 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 03/13/19 |
| saffron sanctuary scourge upon the earth | 06/24/19 |
| Glassy meetinghouse | 06/24/19 |
| low-t water buffalo | 11/18/19 |
| irradiated coiffed main people | 02/12/20 |
| low-t water buffalo | 02/12/20 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 03/24/20 |
| Wine Love Of Her Life Menage | 03/24/20 |
| Passionate indirect expression mediation | 04/04/20 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 04/26/20 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 05/13/20 |
| Passionate indirect expression mediation | 06/05/20 |
| walnut feces twinkling uncleanness | 06/05/20 |
| Passionate indirect expression mediation | 09/09/20 |
| irradiated coiffed main people | 09/09/20 |
| Sepia preventive strike | 09/09/20 |
| vengeful crimson incel brethren | 09/12/20 |
| Awkward stage | 09/24/20 |
| Glassy meetinghouse | 10/09/20 |
| apoplectic dilemma | 10/10/20 |
| hideous adulterous dopamine address | 10/22/20 |
| Lime Appetizing Athletic Conference Cumskin | 10/22/20 |
| dashing costumed international law enforcement agency | 10/22/20 |
| dashing costumed international law enforcement agency | 10/22/20 |
| Hyperventilating lay | 03/23/22 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 10/27/20 |
| Excitant bull headed library | 10/27/20 |
| Glassy meetinghouse | 10/30/20 |
| apoplectic dilemma | 11/03/20 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/22/22 |
| goal in life | 03/23/22 |
| native | 03/23/22 |
| Domesticated pearly church building famous landscape painting | 03/23/22 |
| low-t water buffalo | 07/25/22 |
| Sepia preventive strike | 07/25/22 |
| low-t water buffalo | 10/23/22 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 11/16/22 |
| Ultramarine abusive alpha | 04/25/23 |
| Umber Beady-eyed Base Police Squad | 04/25/23 |
| Awkward stage | 04/29/23 |
| glittery metal market | 05/28/23 |
| low-t water buffalo | 02/22/24 |
| Awkward stage | 02/23/24 |
| low-t water buffalo | 05/23/24 |
| low-t water buffalo | 08/26/24 |
| Awkward stage | 09/13/24 |
| Sepia preventive strike | 09/13/24 |
| Awkward stage | 10/18/24 |
| Sable hall turdskin | 10/11/24 |
| low-t water buffalo | 11/06/24 |
| impressive digit ratio | 03/04/25 |
| impressive digit ratio | 03/04/25 |
| stimulating parlor boistinker | 03/04/25 |
| Sable hall turdskin | 03/04/25 |
| doobsian public bath | 03/04/25 |
| Crawly legal warrant codepig | 03/05/25 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/07/25 |
| violet ratface prole | 03/07/25 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/08/25 |
| Spot | 03/08/25 |
| low-t water buffalo | 03/08/25 |
| Purple multi-colored bawdyhouse | 02/18/26 |
| low-t water buffalo | 05/15/26 |
| rose circlehead kitty | 05/17/26 |
| Crawly legal warrant codepig | 08/11/26 |
| chopped manlet | 09/22/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: red tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Excitant bull headed library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Cocky new version field 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Disgusting stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: At-the-ready Bronze Ape "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Sepia preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Idiotic laughsome casino crotch 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Purple multi-colored bawdyhouse 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Sooty Infuriating Forum Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: insecure site striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Galvanic peach crackhouse FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: plum fragrant university Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Electric center Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: mind-boggling cruise ship fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Comical Theater Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: burgundy out-of-control business firm Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Maroon Drunken Dog Poop Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: razzmatazz temple elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: fantasy-prone pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Mustard Mexican 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: mind-boggling cruise ship fat ankles November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: shimmering electric furnace theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: saffron sanctuary scourge upon the earth Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Gold theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Umber Beady-eyed Base Police Squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Titillating Geriatric Jewess lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Well-lubricated church March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle topaz gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Ruby Autistic Locale Sex Offender 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Dun corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Spectacular Immigrant lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Massive wild private investor nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: impressive digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Fishy clown Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Free-loading disturbing puppy faggot firefighter Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: plum fragrant university OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: plum fragrant university And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: charismatic magenta potus 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: internet-worthy diverse range sound barrier fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Cracking Box Office Laser Beams I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Orange Elite People Who Are Hurt 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Thirsty Bat Shit Crazy Plaza Mad-dog Skullcap February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: adventurous henna nursing home keepsake machete You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Big bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: saffron sanctuary scourge upon the earth Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: hairraiser macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Soul-stirring bespoke antidepressant drug wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Concupiscible impertinent ticket booth sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: apoplectic dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: racy place of business useless brakes Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: dashing costumed international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: azure trust fund This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: buck-toothed newt jap 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Thriller Queen Of The Night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Fuchsia talented deer antler Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: low-t water buffalo Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: low-t water buffalo Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: rambunctious cream associate school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Excitant bull headed library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Odious den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: low-t water buffalo Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: low-t water buffalo "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Ruby Autistic Locale Sex Offender 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: low-t water buffalo "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: low-t water buffalo One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: low-t water buffalo This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Maroon Drunken Dog Poop flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: saffron sanctuary scourge upon the earth Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: rambunctious cream associate school From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Slap-happy tank 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Motley Effete Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Trip ruddy hunting ground An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Misanthropic chad 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Trip ruddy hunting ground I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Excitant bull headed library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Trip ruddy hunting ground Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Misanthropic chad No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Concupiscible impertinent ticket booth sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Ruby Autistic Locale Sex Offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: low-t water buffalo “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Ruby Autistic Locale Sex Offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: rambunctious cream associate school http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Ruby Autistic Locale Sex Offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: low-t water buffalo http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: low-t water buffalo Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: rambunctious cream associate school looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Submissive weed whacker 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29677863) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: saffron sanctuary scourge upon the earth You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29677913) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29727124) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: Milky Set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29727197) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29732588) |
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Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29771453) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29877406) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Arousing buff state candlestick maker OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29877434) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: internet-worthy diverse range sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30070592) |
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this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: yapping vermilion heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29904083) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: internet-worthy diverse range sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30987707) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: bearded floppy personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29904074) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Purple multi-colored bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29931637) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29960115) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Slap-happy tank yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Soul-stirring bespoke antidepressant drug wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30065970) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Blue Lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30066291) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: low-t water buffalo It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: plum fragrant university March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: apoplectic dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Massive wild private investor nowag http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: Pontificating mother mental disorder Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30140513) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Big bbw jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: apoplectic dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Idiotic laughsome casino crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Concupiscible impertinent ticket booth sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Excitant bull headed library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: low-t water buffalo "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: low-t water buffalo "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: tripping blood rage lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: tripping blood rage "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: low-t water buffalo http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: low-t water buffalo http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: low-t water buffalo "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: tripping blood rage interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: vigorous quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: 180 selfie locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: curious philosopher-king goyim I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: lascivious abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: magical stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: flatulent canary affirmative action Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: flatulent canary affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: apoplectic dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: low-t water buffalo The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Zombie-like Fanboi Area holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: aquamarine becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: low-t water buffalo Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: impressive digit ratio Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: yapping vermilion heaven Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Umber Beady-eyed Base Police Squad This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Soul-stirring bespoke antidepressant drug wrinkle In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Umber Beady-eyed Base Police Squad cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: low-t water buffalo Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: low-t water buffalo http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Passionate indirect expression mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Concupiscible impertinent ticket booth sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: low-t water buffalo http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: chest-beating sickened telephone generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: sticky voyeur Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Mint parlour juggernaut Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: tripping blood rage amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: low-t water buffalo http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Flesh Bonkers Rehab LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: low-t water buffalo Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: tripping blood rage ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Dun corn cake Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: cerebral regret senate September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Very Tactful Mood September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: irradiated coiffed main people XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: stimulating parlor boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: mewling hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: mewling hell The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: low-t water buffalo http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: plum fragrant university This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Pink office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: glittery metal market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: tripping blood rage http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Dun corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: curious philosopher-king goyim This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: vigorous quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: wonderful trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Underhanded big-titted reading party Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Orchid vivacious doctorate half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: tripping blood rage nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Mint parlour juggernaut close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Concupiscible impertinent ticket booth sandwich Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: irradiated coiffed main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: pea-brained indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Orange Elite People Who Are Hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: tripping blood rage prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Swashbuckling Salmon Property You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: tripping blood rage true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: tripping blood rage ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Hot Useless Brunch Headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Rebellious brass hospital sneaky criminal Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Milky Set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: mewling hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: exhilarant smoky national sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: cerebral regret senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Cruel-hearted cerise orchestra pit community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: irradiated coiffed main people GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: exhilarant smoky national sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Mint parlour juggernaut it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: impressive digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Lime Appetizing Athletic Conference Cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Gold theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: hairraiser macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Sable hall turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: heady cobalt shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Razzle toaster school cafeteria Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Vibrant sexy volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: medicated flushed point 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Lime Appetizing Athletic Conference Cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Concupiscible impertinent ticket booth sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Umber Beady-eyed Base Police Squad this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: seedy naked institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: bright kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: gay chapel partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Sooty Infuriating Forum you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Odious den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Submissive weed whacker Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: ebony space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: tripping blood rage ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Arousing buff state candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: mewling hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Nighttime garrison messiness They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: startling station haunted graveyard Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: hairraiser macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Sable hall turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: dark exciting legend roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Orchid vivacious doctorate GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Bateful fear-inspiring corner giraffe https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: dark exciting legend roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Obsidian provocative resort October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Obsidian provocative resort ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: apoplectic dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Obsidian provocative resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Obsidian provocative resort http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: wonderful trump supporter TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Obsidian provocative resort It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Aromatic Ocher Double Fault Whorehouse I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: wonderful trump supporter it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Obsidian provocative resort The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Obsidian provocative resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Obsidian provocative resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Obsidian provocative resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Obsidian provocative resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Obsidian provocative resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Obsidian provocative resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Obsidian provocative resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Purple multi-colored bawdyhouse this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: irradiated coiffed main people One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Excitant bull headed library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: low-t water buffalo https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: apoplectic dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: erotic dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: genital piercing knife credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: judgmental flickering home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: know-it-all sinister gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: twisted principal's office psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: apoplectic dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Supple Gaped Skinny Woman Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: apoplectic dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: low-t water buffalo https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: apoplectic dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: stimulating parlor boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: low-t water buffalo The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Idiotic laughsome casino crotch It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Very Tactful Mood Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: saffron sanctuary scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Excitant bull headed library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Histrionic Step-uncle's House Foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: low-t water buffalo What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: zippy coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: saffron sanctuary scourge upon the earth There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Glassy meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: irradiated coiffed main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Wine Love Of Her Life Menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Passionate indirect expression mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Passionate indirect expression mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: walnut feces twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Passionate indirect expression mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: irradiated coiffed main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Sepia preventive strike Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: vengeful crimson incel brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Awkward stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Glassy meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: apoplectic dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: hideous adulterous dopamine address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Lime Appetizing Athletic Conference Cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: dashing costumed international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: dashing costumed international law enforcement agency https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Hyperventilating lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Excitant bull headed library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Glassy meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: apoplectic dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Domesticated pearly church building famous landscape painting 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Sepia preventive strike A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Ultramarine abusive alpha https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Umber Beady-eyed Base Police Squad why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Awkward stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: glittery metal market FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Awkward stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: low-t water buffalo https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Awkward stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Sepia preventive strike One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Awkward stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Sable hall turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: impressive digit ratio 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: impressive digit ratio https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: stimulating parlor boistinker Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Sable hall turdskin The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: doobsian public bath He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Crawly legal warrant codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: low-t water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: violet ratface prole 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: low-t water buffalo "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Spot Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: low-t water buffalo Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Purple multi-colored bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: low-t water buffalo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: rose circlehead kitty i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: Crawly legal warrant codepig Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#50060136) |
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Date: September 22nd, 2026 2:45 PM Author: chopped manlet (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310910#50149615) |