You are no borders tp, MASE.
| Candy Ride | 09/30/24 | | him | 09/30/24 | | Candy Ride | 09/30/24 | | ti | 09/30/24 | | bip | 09/30/24 | | MASE | 09/30/24 | | Candy Ride | 09/30/24 | | MASE | 09/30/24 | | heg | 09/30/24 | | """'""""'' | 09/30/24 | | Charles Tyrwhitt Dad | 09/30/24 | | MASE | 09/30/24 | | bip | 09/30/24 | | MASE | 09/30/24 | | bip | 09/30/24 | | """'""""'' | 09/30/24 | | MASE | 09/30/24 | | gtt | 09/30/24 | | bip | 09/30/24 |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 9:13 PM Author: bip
hatp here I'm between MASE point of view and Charles Tyrwhitt Dad whom I believe has given excellent analysis.
Part of me leans towards MASE just because the swing state polling is pretty good for Trump, the best he's had in 3 elections.
The counterargument is a demographic one. There are perhaps now a silent majority of blasé democrats who don't even have to get off the coach to fill out a ballot.
It's too close to call and we won't have any idea until election night (and beyond). 60/40 Trump because I like his fundamentals but outside chance that Dem GOTV effort is successful and we loses due to overall demographics.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603985&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915",#48148083) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 9:18 PM Author: MASE
>The counterargument is a demographic one. There are perhaps now a silent majority of blasé democrats who don't even have to get off the coach to fill out a ballot.
The problem with this argument is that they aren't doing it. Mail in ballot requests are down 80% in some states. Meanwhile the GOP's GOTV effort is like 10x more powerful than it was last election and is based upon getting every low propensity white voter to vote. It's proving massively effective. Look at Virginia's early voting numbers to see what I mean.
The fact is that Cackles enthusiasm is manufactured and Dems are not voting for her. The only cope shitlibs have for this is that "they're going to vote huge on election day". Which lol @ Dems now being the big election day voters. But if that's the case, why did PA Dem registrations drop 300k from last cycle?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603985&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915",#48148096) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 9:15 PM Author: """'""""''
Date: September 30th, 2024 9:10 PM
Author: MASE
I could relitigate it (I have posted many replies the past few weeks with reasons to be confident), but IMO it comes down to the fact that he's improved massively with every group he could improve with and he retains the support he's always had. All available evidence, be it polling, registrations, early voting numbers etc. bear this out.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603985&forum_id=2#48148079)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603985&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915",#48148089) |
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