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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 12/10/15 |
| sexy amber casino | 12/12/15 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 01/02/17 |
| House-broken sex offender | 01/06/16 |
| Walnut heady theater | 01/06/16 |
| Walnut heady theater | 06/05/16 |
| Bateful codepig athletic conference | 03/26/16 |
| Federal Legend Shrine | 01/02/17 |
| white locale | 10/25/18 |
| crusty sweet tailpipe state | 12/10/15 |
| Unholy juggernaut office | 12/10/15 |
| Smoky spot | 12/10/15 |
| Pungent tantric area organic girlfriend | 12/10/15 |
| mind-boggling embarrassed to the bone crackhouse | 12/15/15 |
| multi-colored center | 12/10/15 |
| shimmering aromatic weed whacker hairy legs | 12/10/15 |
| Godawful Mint Piazza Idea He Suggested | 12/10/15 |
| autistic locus foreskin | 12/11/15 |
| violent kink-friendly electric furnace tank | 12/12/15 |
| Nofapping laughsome church | 12/16/15 |
| thriller meetinghouse preventive strike | 01/04/16 |
| Titillating Public Bath | 11/09/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 12/11/15 |
| Razzmatazz haunted graveyard | 12/11/15 |
| saffron 180 range | 12/11/15 |
| autistic locus foreskin | 12/11/15 |
| transparent nibblets | 12/12/15 |
| Crimson Reading Party | 01/25/16 |
| arousing sanctuary | 11/10/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 12/12/15 |
| Provocative judgmental jew brunch | 12/12/15 |
| Frum splenetic field | 12/12/15 |
| learning disabled hospital | 12/12/15 |
| translucent business firm kitty cat | 12/15/15 |
| Red exciting hall | 12/21/15 |
| Stimulating clear tanning salon | 12/12/15 |
| talented insecure partner | 12/12/15 |
| Avocado diverse newt | 12/12/15 |
| dead death wish dingle berry | 12/12/15 |
| Contagious Rigpig National | 12/12/15 |
| Appetizing brass home | 12/12/15 |
| shimmering aromatic weed whacker hairy legs | 12/15/15 |
| shimmering aromatic weed whacker hairy legs | 12/16/15 |
| Floppy mustard orchestra pit | 12/15/15 |
| glittery menage mediation | 12/15/15 |
| mahogany stage | 12/15/15 |
| slap-happy nursing home | 12/15/15 |
| filthy volcanic crater property | 12/15/15 |
| vivacious hateful stock car box office | 12/15/15 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 12/15/15 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 12/15/15 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 12/15/15 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 12/15/15 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 12/15/15 |
| Trip Site Dog Poop | 01/05/16 |
| Crimson Reading Party | 01/25/16 |
| Cheese-eating effete idiot | 12/17/16 |
| Curious dilemma | 05/18/16 |
| Fighting useless brakes | 08/12/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life | 11/09/16 |
| Razzle lodge rigor | 11/09/16 |
| charismatic indecent lay faggot firefighter | 10/22/20 |
| Lascivious orange resort | 12/15/15 |
| ultramarine duck-like set | 12/16/15 |
| Scarlet Gaming Laptop School Cafeteria | 12/16/15 |
| self-centered free-loading fortuitous meteor | 12/16/15 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 12/16/15 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 12/17/15 |
| excitant startled pozpig coldplay fan | 12/18/15 |
| House-broken sex offender | 01/06/16 |
| bistre stain | 12/18/15 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 12/21/15 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 12/21/15 |
| Red exciting hall | 12/21/15 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 12/30/15 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 12/30/15 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 01/04/16 |
| thriller meetinghouse preventive strike | 01/04/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 01/05/16 |
| Crimson Reading Party | 01/25/16 |
| excitant startled pozpig coldplay fan | 01/05/16 |
| chartreuse temple | 01/05/16 |
| electric metal incel native | 01/05/16 |
| Galvanic peach sandwich messiness | 01/05/16 |
| rambunctious twinkling love of her life | 01/05/16 |
| Galvanic peach sandwich messiness | 01/05/16 |
| House-broken sex offender | 01/06/16 |
| Galvanic peach sandwich messiness | 01/06/16 |
| rambunctious twinkling love of her life | 01/05/16 |
| Fighting useless brakes | 01/06/16 |
| Red exciting hall | 01/07/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 01/08/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 01/08/16 |
| Red exciting hall | 01/08/16 |
| excitant startled pozpig coldplay fan | 01/09/16 |
| Red exciting hall | 01/10/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 01/18/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 01/19/16 |
| excitant startled pozpig coldplay fan | 01/21/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 01/25/16 |
| Coral library | 01/25/16 |
| Crimson Reading Party | 01/25/16 |
| Coral library | 02/09/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 09/06/16 |
| House-broken sex offender | 11/05/18 |
| beady-eyed internet-worthy base | 01/29/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 02/01/16 |
| Motley corner | 02/01/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 02/01/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 02/07/16 |
| chartreuse temple | 02/09/16 |
| Passionate garnet forum | 02/09/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 02/20/16 |
| Slate Supple Ticket Booth | 02/20/16 |
| Curious dilemma | 02/24/16 |
| Big cordovan house | 02/24/16 |
| Topaz hell | 02/27/16 |
| Floppy mustard orchestra pit | 03/09/16 |
| Chestnut dragon garrison | 03/15/16 |
| Smoky spot | 03/15/16 |
| glittery menage mediation | 03/16/16 |
| impressive wonderful gas station | 02/24/16 |
| henna potus institution | 02/24/16 |
| glittery menage mediation | 07/21/16 |
| cerebral chapel | 02/24/16 |
| Smoky spot | 02/27/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 03/02/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 03/04/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 03/09/16 |
| chartreuse temple | 03/09/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 03/15/16 |
| Curious dilemma | 03/15/16 |
| Swollen Azure Abode Karate | 03/15/16 |
| Disrespectful university | 03/15/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 03/16/16 |
| shimmering aromatic weed whacker hairy legs | 03/16/16 |
| Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life | 03/23/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 03/23/16 |
| Avocado diverse newt | 03/26/16 |
| Vibrant macaca | 03/26/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 03/26/16 |
| Trip Site Dog Poop | 03/28/16 |
| Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life | 03/28/16 |
| Unholy juggernaut office | 03/28/16 |
| Fighting useless brakes | 08/12/16 |
| House-broken sex offender | 11/05/18 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 03/28/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 03/29/16 |
| Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead | 03/29/16 |
| Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead | 03/29/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 03/29/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 03/29/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 04/01/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 04/04/16 |
| Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead | 04/15/16 |
| sinister harsh antidepressant drug marketing idea | 04/15/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 04/19/16 |
| vengeful keepsake machete theatre | 04/20/16 |
| amethyst aphrodisiac senate place of business | 04/20/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 04/24/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 04/25/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 04/26/16 |
| puce balding bawdyhouse | 04/26/16 |
| Grizzly Den | 04/30/16 |
| soul-stirring buff kitchen | 05/01/16 |
| soul-stirring buff kitchen | 11/07/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 05/02/16 |
| Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life | 05/02/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 05/03/16 |
| Sapphire blood rage | 05/03/16 |
| zippy stead | 05/03/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 05/04/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 05/04/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 05/05/16 |
| dead death wish dingle berry | 05/05/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 05/05/16 |
| henna potus institution | 05/05/16 |
| Provocative judgmental jew brunch | 05/18/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 05/18/16 |
| Curious dilemma | 05/18/16 |
| Provocative judgmental jew brunch | 05/18/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 05/29/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 06/20/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 06/29/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 07/14/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle step-uncle's house brethren | 07/15/16 |
| Fighting useless brakes | 07/15/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 07/17/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 07/17/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 07/21/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 07/22/16 |
| Adventurous chrome parlour | 07/22/16 |
| Marvelous insanely creepy therapy | 07/23/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 07/24/16 |
| histrionic space | 07/25/16 |
| Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead | 07/25/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 07/27/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 08/05/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 08/09/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 08/12/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 08/12/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 08/12/16 |
| Stirring point headpube | 08/12/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 08/30/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 08/30/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 09/06/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 09/13/16 |
| Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead | 09/14/16 |
| Stimulating clear tanning salon | 09/14/16 |
| snowy out-of-control corn cake | 09/15/16 |
| Lemon filthpig station | 09/15/16 |
| Walnut heady theater | 09/15/16 |
| exhilarant plaza | 09/15/16 |
| alcoholic indian lodge affirmative action | 09/15/16 |
| Lavender Swashbuckling Market Dysfunction | 09/19/16 |
| Lavender Swashbuckling Market Dysfunction | 09/19/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 09/27/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 09/24/16 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 09/27/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 09/27/16 |
| shimmering aromatic weed whacker hairy legs | 09/27/16 |
| Hairraiser theater stage | 10/08/16 |
| slimy awkward toaster | 07/29/24 |
| Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead | 09/28/16 |
| Stimulating clear tanning salon | 09/28/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 09/28/16 |
| amethyst aphrodisiac senate place of business | 09/28/16 |
| sinister harsh antidepressant drug marketing idea | 09/28/16 |
| Irate Well-lubricated Cruise Ship Deer Antler | 10/08/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 10/09/16 |
| Boyish twisted school | 10/09/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 10/09/16 |
| Maize Adulterous Stag Film | 10/09/16 |
| Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead | 10/10/16 |
| histrionic space | 10/30/16 |
| Fighting useless brakes | 11/01/16 |
| exhilarant plaza | 11/01/16 |
| Odious location mental disorder | 11/02/16 |
| slap-happy nursing home | 11/02/16 |
| Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead | 11/07/16 |
| pale stage | 11/08/16 |
| Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead | 11/08/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 11/08/16 |
| Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead | 11/08/16 |
| Dashing Sienna Heaven | 11/08/16 |
| cracking gay wizard | 11/08/16 |
| Motley corner | 11/08/16 |
| Lavender Swashbuckling Market Dysfunction | 11/08/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 11/08/16 |
| bespoke rehab | 11/09/16 |
| snowy out-of-control corn cake | 11/09/16 |
| Magenta whorehouse laser beams | 11/09/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| exhilarant plaza | 11/09/16 |
| bespoke rehab | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic space | 11/09/16 |
| dead death wish dingle berry | 11/09/16 |
| vigorous elite mother | 12/03/16 |
| arousing sanctuary | 12/07/16 |
| Cheese-eating effete idiot | 12/17/16 |
| aggressive massive knife | 10/11/24 |
| Primrose Bbw | 11/09/16 |
| blathering comical parlor | 11/09/16 |
| irradiated stubborn azn fanboi | 11/09/16 |
| khaki ratface | 11/09/16 |
| vigorous elite mother | 11/09/16 |
| Fighting useless brakes | 11/09/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| Provocative judgmental jew brunch | 11/09/16 |
| Flirting faggotry | 11/09/16 |
| greedy yapping pit | 11/09/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| Bisexual spectacular cuckold | 11/09/16 |
| fragrant main people | 11/09/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| Pungent tantric area organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| bistre stain | 11/10/16 |
| Coral library | 11/10/16 |
| Walnut heady theater | 11/10/16 |
| church building mood | 11/10/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 11/10/16 |
| Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead | 11/10/16 |
| Slate Supple Ticket Booth | 11/10/16 |
| Lavender Swashbuckling Market Dysfunction | 11/14/16 |
| Bronze voyeur | 11/14/16 |
| offensive canary hominid | 12/04/16 |
| Cheese-eating effete idiot | 12/17/16 |
| aggressive massive knife | 10/11/24 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 11/25/16 |
| At-the-ready | 12/03/16 |
| Maize Adulterous Stag Film | 12/04/16 |
| violet chad | 12/07/16 |
| Walnut heady theater | 12/07/16 |
| At-the-ready | 12/07/16 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 01/02/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 01/02/17 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 01/02/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 01/02/17 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 03/03/20 |
| Walnut heady theater | 01/02/17 |
| Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life | 01/16/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 01/20/17 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 01/20/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 01/23/17 |
| Irate Well-lubricated Cruise Ship Deer Antler | 01/23/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 01/23/17 |
| flesh giraffe | 01/23/17 |
| Irate Well-lubricated Cruise Ship Deer Antler | 01/23/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 01/23/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 01/25/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 01/26/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 02/06/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 02/13/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 02/27/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 05/03/17 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 05/03/17 |
| silver cuckoldry ceo | 09/21/17 |
| Smoky spot | 01/23/17 |
| exhilarant plaza | 02/27/17 |
| House-broken sex offender | 03/22/17 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 04/17/17 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 05/08/17 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 06/20/17 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 08/10/17 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 10/15/17 |
| Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life | 10/15/17 |
| Dark arrogant half-breed | 10/15/17 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 11/06/17 |
| Sepia Milk Mad Cow Disease | 11/06/17 |
| painfully honest | 11/08/17 |
| misanthropic philosopher-king | 11/08/17 |
| alcoholic pistol | 11/13/17 |
| Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life | 12/18/17 |
| Flirting faggotry | 12/18/17 |
| Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life | 12/18/17 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 01/30/18 |
| Walnut heady theater | 06/01/18 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 07/18/18 |
| Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life | 07/19/18 |
| alcoholic indian lodge affirmative action | 09/20/18 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 09/25/18 |
| Unholy juggernaut office | 10/06/18 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 10/06/18 |
| Walnut heady theater | 10/25/18 |
| Lemon filthpig station | 10/25/18 |
| Crimson Reading Party | 11/05/18 |
| Walnut heady theater | 11/05/18 |
| House-broken sex offender | 11/05/18 |
| Walnut heady theater | 11/05/18 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 01/08/19 |
| Dull anal | 02/23/19 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 03/13/19 |
| Crimson Reading Party | 06/24/19 |
| misunderstood turdskin | 06/24/19 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 11/18/19 |
| exhilarant plaza | 02/12/20 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 02/12/20 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 03/24/20 |
| bearded roommate | 03/24/20 |
| Razzle-dazzle step-uncle's house brethren | 04/04/20 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 04/26/20 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 05/13/20 |
| Razzle-dazzle step-uncle's house brethren | 06/05/20 |
| sooty masturbator community account | 06/05/20 |
| Razzle-dazzle step-uncle's house brethren | 09/09/20 |
| exhilarant plaza | 09/09/20 |
| crusty sweet tailpipe state | 09/09/20 |
| Bright hideous twinkling uncleanness factory reset button | 09/12/20 |
| boistinker | 09/24/20 |
| misunderstood turdskin | 10/09/20 |
| Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life | 10/10/20 |
| drab pocket flask | 10/22/20 |
| vigorous elite mother | 10/22/20 |
| charismatic indecent lay faggot firefighter | 10/22/20 |
| charismatic indecent lay faggot firefighter | 10/22/20 |
| chocolate | 03/23/22 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 10/27/20 |
| House-broken sex offender | 10/27/20 |
| misunderstood turdskin | 10/30/20 |
| Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life | 11/03/20 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 03/22/22 |
| Citrine Shaky Toilet Seat | 03/23/22 |
| lime mischievous | 03/23/22 |
| bat shit crazy friendly grandma | 03/23/22 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 07/25/22 |
| crusty sweet tailpipe state | 07/25/22 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 10/23/22 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 11/16/22 |
| iridescent hilarious wrinkle | 04/25/23 |
| Provocative judgmental jew brunch | 04/25/23 |
| boistinker | 04/29/23 |
| slimy awkward toaster | 05/28/23 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 02/22/24 |
| boistinker | 02/23/24 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 05/23/24 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 08/26/24 |
| boistinker | 09/13/24 |
| crusty sweet tailpipe state | 09/13/24 |
| boistinker | 10/18/24 |
| aggressive massive knife | 10/11/24 |
| Plum concupiscible address | 11/06/24 |
| dead death wish dingle berry | 03/04/25 |
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| alcoholic indian lodge affirmative action | 03/04/25 |
| aggressive massive knife | 03/04/25 |
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| Plum concupiscible address | 03/07/25 |
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| Smoky spot | 02/18/26 |
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| chopped manlet | 09/22/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: sexy amber casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: House-broken sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Walnut heady theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Walnut heady theater another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Bateful codepig athletic conference 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Federal Legend Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: white locale "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: crusty sweet tailpipe state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Unholy juggernaut office 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Smoky spot 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Pungent tantric area organic girlfriend Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: mind-boggling embarrassed to the bone crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: multi-colored center FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: shimmering aromatic weed whacker hairy legs Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Godawful Mint Piazza Idea He Suggested Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: autistic locus foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: violent kink-friendly electric furnace tank Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Nofapping laughsome church Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: thriller meetinghouse preventive strike Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Titillating Public Bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Razzmatazz haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: saffron 180 range 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: autistic locus foreskin November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: transparent nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Crimson Reading Party Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: arousing sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Provocative judgmental jew brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Frum splenetic field lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: learning disabled hospital March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: translucent business firm kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Red exciting hall 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Stimulating clear tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: talented insecure partner lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Avocado diverse newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: dead death wish dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Contagious Rigpig National Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Appetizing brass home Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: shimmering aromatic weed whacker hairy legs OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: shimmering aromatic weed whacker hairy legs And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Floppy mustard orchestra pit 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: glittery menage mediation fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: mahogany stage I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: slap-happy nursing home 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: filthy volcanic crater property February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: vivacious hateful stock car box office You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Trip Site Dog Poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Crimson Reading Party Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Cheese-eating effete idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Curious dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Fighting useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Razzle lodge rigor Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: charismatic indecent lay faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Lascivious orange resort This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: ultramarine duck-like set 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Scarlet Gaming Laptop School Cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: self-centered free-loading fortuitous meteor Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: excitant startled pozpig coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: House-broken sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: bistre stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Red exciting hall 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: thriller meetinghouse preventive strike flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Crimson Reading Party Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: excitant startled pozpig coldplay fan From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: chartreuse temple 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: electric metal incel native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Galvanic peach sandwich messiness An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: rambunctious twinkling love of her life 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Galvanic peach sandwich messiness I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: House-broken sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Galvanic peach sandwich messiness Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: rambunctious twinkling love of her life No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Fighting useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Red exciting hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Flirting faggotry 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Red exciting hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: excitant startled pozpig coldplay fan http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Red exciting hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: excitant startled pozpig coldplay fan looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Coral library 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29677863) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Crimson Reading Party You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29677913) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Slate Supple Ticket Booth OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#29877434) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: chartreuse temple yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Curious dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30065970) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Avocado diverse newt http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Trip Site Dog Poop jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Unholy juggernaut office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Fighting useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: House-broken sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: sinister harsh antidepressant drug marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: vengeful keepsake machete theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30310760) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30353572) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Grizzly Den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: soul-stirring buff kitchen Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: soul-stirring buff kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Sapphire blood rage holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: zippy stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Flirting faggotry 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: dead death wish dingle berry Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: henna potus institution Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Provocative judgmental jew brunch This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Curious dilemma In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Provocative judgmental jew brunch cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle step-uncle's house brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Fighting useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Flirting faggotry 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Adventurous chrome parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Marvelous insanely creepy therapy Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: histrionic space Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Flirting faggotry holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Stirring point headpube LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Flirting faggotry 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Flirting faggotry lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Stimulating clear tanning salon Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: snowy out-of-control corn cake September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Lemon filthpig station September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Walnut heady theater god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: exhilarant plaza XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: alcoholic indian lodge affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Lavender Swashbuckling Market Dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Lavender Swashbuckling Market Dysfunction The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Flirting faggotry let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Flirting faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: shimmering aromatic weed whacker hairy legs This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Hairraiser theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: slimy awkward toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Stimulating clear tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Flirting faggotry 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: amethyst aphrodisiac senate place of business This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: sinister harsh antidepressant drug marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Irate Well-lubricated Cruise Ship Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Flirting faggotry hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Boyish twisted school Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Flirting faggotry doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Maize Adulterous Stag Film half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: histrionic space close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Fighting useless brakes Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: exhilarant plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Odious location mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: slap-happy nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: pale stage You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Dashing Sienna Heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: cracking gay wizard Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Motley corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Lavender Swashbuckling Market Dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: bespoke rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: snowy out-of-control corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Magenta whorehouse laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: exhilarant plaza GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: bespoke rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: histrionic space it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: dead death wish dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: vigorous elite mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: arousing sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Cheese-eating effete idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: aggressive massive knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Primrose Bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: blathering comical parlor Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: irradiated stubborn azn fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: khaki ratface 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: vigorous elite mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Fighting useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Provocative judgmental jew brunch this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Flirting faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: greedy yapping pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Bisexual spectacular cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: fragrant main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Pungent tantric area organic girlfriend you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: bistre stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Coral library Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Walnut heady theater bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: church building mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Obsidian racy principal's office circlehead ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Slate Supple Ticket Booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Lavender Swashbuckling Market Dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Bronze voyeur They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: offensive canary hominid Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Cheese-eating effete idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: aggressive massive knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: At-the-ready (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Maize Adulterous Stag Film GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: violet chad https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Walnut heady theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: At-the-ready (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Walnut heady theater truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Irate Well-lubricated Cruise Ship Deer Antler TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: flesh giraffe I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Irate Well-lubricated Cruise Ship Deer Antler it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: silver cuckoldry ceo https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Smoky spot this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: exhilarant plaza One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: House-broken sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Dark arrogant half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Sepia Milk Mad Cow Disease credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: painfully honest (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: misanthropic philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: alcoholic pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Flirting faggotry Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Walnut heady theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: alcoholic indian lodge affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Unholy juggernaut office It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Walnut heady theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Lemon filthpig station Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Crimson Reading Party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Walnut heady theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: House-broken sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Walnut heady theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Dull anal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Crimson Reading Party There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: misunderstood turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: exhilarant plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: bearded roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle step-uncle's house brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle step-uncle's house brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: sooty masturbator community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle step-uncle's house brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: exhilarant plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: crusty sweet tailpipe state Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Bright hideous twinkling uncleanness factory reset button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: misunderstood turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: drab pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: vigorous elite mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: charismatic indecent lay faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: charismatic indecent lay faggot firefighter https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: chocolate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: House-broken sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: misunderstood turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Lake Trailer Park Goal In Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Citrine Shaky Toilet Seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: lime mischievous (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: bat shit crazy friendly grandma 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: crusty sweet tailpipe state A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: iridescent hilarious wrinkle https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Provocative judgmental jew brunch why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: slimy awkward toaster FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: crusty sweet tailpipe state One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: aggressive massive knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: dead death wish dingle berry 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: dead death wish dingle berry https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: alcoholic indian lodge affirmative action Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: aggressive massive knife The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Copper Impertinent Gaping He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Bonkers purple halford 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Plum concupiscible address "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: hyperactive shitlib background story Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Smoky spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Plum concupiscible address ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: Infuriating jade french chef i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: goyim Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#50060136) |
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Date: September 22nd, 2026 2:45 PM Author: chopped manlet (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310915#50149615) |