A search for a solution to the crisis in Haiti is growing more urgent as gangs gain territory and thousands more flee their homes.

By Frances Robles

Reporting from Florida

Nov. 17, 2024, 5:03 a.m. ET

Haiti, a nation rocked by gang cruelty and plagued with political infighting, has — so far this year — had three prime ministers, seen at least 4,000 people killed and experienced brutality from armed groups so intense that it forced an extended closure of its international airport, twice.

But despite $600 million spent by Washington on an international police force to restore order, an explosion of violence last week underscored the enormity of a crisis so severe that the Federal Aviation Administration has barred U.S. aircraft from flying under 10,000 feet in Haitian airspace to avoid being shot at by gangs.

With another interim prime minister in place, but gangs gaining territory every day, Haitians are desperate for relief. Efforts to stabilize Haiti are floundering, and the country presents a dangerous and disastrous challenge as President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to take office.

Few people seem to have answers.

“I am a complete loss,” said Susan D. Page, a University of Michigan Law professor and former United Nations official in Haiti. “Everyone is just kind of astounded.”

What’s going on?

Haiti has experienced a long-simmering crisis for about 15 years, a period marked by a devastating earthquake, squandered aid dollars, tarnished international interventions and flawed presidential elections.

In 2021, the president, Jovenel Moïse, was assassinated in his house. The United States played a hand in deciding who would become the next prime minister, but many Haitians opposed the choice, Ariel Henry. During his three-year tenure, killings and kidnappings by well-armed gangs surged.

The United States had little appetite for sending its own troops to take on the criminal groups. Instead, the Biden administration devised a plan for an international mission made up mostly of Kenyan police officers to help support the local police.

In February, while Mr. Henry was in Kenya finalizing the plan’s details, rival gangs in Haiti banded together, unleashed terror and forced him out.

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For months, the main airport was closed, neighborhoods were burned and civilians were killed. To fill the power vacuum, the United States and Caribbean countries helped Haiti hatch a plan for a nine-member transitional presidential council to rule the country.

A former U.N. official, Garry Conille, was named interim prime minister. The Kenyans arrived in June and gangs appeared, at least briefly, to pull back.

What’s happening now?

The presidential council announced last week that it had fired Mr. Conille and replaced him.

In an apparent effort to sow mayhem and demonstrate that they still wield considerable power, gang leaders escalated their attacks. They shot at least three U.S. aircraft on Monday and took over more neighborhoods in Port-au-Prince, the capital.

Videos circulated on social media showed people running through streets, many lugging children and suitcases.

An already grim situation could get worse. Gangs have traditionally steered clear of upper-class neighborhoods where wealthy Haitians, diplomats and international humanitarian aid workers live. But experts fear that could soon change, leaving the entire capital in the hands of armed groups that some are now calling “paramilitaries.”

So what now?

The Kenyan-led mission the Biden administration created and funded is widely viewed as a disappointment. Few other countries contributed money, leaving the force with less than 400 police officers, far less than the 2,500 initially envisioned.

Mr. Trump has made disparaging comments about Haiti, and many people think he will make the Kenyans leave as soon as he takes office. (His team did not respond to a request for comment.)

The Biden administration is pushing hard for the Kenya police mission — known as the Multinational Security Support mission, or M.S.S. — to be converted into an official U.N. peace keeping force. That would solve several problems: a lack of personnel, equipment and money. A U.N. peace keeping force would obligate member nations to contribute financially and provide troops, taking the burden of finding money and officers out of Washington’s hands.

Even though the last U.N. peacekeeping force brought cholera to the country and was embroiled in sexual abuse scandals, the current situation is so desperate that the move would largely be welcomed.

But China and Russia, which have veto power, have made clear that they’re not interested in such a move. The U.N. Security Council is expected to discuss sending an assessment team to Haiti to explore the idea this week, said a senior U.S. official who was not authorized to publicly discuss Haiti policy.

The hope is that the two countries will abstain instead of vetoing the proposal, according to several officials familiar with the talks.

Still, even if a U.N. peacekeeping mission were approved, it would take months to create, the U.S. official said.

The current multinational force is expected to increase to 1,000 officers by the end of the year with the addition of air support from El Salvador and marine support from the Bahamas, the official said. Haiti will also soon get about 20 more armored vehicles.

The mission was hampered because countries in the Caribbean and Latin America with a direct interest in preventing a mass migration out of Haiti did not provide the help they should have, the official said.

President Biden discussed a U.N. peacekeeping force with President Xi Jinping of China during their meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru on Saturday, but the Chinese leader did not change his mind, national security advisor Jake Sullivan.

If the U.N. Security Council rejects the move, another option would be to beef up the multinational mission. But Congress has balked at spending more money for Haiti.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic plans, maintained that the United States has kept the Haitian government from collapsing.

Will negotiating with gangs be necessary?

Vanda Felbab-Brown, an expert on nonstate armed groups at the Brookings Institution, said that if the crisis persists, it will likely force the Haitian government to make an unpalatable, but perhaps necessary move.

“If desperation reaches epic proportions, I think a more likely scenario is to see the political system” negotiate with the gangs, she said, adding that “would give gangs more power than they have already.”

That’s easier said than done. There are up to 20 different gangs operating in Port-au-Prince, and many of them have committed horrific crimes. While gang leaders talk openly about wanting a “seat at the table,” they have not offered to lay down their weapons, and the Haitian government is determined not to negotiate from a position of weakness, several experts said.

Nobody is seriously discussing amnesty for gang leaders who have committed multiple homicides. But with gangs having an estimated 12,000 members — half of them minors — serious talks would eventually have to take place to figure out how to disarm, demobilize and reintegrate them into society, the first U.S. official said.

Many gang members are desperately poor teenagers who lack job opportunities. Analysts agree that the Haiti needs to implement significant job training and educational programs to lure children from the grips of armed groups that pay a regular salary.

Talks are unlikely to start until the M.S.S. and the Haitian National Police succeed in capturing or killing top leaders, a goal that they have yet to achieve.

Stemming the flow of guns

Several Haiti experts stressed that the United States needs to do more to end the flow of guns from its shores to Haiti. Whether the solution is a full arms embargo or tougher sanctions on people known to finance and control gangs, experts agreed that the crisis will not end until high-powered weapons are off the streets.

“This is what Haitians have been consistently saying: ‘We do not produce guns,’” said Nathalie Frédéric Pierre, a Haiti expert at Howard University. “This is what is choking our society.”

Several Haitians interviewed expressed disappointment that the United States had spent so much money on the international force rather spending more on the Haitian National Police, which is vastly understaffed and ill-equipped.

“We wasted a lot of time money and energy that could have been invested in to our own Haitian solution,” said Vélina Élysée Charlier, a human-rights activist in Port-au-Prince.

Leslie Voltaire, who is currently president of the transitional presidential council — a position that rotates every few months — said he hopes to see the police accomplish a few victories against the gangs, even if it’s against “low-hanging fruit.”

“We are seeing that the international community is helping, but in a very slow way,” he said.

He hopes to see the Kenya mission reinforced with a better flow of supplies.

He said he is working on an action plan to submit to the international community that includes constitutional reform and planning for presidential elections next November.

“This is our road map, but it is very bumpy,” he said.

He does not know whether Mr. Trump will end the Kenya-led mission.

“I sent a tweet to him saying congratulations,” Mr. Voltaire said. “I know he loves tweets.”

He hasn’t heard back.

Zolan Kanno-Youngs, David C. Adams and André Paultre contributed reporting.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5635818&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48348813)

Several Haiti experts stressed that the United States needs to do more to end the flow of guns from its shores to Haiti. Whether the solution is a full arms embargo or tougher sanctions on people known to finance and control gangs, experts agreed that the crisis will not end until high-powered weapons are off the streets.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5635818&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48349192)