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Nate Silver's thoughtful day-after musings on why the models were so wrong again

I'll link it here if he winds up publishing something
An 8-INT Orc AA'ing their way into mage school
  11/06/24
this outcome is within the first std. deviation of probable ...
38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok
  11/06/24
I can't find that anywhere
;..........,,,...,,.;.,,...,,,;.;.
  11/06/24
"We had Trump winning somewhere between 219 and 312 vot...
An 8-INT Orc AA'ing their way into mage school
  11/06/24
then do it. statisticians at this level make bank. ezpz. you...
38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok
  11/06/24
What's their value when they can't beat the RCP "no tos...
LathamTouchedMe
  11/06/24
do you think that rcp doesn't use probability too? all the &...
38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok
  11/06/24
You're the one being obtuse. You don't see the difference be...
LathamTouchedMe
  11/06/24
Silver has jumped the shark into laughably false precision t...
DrakeMallardxo
  11/06/24
i never see anyone criticizing this shit putting their money...
38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok
  11/06/24
Elections are not probabilistic.
ceci n'est pas un avocat
  11/06/24
what do you even mean by this
38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok
  11/06/24
they are when you sample
.,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,..,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,.
  11/06/24
"putting their money where their mouth is and making th...
the walter white of this generation (walt jr.)
  11/06/24
the issue is that the critiques here are not intelligent and...
38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok
  11/06/24
Welcome back
LaTigious Jackson, civil rights attorney
  11/06/24
"all the "no toss up" map does is average out...
38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok
  11/06/24
You're deep diving into some semantics about model or aggreg...
LathamTouchedMe
  11/06/24
you're the one that brought up aggregator versus model. i...
38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok
  11/06/24
For most people the value is just entertainment. Does anybod...
Cornel West
  11/06/24
I don't know whether Silver's modeling is any good, or if hi...
David Poaster Wallace
  11/06/24
mfcr
Cornel West
  11/06/24
cr. i'm not commenting on silver's model per se, only that t...
38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok
  11/06/24
...
Monday Preceding Apocalypse
  11/06/24
Nate: “by the way, I REALLY need bus fare”
..................,.....,.,,.,.....
  11/06/24
...
infraphysics is hetero
  11/06/24
Nate wasn't really wrong, but I think the takeaway this time...
Holy smokes! Literally, nothing? tp
  11/06/24


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 12:42 PM
Author: An 8-INT Orc AA'ing their way into mage school

I'll link it here if he winds up publishing something

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48300075)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 12:45 PM
Author: 38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok (gunneratttt)

this outcome is within the first std. deviation of probable outcomes.

not even nate anymore (worse) but 538 has has 297 evs for trump as the third most likely outcome. with 312 being the most likely.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

how do you think probability works?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48300090)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 12:47 PM
Author: ;..........,,,...,,.;.,,...,,,;.;.


I can't find that anywhere

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48300098)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 2:16 PM
Author: An 8-INT Orc AA'ing their way into mage school

"We had Trump winning somewhere between 219 and 312 votes 68% of the time!"

Lmao at this cope. I could have done that too.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48300902)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 2:25 PM
Author: 38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok (gunneratttt)

then do it. statisticians at this level make bank. ezpz. you'll be the next lichtman!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48300980)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 2:36 PM
Author: LathamTouchedMe

What's their value when they can't beat the RCP "no toss ups" map, which got 49/50 states?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48301069)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 2:42 PM
Author: 38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok (gunneratttt)

do you think that rcp doesn't use probability too? all the "no toss up" map does is average out the polls and assign a win based on polling average. it's a model just like any other, except that it just weighs every poll equally and spits out only the most likely result. other models are more advanced because they weigh polls differently and give you the probability of each result.

hard to tell if you're being obtuse or really just a dunning kruger midwit. but if you don't find value in statistical models no one is forcing you to pay them any mind.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48301110)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 2:53 PM
Author: LathamTouchedMe

You're the one being obtuse. You don't see the difference between a simple poll aggregator and Silver's or 538's crazy complicated black-box model that includes shit like Fed Reserve economic data and "convention poll bounce smoother"? If they're going to make something more complicated, they're going to have to show why it's worth the trouble.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48301195)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 2:54 PM
Author: DrakeMallardxo (🦆)

Silver has jumped the shark into laughably false precision that creates a model with no explanatory power

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48301209)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 3:06 PM
Author: 38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok (gunneratttt)

i never see anyone criticizing this shit putting their money where their mouth is and making their own predictions. it's just "god damn it, most probable outcome didn't happen, fucking thing is useless!"

it's as if i said "if you flip a coin twice there's a 75% chance it won't land on heads twice", and then when it does, you rage about how stupid my prediction was.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48301316)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 4:42 PM
Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat

Elections are not probabilistic.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48302038)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 4:44 PM
Author: 38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok (gunneratttt)

what do you even mean by this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48302057)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 5:46 PM
Author: .,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,..,:::,.,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,.


they are when you sample

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48302402)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 4:58 PM
Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.)

"putting their money where their mouth is and making their own predictions"

What in the fuck are you talking about? Every goddamn poaster here made a strong prediction about the race? Do you mean make your own model? And if so, you realize it's perfect legitimate to criticize a product/service that you don't or even can't provide yourself, right? Especially if part of your criticism is that the whole class of products is stupid and shouldn't exist?

"it's as if i said "if you flip a coin twice there's a 75% chance it won't land on heads twice", and then when it does, you rage about how stupid my prediction was."

No, it's more like if I read your palm and told you that a very big opportunity would be coming your way in a very short period of time, and then your wife and kids died in a car crash and I was like "see, this creates an opportunity in its own way for you to start anew with a new wife and new kids," and you were like "no my face and balls were destroyed in the accident," and I was like "oh, well, I said 'short period of time' so it probably hasn't happened yet."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48302133)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:25 PM
Author: 38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok (gunneratttt)

the issue is that the critiques here are not intelligent and completely misunderstand was the product is and what it does.

this is no different than when a client engages you for legal services and you coach them on what's likely to happen, and they still have expectations completely out of line with what you explained. and no matter how much you explain what's going on they're like "yeah, but i want x outcome!"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48302295)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:32 PM
Author: LaTigious Jackson, civil rights attorney (FAGGOTCHIPPER / Hegemon)

Welcome back

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48302343)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 3:04 PM
Author: 38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok (gunneratttt)

"all the "no toss up" map does is average out the polls and assign a win based on polling average. it's a model just like any other, except that it just weighs every poll equally and spits out only the most likely result. other models are more advanced because they weigh polls differently and give you the probability of each result."

you're retarded. that's exactly what i said. what do you think is the difference between a "aggregator" and a "model" aside from the more advanced analysis of the data? yes, it does other things beyond weighing polls, but you didn't seem to even understand that much.

state your most advanced statistics course before i engage you further.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48301293)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 3:17 PM
Author: LathamTouchedMe

You're deep diving into some semantics about model or aggregator, which I was never arguing about. I'm simply saying, Silver and his colleagues have not presented a good case justifying their far more complicated models. They're adding shit on like a Defense Contractor and it doesn't appear to produce better results. I think the aggregators proved their worth over the past 20 years. It's better than relying on a single poll, like pundits did in the olden days.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48301407)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 3:34 PM
Author: 38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok (gunneratttt)

you're the one that brought up aggregator versus model.

it does produce results when the models are used with things that can be repeated. the issue is that an election cannot be repeated and tested against the model. you have no idea whether if you ran the election 100 times how the distribution would work out. but there will always be outliers.

in events that can be repeated these models prove how predicative they are. as well as when you consider individual events over a long period of time.

people that just say "wow, an outlier happened, therefore this is crap" don't understand what a stupid statement that is. outliers are *guaranteed* to happen. and in this case, the results were well within silver's most probable results. if you think you can do better, do it, because then you'd be making millions instead of passionately arguing about shit you don't even know the fundamentals of.

hth.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48301543)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 4:43 PM
Author: Cornel West

For most people the value is just entertainment. Does anybody besides those running the campaigns really *need* an in depth statistical projection of election outcomes? No. But it's neat

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48302051)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 4:40 PM
Author: David Poaster Wallace

I don't know whether Silver's modeling is any good, or if his pollster ratings are accurate. However, he is really good at demonstrating just how impossible it is for wordcels to wrap their heads around basic frequentist concepts.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48302025)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 4:45 PM
Author: Cornel West

mfcr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48302063)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 4:58 PM
Author: 38 BMI and Age Cat Mom Sobbing on TikTok (gunneratttt)

cr. i'm not commenting on silver's model per se, only that this result appears to be solidly within his range of most likely outcomes, so it's retarded that people are even like "wrong again!"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48302132)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:44 PM
Author: Monday Preceding Apocalypse (No Future)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48302393)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 12:46 PM
Author: ..................,.....,.,,.,.....


Nate: “by the way, I REALLY need bus fare”

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48300092)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2024 3:35 PM
Author: infraphysics is hetero



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48301545)



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Date: November 6th, 2024 6:02 PM
Author: Holy smokes! Literally, nothing? tp (Historical Faggot)

Nate wasn't really wrong, but I think the takeaway this time is that it matters way more whether you have good quality polls. The big news from this election is how good Atlas Intel is, and it's probably time for Ann Selzer to update her methodology. Polling methodology is really important, while polling aggregates are pretty uniform. 538, Nate, RCP. Karl Rove looks at all of them. But they all converged on 50/50 in the end as the last week of Harris surge wiped out a more accurate Trump lead. Pollsters won, aggregators lost. Beating the average and being right now is everything.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628539&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310919",#48302466)