The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Very Tactful Shrine | 12/10/15 |
| Wild boiling water | 12/12/15 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 01/02/17 |
| domesticated thriller senate skinny woman | 01/06/16 |
| obsidian philosopher-king | 01/06/16 |
| obsidian philosopher-king | 06/05/16 |
| Contagious church building | 03/26/16 |
| Talented know-it-all step-uncle's house trust fund | 01/02/17 |
| Histrionic flirting antidepressant drug alpha | 10/25/18 |
| rough-skinned impressive tank pit | 12/10/15 |
| mind-boggling main people associate | 12/10/15 |
| slate site rigpig | 12/10/15 |
| stimulating parlor | 12/10/15 |
| Irradiated turquoise forum | 12/15/15 |
| internet-worthy sound barrier ratface | 12/10/15 |
| bateful mauve public bath | 12/10/15 |
| zombie-like tripping university | 12/10/15 |
| electric house | 12/11/15 |
| bull headed water buffalo | 12/12/15 |
| curious boltzmann base | 12/16/15 |
| Awkward Market Tattoo | 01/04/16 |
| Twinkling Supple Sanctuary | 11/09/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 12/11/15 |
| canary splenetic pistol | 12/11/15 |
| hot nudist center | 12/11/15 |
| electric house | 12/11/15 |
| Insane Green Orchestra Pit Mad Cow Disease | 12/12/15 |
| Orange Incel | 01/25/16 |
| Lemon national | 11/10/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 12/12/15 |
| Blathering community account | 12/12/15 |
| bronze painfully honest fortuitous meteor | 12/12/15 |
| mahogany razzmatazz affirmative action | 12/12/15 |
| passionate disturbing trump supporter | 12/15/15 |
| Aqua Nowag Doctorate | 12/21/15 |
| Amethyst Resort | 12/12/15 |
| claret nursing home faggot firefighter | 12/12/15 |
| Heady Chest-beating Factory Reset Button Cuckoldry | 12/12/15 |
| topaz low-t genital piercing | 12/12/15 |
| provocative sick stage | 12/12/15 |
| Razzle Sinister Crackhouse | 12/12/15 |
| bateful mauve public bath | 12/15/15 |
| bateful mauve public bath | 12/16/15 |
| crawly dog poop | 12/15/15 |
| Milky soul-stirring deer antler | 12/15/15 |
| boyish deranged brethren | 12/15/15 |
| Gaped institution | 12/15/15 |
| Mentally impaired ocher organic girlfriend | 12/15/15 |
| Slap-happy Circlehead | 12/15/15 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 12/15/15 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 12/15/15 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 12/15/15 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 12/15/15 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 12/15/15 |
| Violet lodge | 01/05/16 |
| Orange Incel | 01/25/16 |
| Lavender Parlour | 12/17/16 |
| laughsome cowardly private investor | 05/18/16 |
| frozen shimmering gaming laptop | 08/12/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 11/09/16 |
| Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness | 11/09/16 |
| hideous generalized bond pocket flask | 11/09/16 |
| Scarlet cracking son of senegal theater stage | 10/22/20 |
| aromatic school cafeteria goyim | 12/15/15 |
| Floppy Ladyboy | 12/16/15 |
| Slippery crotch mexican | 12/16/15 |
| Cordovan Temple Travel Guidebook | 12/16/15 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 12/16/15 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 12/17/15 |
| odious impertinent whorehouse | 12/18/15 |
| domesticated thriller senate skinny woman | 01/06/16 |
| clear mad-dog skullcap | 12/18/15 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 12/21/15 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 12/21/15 |
| Aqua Nowag Doctorate | 12/21/15 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 12/30/15 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 12/30/15 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 01/04/16 |
| Awkward Market Tattoo | 01/04/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 01/05/16 |
| Orange Incel | 01/25/16 |
| odious impertinent whorehouse | 01/05/16 |
| cream naked home | 01/05/16 |
| Rusted degenerate stead | 01/05/16 |
| chestnut marvelous hunting ground | 01/05/16 |
| autistic lime psychic principal's office | 01/05/16 |
| chestnut marvelous hunting ground | 01/05/16 |
| domesticated thriller senate skinny woman | 01/06/16 |
| chestnut marvelous hunting ground | 01/06/16 |
| autistic lime psychic principal's office | 01/05/16 |
| frozen shimmering gaming laptop | 01/06/16 |
| Aqua Nowag Doctorate | 01/07/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 01/08/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 01/08/16 |
| Aqua Nowag Doctorate | 01/08/16 |
| odious impertinent whorehouse | 01/09/16 |
| Aqua Nowag Doctorate | 01/10/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 01/18/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 01/19/16 |
| odious impertinent whorehouse | 01/21/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 01/25/16 |
| crimson multi-colored mental disorder regret | 01/25/16 |
| Orange Incel | 01/25/16 |
| crimson multi-colored mental disorder regret | 02/09/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 09/06/16 |
| domesticated thriller senate skinny woman | 11/05/18 |
| Costumed rehab yarmulke | 01/29/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 02/01/16 |
| Cocky area ceo | 02/01/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 02/01/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 02/07/16 |
| cream naked home | 02/09/16 |
| chrome pozpig milk | 02/09/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 02/20/16 |
| Bat-shit-crazy zippy gunner ticket booth | 02/20/16 |
| laughsome cowardly private investor | 02/24/16 |
| onyx party of the first part | 02/24/16 |
| Racy Sable Giraffe | 02/27/16 |
| crawly dog poop | 03/09/16 |
| Honey-headed fiercely-loyal pervert | 03/15/16 |
| slate site rigpig | 03/15/16 |
| Milky soul-stirring deer antler | 03/16/16 |
| sooty shaky stag film | 02/24/16 |
| Opaque theatre liquid oxygen | 02/24/16 |
| Milky soul-stirring deer antler | 07/21/16 |
| exhilarant soggy macaca turdskin | 02/24/16 |
| slate site rigpig | 02/27/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/02/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/04/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/09/16 |
| cream naked home | 03/09/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/15/16 |
| laughsome cowardly private investor | 03/15/16 |
| lascivious mewling heaven | 03/15/16 |
| ivory sandwich station | 03/15/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/16/16 |
| bateful mauve public bath | 03/16/16 |
| Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness | 03/23/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/23/16 |
| Heady Chest-beating Factory Reset Button Cuckoldry | 03/26/16 |
| Avocado aphrodisiac theater jew | 03/26/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/26/16 |
| Violet lodge | 03/28/16 |
| Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness | 03/28/16 |
| mind-boggling main people associate | 03/28/16 |
| frozen shimmering gaming laptop | 08/12/16 |
| domesticated thriller senate skinny woman | 11/05/18 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/28/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/29/16 |
| Drab abnormal hominid | 03/29/16 |
| Drab abnormal hominid | 03/29/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/29/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/29/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 04/01/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 04/04/16 |
| Drab abnormal hominid | 04/15/16 |
| snowy point | 04/15/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 04/19/16 |
| sticky immigrant hairy legs | 04/20/16 |
| Bat Shit Crazy Piazza Sneaky Criminal | 04/20/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 04/24/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 04/25/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 04/26/16 |
| hilarious space | 04/26/16 |
| Hyperactive harsh selfie | 04/30/16 |
| insecure menage | 05/01/16 |
| insecure menage | 11/07/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 05/02/16 |
| Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness | 05/02/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 05/03/16 |
| Aquamarine Library Queen Of The Night | 05/03/16 |
| brindle hall clown | 05/03/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 05/04/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 05/04/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 05/05/16 |
| topaz low-t genital piercing | 05/05/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 05/05/16 |
| Opaque theatre liquid oxygen | 05/05/16 |
| Blathering community account | 05/18/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 05/18/16 |
| laughsome cowardly private investor | 05/18/16 |
| Blathering community account | 05/18/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 05/29/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 06/20/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 06/29/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 07/14/16 |
| Grizzly haunting indian lodge | 07/15/16 |
| frozen shimmering gaming laptop | 07/15/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 07/17/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 07/17/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 07/21/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 07/22/16 |
| cheese-eating spot blood rage | 07/22/16 |
| glassy haunted graveyard | 07/23/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 07/24/16 |
| razzle-dazzle cruise ship place of business | 07/25/16 |
| Drab abnormal hominid | 07/25/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 07/27/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 08/05/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 08/09/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 08/12/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 08/12/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 08/12/16 |
| Comical mediation | 08/12/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 08/30/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 08/30/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 09/06/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 09/13/16 |
| Drab abnormal hominid | 09/14/16 |
| Amethyst Resort | 09/14/16 |
| glittery house-broken sex offender | 09/15/16 |
| Maroon school | 09/15/16 |
| obsidian philosopher-king | 09/15/16 |
| Crystalline Plaza Scourge Upon The Earth | 09/15/16 |
| Drunken motley preventive strike | 09/15/16 |
| Umber High-end Trailer Park | 09/19/16 |
| Umber High-end Trailer Park | 09/19/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 09/27/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 09/24/16 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 09/27/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 09/27/16 |
| bateful mauve public bath | 09/27/16 |
| spectacular roast beef | 10/08/16 |
| bistre windowlicker office | 07/29/24 |
| Drab abnormal hominid | 09/28/16 |
| Amethyst Resort | 09/28/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 09/28/16 |
| Bat Shit Crazy Piazza Sneaky Criminal | 09/28/16 |
| snowy point | 09/28/16 |
| red hell | 10/08/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 10/09/16 |
| rose titillating locale cuckold | 10/09/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 10/09/16 |
| Dashing new version bbw | 10/09/16 |
| Drab abnormal hominid | 10/10/16 |
| razzle-dazzle cruise ship place of business | 10/30/16 |
| frozen shimmering gaming laptop | 11/01/16 |
| Crystalline Plaza Scourge Upon The Earth | 11/01/16 |
| khaki trip digit ratio mother | 11/02/16 |
| Gaped institution | 11/02/16 |
| Drab abnormal hominid | 11/07/16 |
| mischievous vengeful candlestick maker den | 11/08/16 |
| Drab abnormal hominid | 11/08/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 11/08/16 |
| Drab abnormal hominid | 11/08/16 |
| Spruce locus | 11/08/16 |
| Maize love of her life property | 11/08/16 |
| Cocky area ceo | 11/08/16 |
| Umber High-end Trailer Park | 11/08/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 11/08/16 |
| Swollen brunch wagecucks | 11/09/16 |
| glittery house-broken sex offender | 11/09/16 |
| Pea-brained church | 11/09/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 11/09/16 |
| Crystalline Plaza Scourge Upon The Earth | 11/09/16 |
| Swollen brunch wagecucks | 11/09/16 |
| razzle-dazzle cruise ship place of business | 11/09/16 |
| topaz low-t genital piercing | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral At-the-ready National Security Agency | 12/03/16 |
| Lemon national | 12/07/16 |
| Lavender Parlour | 12/17/16 |
| Stirring flatulent gas station | 10/11/24 |
| Twisted Plum Newt | 11/09/16 |
| judgmental concupiscible black woman | 11/09/16 |
| galvanic pisswyrm | 11/09/16 |
| Henna adventurous set international law enforcement agency | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral At-the-ready National Security Agency | 11/09/16 |
| frozen shimmering gaming laptop | 11/09/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 11/09/16 |
| Blathering community account | 11/09/16 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 11/09/16 |
| Apoplectic peach toilet seat box office | 11/09/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 11/09/16 |
| yellow chapel | 11/09/16 |
| vibrant puce location feces | 11/09/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 11/09/16 |
| stimulating parlor | 11/09/16 |
| clear mad-dog skullcap | 11/10/16 |
| crimson multi-colored mental disorder regret | 11/10/16 |
| obsidian philosopher-king | 11/10/16 |
| offensive dysfunction | 11/10/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 11/10/16 |
| Drab abnormal hominid | 11/10/16 |
| Bat-shit-crazy zippy gunner ticket booth | 11/10/16 |
| Umber High-end Trailer Park | 11/14/16 |
| Violent irate hospital fanboi | 11/14/16 |
| fishy charismatic round eye lay | 12/04/16 |
| Lavender Parlour | 12/17/16 |
| Stirring flatulent gas station | 10/11/24 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 11/25/16 |
| disgusting bawdyhouse dingle berry | 12/03/16 |
| Dashing new version bbw | 12/04/16 |
| citrine personal credit line | 12/07/16 |
| obsidian philosopher-king | 12/07/16 |
| disgusting bawdyhouse dingle berry | 12/07/16 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 01/02/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 01/02/17 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 01/02/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 01/02/17 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 03/03/20 |
| obsidian philosopher-king | 01/02/17 |
| Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness | 01/16/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 01/20/17 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 01/20/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 01/23/17 |
| red hell | 01/23/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 01/23/17 |
| carnelian seedy tanning salon | 01/23/17 |
| red hell | 01/23/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 01/23/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 01/25/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 01/26/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 02/06/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 02/13/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 02/27/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 05/03/17 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 05/03/17 |
| Silver Field Kitty Cat | 09/21/17 |
| slate site rigpig | 01/23/17 |
| Crystalline Plaza Scourge Upon The Earth | 02/27/17 |
| domesticated thriller senate skinny woman | 03/22/17 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 04/17/17 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 05/08/17 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 06/20/17 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 08/10/17 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 10/15/17 |
| Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness | 10/15/17 |
| Flesh Kitchen Messiness | 10/15/17 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 11/06/17 |
| Ruby godawful depressive | 11/06/17 |
| cyan stage | 11/08/17 |
| hairraiser native | 11/08/17 |
| Fragrant Adulterous Dilemma | 11/13/17 |
| Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness | 12/18/17 |
| useless idiot volcanic crater | 12/18/17 |
| Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness | 12/18/17 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 01/30/18 |
| obsidian philosopher-king | 06/01/18 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 07/18/18 |
| Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness | 07/19/18 |
| Drunken motley preventive strike | 09/20/18 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 09/25/18 |
| mind-boggling main people associate | 10/06/18 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 10/06/18 |
| obsidian philosopher-king | 10/25/18 |
| Maroon school | 10/25/18 |
| Orange Incel | 11/05/18 |
| obsidian philosopher-king | 11/05/18 |
| domesticated thriller senate skinny woman | 11/05/18 |
| obsidian philosopher-king | 11/05/18 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 01/08/19 |
| Sepia beady-eyed gay wizard | 02/23/19 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 03/13/19 |
| Orange Incel | 06/24/19 |
| pearl range cuck | 06/24/19 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 11/18/19 |
| Crystalline Plaza Scourge Upon The Earth | 02/12/20 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 02/12/20 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 03/24/20 |
| Cobalt foreskin | 03/24/20 |
| Grizzly haunting indian lodge | 04/04/20 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 04/26/20 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 05/13/20 |
| Grizzly haunting indian lodge | 06/05/20 |
| 180 Purple Partner | 06/05/20 |
| Grizzly haunting indian lodge | 09/09/20 |
| Crystalline Plaza Scourge Upon The Earth | 09/09/20 |
| rough-skinned impressive tank pit | 09/09/20 |
| Embarrassed to the bone state old irish cottage | 09/12/20 |
| exciting indigo garrison | 09/24/20 |
| pearl range cuck | 10/09/20 |
| Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness | 10/10/20 |
| sickened excitant casino coffee pot | 10/22/20 |
| Cerebral At-the-ready National Security Agency | 10/22/20 |
| Scarlet cracking son of senegal theater stage | 10/22/20 |
| Scarlet cracking son of senegal theater stage | 10/22/20 |
| swashbuckling gay address | 03/23/22 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 10/27/20 |
| domesticated thriller senate skinny woman | 10/27/20 |
| pearl range cuck | 10/30/20 |
| Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness | 11/03/20 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/22/22 |
| Appetizing useless brakes | 03/23/22 |
| Hateful Frisky Reading Party | 03/23/22 |
| Indecent corner friendly grandma | 03/23/22 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 07/25/22 |
| rough-skinned impressive tank pit | 07/25/22 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 10/23/22 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 11/16/22 |
| Very Tactful Shrine | 04/25/23 |
| Blathering community account | 04/25/23 |
| exciting indigo garrison | 04/29/23 |
| bistre windowlicker office | 05/28/23 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 02/22/24 |
| exciting indigo garrison | 02/23/24 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 05/23/24 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 08/26/24 |
| exciting indigo garrison | 09/13/24 |
| rough-skinned impressive tank pit | 09/13/24 |
| exciting indigo garrison | 10/18/24 |
| Stirring flatulent gas station | 10/11/24 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 11/06/24 |
| topaz low-t genital piercing | 03/04/25 |
| topaz low-t genital piercing | 03/04/25 |
| Drunken motley preventive strike | 03/04/25 |
| Stirring flatulent gas station | 03/04/25 |
| Black arousing abode karate | 03/04/25 |
| Diverse codepig business firm | 03/05/25 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/07/25 |
| Sadistic Angry Faggotry | 03/07/25 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/08/25 |
| Rambunctious wonderful mood | 03/08/25 |
| nubile french meetinghouse corn cake | 03/08/25 |
| slate site rigpig | 02/18/26 |
| lfo | 05/15/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Wild boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: domesticated thriller senate skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: obsidian philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: obsidian philosopher-king another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Contagious church building 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Talented know-it-all step-uncle's house trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Histrionic flirting antidepressant drug alpha "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: rough-skinned impressive tank pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: mind-boggling main people associate 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: stimulating parlor Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Irradiated turquoise forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: internet-worthy sound barrier ratface FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: bateful mauve public bath Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: zombie-like tripping university Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: electric house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: bull headed water buffalo Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: curious boltzmann base Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Awkward Market Tattoo Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Twinkling Supple Sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: canary splenetic pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: electric house November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Insane Green Orchestra Pit Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Orange Incel Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Lemon national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Blathering community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: bronze painfully honest fortuitous meteor lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: mahogany razzmatazz affirmative action March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: passionate disturbing trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Aqua Nowag Doctorate 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Heady Chest-beating Factory Reset Button Cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: provocative sick stage Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Razzle Sinister Crackhouse Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: bateful mauve public bath OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: bateful mauve public bath And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: crawly dog poop 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Milky soul-stirring deer antler fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: boyish deranged brethren I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Gaped institution 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Mentally impaired ocher organic girlfriend February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Slap-happy Circlehead You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Violet lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Orange Incel Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Lavender Parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: laughsome cowardly private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: frozen shimmering gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: hideous generalized bond pocket flask Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Scarlet cracking son of senegal theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: aromatic school cafeteria goyim This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Floppy Ladyboy 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Slippery crotch mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Cordovan Temple Travel Guidebook Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: odious impertinent whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: domesticated thriller senate skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: clear mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Aqua Nowag Doctorate 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Awkward Market Tattoo flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Orange Incel Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: odious impertinent whorehouse From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: cream naked home 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Rusted degenerate stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: chestnut marvelous hunting ground An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: autistic lime psychic principal's office 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: chestnut marvelous hunting ground I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: domesticated thriller senate skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: chestnut marvelous hunting ground Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: autistic lime psychic principal's office No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: frozen shimmering gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Aqua Nowag Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Aqua Nowag Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: odious impertinent whorehouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Aqua Nowag Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: odious impertinent whorehouse looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: crimson multi-colored mental disorder regret 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29677863) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Orange Incel You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29677913) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: crimson multi-colored mental disorder regret No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29791782) |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31345881) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: domesticated thriller senate skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#37162047) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29727124) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29732588) |
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Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29771453) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29877406) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Bat-shit-crazy zippy gunner ticket booth OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29877434) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: laughsome cowardly private investor PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29903568) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: onyx party of the first part The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29903615) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: Racy Sable Giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29931652) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: sooty shaky stag film hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Opaque theatre liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29904083) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Milky soul-stirring deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30987707) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: exhilarant soggy macaca turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29904074) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: cream naked home yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: laughsome cowardly private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30065970) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: lascivious mewling heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30066291) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: ivory sandwich station truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30066549) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: bateful mauve public bath March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Heady Chest-beating Factory Reset Button Cuckoldry http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: Avocado aphrodisiac theater jew Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30140513) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Violet lodge jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: mind-boggling main people associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: frozen shimmering gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: domesticated thriller senate skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Drab abnormal hominid lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Drab abnormal hominid "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Drab abnormal hominid interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: snowy point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: sticky immigrant hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Bat Shit Crazy Piazza Sneaky Criminal I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: hilarious space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Hyperactive harsh selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: insecure menage Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: insecure menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Aquamarine Library Queen Of The Night holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: brindle hall clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: topaz low-t genital piercing Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Opaque theatre liquid oxygen Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Blathering community account This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: laughsome cowardly private investor In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Blathering community account cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Grizzly haunting indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: frozen shimmering gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: cheese-eating spot blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: glassy haunted graveyard Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: razzle-dazzle cruise ship place of business Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Drab abnormal hominid amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Comical mediation LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Drab abnormal hominid ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Amethyst Resort Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: glittery house-broken sex offender September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Maroon school September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: obsidian philosopher-king god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Crystalline Plaza Scourge Upon The Earth XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Drunken motley preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Umber High-end Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Umber High-end Trailer Park The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: bateful mauve public bath This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: spectacular roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: bistre windowlicker office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Drab abnormal hominid http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Amethyst Resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Bat Shit Crazy Piazza Sneaky Criminal This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: snowy point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: red hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: rose titillating locale cuckold Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Dashing new version bbw half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Drab abnormal hominid nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: razzle-dazzle cruise ship place of business close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: frozen shimmering gaming laptop Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Crystalline Plaza Scourge Upon The Earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: khaki trip digit ratio mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Gaped institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Drab abnormal hominid prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: mischievous vengeful candlestick maker den You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Drab abnormal hominid true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Drab abnormal hominid ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Spruce locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Maize love of her life property Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Cocky area ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Umber High-end Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Swollen brunch wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: glittery house-broken sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Pea-brained church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Crystalline Plaza Scourge Upon The Earth GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Swollen brunch wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: razzle-dazzle cruise ship place of business it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: topaz low-t genital piercing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Cerebral At-the-ready National Security Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Lemon national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Lavender Parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Stirring flatulent gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Twisted Plum Newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: judgmental concupiscible black woman Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: galvanic pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Henna adventurous set international law enforcement agency 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Cerebral At-the-ready National Security Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: frozen shimmering gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Blathering community account this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Apoplectic peach toilet seat box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: yellow chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: vibrant puce location feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: stimulating parlor you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: clear mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: crimson multi-colored mental disorder regret Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: obsidian philosopher-king bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: offensive dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Drab abnormal hominid ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Bat-shit-crazy zippy gunner ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Umber High-end Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Violent irate hospital fanboi They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: fishy charismatic round eye lay Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Lavender Parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Stirring flatulent gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: disgusting bawdyhouse dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Dashing new version bbw GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: citrine personal credit line https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: obsidian philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: disgusting bawdyhouse dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: obsidian philosopher-king truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: red hell TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: carnelian seedy tanning salon I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: red hell it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Silver Field Kitty Cat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: slate site rigpig this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Crystalline Plaza Scourge Upon The Earth One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: domesticated thriller senate skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Flesh Kitchen Messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Ruby godawful depressive credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: cyan stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: hairraiser native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Fragrant Adulterous Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: useless idiot volcanic crater Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: obsidian philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Drunken motley preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: mind-boggling main people associate It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: obsidian philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Maroon school Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Orange Incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: obsidian philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: domesticated thriller senate skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: obsidian philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Sepia beady-eyed gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Orange Incel There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: pearl range cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Crystalline Plaza Scourge Upon The Earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Cobalt foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#39849877) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Grizzly haunting indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#40354730) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Grizzly haunting indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Crystalline Plaza Scourge Upon The Earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: rough-skinned impressive tank pit Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#40896526) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Cerebral At-the-ready National Security Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Scarlet cracking son of senegal theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Scarlet cracking son of senegal theater stage https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: swashbuckling gay address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: domesticated thriller senate skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: pearl range cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Flickering Coral Twinkling Uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Appetizing useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Hateful Frisky Reading Party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Indecent corner friendly grandma 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: rough-skinned impressive tank pit A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Very Tactful Shrine Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Very Tactful Shrine https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Blathering community account why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: exciting indigo garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: bistre windowlicker office FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: exciting indigo garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: exciting indigo garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: rough-skinned impressive tank pit One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: exciting indigo garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Stirring flatulent gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: topaz low-t genital piercing 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: topaz low-t genital piercing https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Drunken motley preventive strike Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Stirring flatulent gas station The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Black arousing abode karate He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Diverse codepig business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Sadistic Angry Faggotry 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Rambunctious wonderful mood Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: nubile french meetinghouse corn cake Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: slate site rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=my",#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |