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The Economist analysis of Russian summer offensive - link

Regardless of whether and when America decides to supply Ukr...
shaky indian lodge
  10/18/25
I feel like the UA numbers are ridiculously undercounted but...
mustard theatre
  10/18/25
The Ukrainian soldiers are in bunkers protected by drone net...
shaky indian lodge
  10/18/25
I agree with all of that; I'm just more skeptical of UA numb...
mustard theatre
  10/18/25
...
Concupiscible library filthpig
  10/18/25
Trenches and bunkers are not survivable. Mobility is the onl...
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/18/25
You've been spouting this bs for years, and, if it were true...
shaky indian lodge
  10/18/25
It’s has run out of men which is why they are putting ...
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/18/25
To be fair, “Ackkkkshually, if that were true, Ukra...
Titillating pale hell
  10/18/25
...
well-lubricated cocky mental disorder hall
  10/21/25
...
submissive gunner
  10/19/25
If they recruited the way Russia does (relying on volunteers...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/20/25
Since the fall of Avdeevka the fight is increasingly happeni...
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/18/25
I've noticed the absence of any trenches in Ukraine but wher...
swollen glittery corner bbw
  10/24/25
Can’t a bomb destroy a drone net and then the drone fl...
Obsidian maniacal dopamine locale
  10/18/25
Sure, but the russian task is harder. They need to identify ...
Concupiscible library filthpig
  10/18/25
If they sit there they will be killed by mass fires correcte...
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/18/25
The ongoing effect of Ukrain wrecking Russia's oil and gas i...
Orange Stirring Psychic Chapel
  10/18/25
6 MILLION Russian troops are DET to Death and 6 BILLION moar...
Gay Fanboi
  10/18/25
Stay mad turdboi
Orange Stirring Psychic Chapel
  10/18/25
Russia is so fucking good at getting all its soldiers killed...
Pontificating gold market patrolman
  10/18/25
To be fair, “ sneered Adolf Hitler, smugly, c. late...
Titillating pale hell
  10/18/25
...
Cyan Point
  10/18/25
...
submissive gunner
  10/19/25
I asked this question about our Navy - it seems historically...
180 Whorehouse
  10/18/25
If hundreds of one way drones are sent at a carrier, it is l...
canary vibrant site dragon
  10/19/25
I’ve asked the same question before you did. You Stole...
Confused Queen Of The Night
  10/20/25
We won't know for sure until someone launches a drone swarm ...
Turquoise Station Crotch
  10/21/25
hypersonics are not much harder to hit for top of the line A...
submissive gunner
  10/21/25
China claims that their hypersonics are super fast and also ...
Turquoise Station Crotch
  10/21/25
loling at the idea of a missile flying 1000+ miles pulling 1...
submissive gunner
  10/21/25
It is notable that Ukrainians massively overstate their AD s...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/21/25
It is notable that Russiacucks are gullible idiots who belie...
Turquoise Station Crotch
  10/21/25
Russian missiles overwhelmingly hit their targets, the hyper...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/22/25
lol, russian hit rates are up because they basically gave up...
submissive gunner
  10/24/25
...
well-lubricated cocky mental disorder hall
  10/24/25
LJL at this absolute flame. Ukraine only has 80k dead which ...
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/18/25
Ukraine has somehow only lost 80k soldiers, but also on thei...
shimmering forum
  10/18/25
To be fair, Yeah it’s a bit of an “odd case&r...
Titillating pale hell
  10/18/25
Im really shocked that a third world shithole country with a...
Gay Fanboi
  10/18/25
You're misrepresenting the Mediazona report. 219k estimate i...
curious clown sandwich
  10/18/25
The same methodology can’t be used on the Ukrainian si...
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/18/25
To be fair, lol remember when the NYT was keeping a runni...
Titillating pale hell
  10/18/25
Believe this to your hearts content. Russia will win this on...
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/18/25
To be fair, Oh wow well I mean if the notorious midwit re...
Titillating pale hell
  10/18/25
Visual confirmation of 32,121 Russian deaths over the past 2...
curious clown sandwich
  10/20/25
LMAO, at least you didn't cite to some ridiculously biased ....
Diverse tan den potus
  10/20/25
...
submissive gunner
  10/20/25
I actually think his number of FPV strikes is 100% on point ...
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/20/25
...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/20/25
...
Titillating pale hell
  10/20/25
did you read their methodology? it does not include strikes ...
submissive gunner
  10/21/25
LJL at this flame. FPV cameras stop working at the hit. The...
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/21/25
the video is from other drones…
submissive gunner
  10/21/25
...
curious clown sandwich
  10/21/25
"did you read their methodology? it does not include st...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/24/25
This has not been a good war for you, son. But stay mad. We ...
Misanthropic pistol
  10/18/25
It’s actually been a great war for Russia. Without mob...
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/20/25
The art of war: get yourself trapped in a cauldron again and...
shimmering forum
  10/18/25
I've seen no one reliable posting this.
shaky indian lodge
  10/18/25
you only post Ukraine propaganda that gets disproven in 24 h...
shimmering forum
  10/18/25
...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/22/25
Russian forces are back in Krasny Lyman. All Ukrainian gains...
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/18/25
To be fair, Yeah but a very smart and honest Jewish man o...
Titillating pale hell
  10/18/25
Have a ton of pro-Ukraine twitter accounts on my list and wh...
shaky indian lodge
  10/18/25
Ok, bro. Whatever you say. Russia is still going to kill eve...
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/18/25
"I only read Ukraine propaganda" yeah we know. g...
shimmering forum
  10/18/25
Are you Russian? Why the hard-on for them?
shaky indian lodge
  10/18/25
...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/20/25
everything is fine guys, nothing to see here https://x.com/...
shimmering forum
  10/19/25
All Hahols will die.
infuriating vigorous mexican
  10/19/25
I’m sure Putler will succumb to his terminal ass cance...
honey-headed church genital piercing
  10/21/25
we don’t know when of course, but it is funny to watch...
submissive gunner
  10/21/25
Huh? Overwhelmingly similar. What do you imagine changes w...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/22/25
Medvedev??? 🤣🤣🤣🤣
submissive gunner
  10/22/25
He's probably the default guy at this point and has been for...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/22/25
you must be the dumbest russiacuck on the board. congrats
submissive gunner
  10/22/25
LMAO, or maybe they'll be inspired by Zelensky and ask him t...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/22/25
i don't think anything changes in their approach to Ukraine.
honey-headed church genital piercing
  10/22/25
...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/22/25
I can't remember a single rational person ever saying that P...
Turquoise Station Crotch
  10/22/25
...
submissive gunner
  10/22/25
...
Useless spot
  10/22/25
To be fair, LMAO yeah good point... except for the solid ...
Titillating pale hell
  10/24/25
...
well-lubricated cocky mental disorder hall
  10/24/25
...
shimmering forum
  10/24/25
...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/24/25
Did you even read the fucking NYT article about Putin's supp...
Turquoise Station Crotch
  10/24/25
Six Ukrainians die for every Russian. https://x.com/DD_Ge...
swollen glittery corner bbw
  10/24/25
It increased to about 40:1 recently. It is 6:1 if you inclu...
Diverse tan den potus
  10/24/25
lol Russiacucks. Ukraine is advancing https://x.com/cream...
shimmering forum
  10/24/25
Russian elite units are refusing to enter battle and disobey...
shimmering forum
  10/24/25
Seems likely Povrovsk will fall, but if that's Russia's only...
shaky indian lodge
  10/24/25
the prize is hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians
well-lubricated cocky mental disorder hall
  10/24/25
I think everyone agrees with that. Even Ukrainians are sayin...
swollen glittery corner bbw
  10/24/25
Kupiyansk is also in the final stages of collapse. Several ...
.,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,.,.,:::,...,:,...:..:.,:.::,.
  10/26/25
Demoralization
swollen glittery corner bbw
  10/24/25
Do we have any proof of Russian casualties in October 2025? ...
swollen glittery corner bbw
  10/24/25


Poast new message in this thread



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Date: October 18th, 2025 8:47 AM
Author: shaky indian lodge

Regardless of whether and when America decides to supply Ukraine with the powerful missiles, Mr Putin has deeper reasons to worry. According to an analysis by The Economist, it is paying a huge cost in return for minimal gains on the battlefield.

Russia’s summer offensive is winding down. Many in the West focus on the grinding progress its troops have made, and the shortage of Ukrainian manpower it has exposed. But that is to look down the telescope from the wrong end. More striking is how little territory Russia has taken in its third and largest offensive; and the terrible cost it has paid in men and materiel. Unless something dramatic changes, Vladimir Putin will be unable to win the war on the battlefield. The fact that he nevertheless continues to try regardless suggests that he is out of ideas.

Exactly how poorly Russian forces have fared is impossible to tell. But data from satellites and shifts in areas of control suggest when the fighting is intensifying, and that permits a rough guess. This lines up well with more than 200 credible estimates of casualties from Western governments and independent researchers. Combining these data allows The Economist to estimate Russian losses and track them over time.

Our meta-estimate suggests that, from the beginning of the full-scale invasion to January of this year, Russian casualties amounted to 640,000–877,000 soldiers, of whom 137,000–228,000 have died. By October 13th, those totals had risen by almost 60%, to 984,000–1,438,000 casualties, including 190,000–480,000 dead.

Russia’s losses have not won a commensurate gain in territory. Since the battle lines stabilised after Ukraine’s first counteroffensive ended in October 2022, they have barely moved. No large city has changed hands. At the pace of the past 30 days, seizing what remains of the four regions Mr Putin already claims—Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia—would take until June 2030. (For Russia to occupy all of Ukraine would require a further 103 years.)

Moreover, a sudden collapse in Ukraine’s defensive lines is unlikely given how the two armies are fighting the war. Constant drone surveillance, coupled with long-range precision weaponry, has made massing forces near the front suicidal. Incremental gains remain possible—though only at enormous cost—by sending small groups of men into the “kill zone” to stake out forward positions. It is hard to breach Ukrainian lines. Should a breach happen, the advance of massed forces and equipment needed to exploit it is extremely difficult.

Perhaps that is why this summer’s fighting appears to have been much less deadly for Ukraine than for Russia. There is too little data for us to generate a meta-estimate of the cost to Ukraine. However, UALosses, a website, has catalogued 77,403 deaths among Ukrainian soldiers since the full-scale invasion began (it reckons a further 77,842 are missing in action). By date of death, there has been a marked downward trend since last autumn, with 8,668 fatalities recorded this year. Crucially, that is a lower bound, and although independent investigations have confirmed the fate of soldiers in the list, no one knows how many are missing from that count. Moreover, recent deaths are less likely to be in the database, as recording them takes time (some will never be included). But even if the true number is twice the tally, the figures would imply a ratio this year of roughly five Russian soldiers killed for every Ukrainian.

At such rates, manpower may soon become a more serious constraint for Russia than for Ukraine. When the offensive began, Russians were lured with generous sign-on bonuses, and Mr Putin’s recruitment drive outpaced Ukraine’s by 10,000-15,000 per month. But Russia’s heavy casualties this summer probably nullified that advantage.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/europe/2025/10/17/russia-latest-big-ukraine-offensive-gains-next-to-nothing-again

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357428)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 8:55 AM
Author: mustard theatre

I feel like the UA numbers are ridiculously undercounted but otherwise I agree



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357435)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 9:12 AM
Author: shaky indian lodge

The Ukrainian soldiers are in bunkers protected by drone nets and the like. To advance, the Russian soldiers have to expose themselves in the open. Plus, the Russian soldiers need courage to advance against drones. Drone operators can treat the whole thing like a video game.

Bottom line: war has always favored the defender, but that's far more true in the drone age.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357470)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 9:17 AM
Author: mustard theatre

I agree with all of that; I'm just more skeptical of UA numbers since they've been much cagier with them

Also since most of the OSINT people and intelligence sources looking at this conflict that are talking about it are sympathetic to Ukraine it doesn't feel like there are the same incentives for third party analysts to be digging too deep into UA casualty figures.

I'm not saying the reality is some sort of AREReptile crap, trust me.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357477)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 11:15 AM
Author: Concupiscible library filthpig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357639)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 11:33 AM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

Trenches and bunkers are not survivable. Mobility is the only chance at survival at all. Both sides use small 2-4 man teams. It’s literally a giant game of tag. The Russians retain a mass fires advantage that is overwhelming. The kill ratio is something like 12:1 in Russia’s favor.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357663)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 1:24 PM
Author: shaky indian lodge

You've been spouting this bs for years, and, if it were true, Ukraine would have run out of men to fight a long time ago.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357916)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 3:22 PM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

It’s has run out of men which is why they are putting 70 year olds on the line and women.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358108)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 7:07 PM
Author: Titillating pale hell

To be fair,

“Ackkkkshually, if that were true, Ukraine would be facing a serious shortage of manpower by now!”

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358465)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 4:33 AM
Author: well-lubricated cocky mental disorder hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49363386)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2025 3:30 AM
Author: submissive gunner



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49359062)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 20th, 2025 11:48 AM
Author: Diverse tan den potus

If they recruited the way Russia does (relying on volunteers) then they would have run out of men. But unlike Russia they conscript anything that moves.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49361632)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 11:35 AM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

Since the fall of Avdeevka the fight is increasingly happening in tree lines with almost ZERO use of fortifications by either side.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357667)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 10:47 PM
Author: swollen glittery corner bbw

I've noticed the absence of any trenches in Ukraine but where's the footage showing where Russians are living these days? It seems like they stay 100 miles away and use drones until it's safe to enter the area. Every time Ukraine bombs something it's a civilian structure, like they don't know where the military targets are located

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49373140)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 12:29 PM
Author: Obsidian maniacal dopamine locale

Can’t a bomb destroy a drone net and then the drone fly through

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357792)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 1:07 PM
Author: Concupiscible library filthpig

Sure, but the russian task is harder. They need to identify where these fortifications are and then find a way to breach them. The ukrainians can litter the landscape with mines and drones and wait for russian assault teams to come out in the open and get chewed up.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357885)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 3:43 PM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

If they sit there they will be killed by mass fires corrected by drones. Drones make a static defense suicide. Trenches on the line are not manned full time. The gray zone is 50km deep. The only thing even more obsolete than armored thrusts is static defense.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358134)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 9:02 AM
Author: Orange Stirring Psychic Chapel

The ongoing effect of Ukrain wrecking Russia's oil and gas is going to be interesting. Russia is starting to see real protest on the streets already.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357446)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 9:03 AM
Author: Gay Fanboi

6 MILLION Russian troops are DET to Death and 6 BILLION moar are injured according to my sources at the Jewish Information Agency

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357450)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 9:04 AM
Author: Orange Stirring Psychic Chapel

Stay mad turdboi

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357454)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 9:50 AM
Author: Pontificating gold market patrolman

Russia is so fucking good at getting all its soldiers killed, truly the best

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357518)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 7:10 PM
Author: Titillating pale hell

To be fair,

“ sneered Adolf Hitler, smugly, c. late 1942.

How did that one ultimately work out again? I know it was an absolutely catastrophic bloodbath for Russia, but I can’t actually remember which country ultimately “won” the war at the end of the fighting. Can you remind me?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358471)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 10:41 PM
Author: Cyan Point



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358835)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2025 3:33 AM
Author: submissive gunner



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49359065)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 10:00 AM
Author: 180 Whorehouse

I asked this question about our Navy - it seems historically that carrier units are sitting ducks once their location is known.

What use are they in the age of cheap drones and smart missiles?

Seems like that's almost even true on land now? Good luck getting past an enemy with long range weapons and drones watching your every move.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357532)



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Date: October 19th, 2025 3:22 AM
Author: canary vibrant site dragon

If hundreds of one way drones are sent at a carrier, it is likely the carrier deck gets hit multiple times. If planes can't take off from the carrier because of deck damage then the carrier is no use and will have to go back to port for repairs.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49359060)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 20th, 2025 12:46 PM
Author: Confused Queen Of The Night

I’ve asked the same question before you did. You Stole this from me. Military meatheads think a Carrier Battle Group is invincible.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49361725)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 4:34 AM
Author: Turquoise Station Crotch

We won't know for sure until someone launches a drone swarm against a carrier group. You're not the first person to wonder if carriers are obsolete in the drone age. But it's far from clear that is the case.

First, it is very fucking difficult to hit a carrier with a long range missile. Modern carriers are fast, and if they detect a missile heading their direction, they can simply move out of the way. That's why China and Russia have spent so much money on hypersonic missiles. The theory is that they are so fast that they will hit a carrier before it can move. And carrier groups also have all kinds of missile interceptor weapons. We won't know if that will work until someone tries it. But we can say that smart missiles will definitely not make carriers obsolete quite yet.

As for drones, I'm sure the Pentagon is watching what is happening in Ukraine and trying to design countermeasures. Furthermore, most drones have relatively short range. You might be able to keep your carrier group safe by keeping it far enough out at sea so that drones can't reach it. But like I said, nobody will know for sure until someone tries it. As Mike Tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49363387)



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Date: October 21st, 2025 4:45 AM
Author: submissive gunner

hypersonics are not much harder to hit for top of the line AD defense missiles unless they can also maneuver, which they can’t

even Ukraine has knocked down multiple Kindzhals, and they don’t have the top of the line stuff that carrier groups do

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49363391)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 12:16 PM
Author: Turquoise Station Crotch

China claims that their hypersonics are super fast and also super maneuverable. Of course, Russia said the same thing, and their hypersonics were so maneuverable that they got completely turfed by Cold War-era Patriot systems. So we won't know until this war happens, but, at the bare minimum, I wouldn't assume that hypersonic smart missiles make carriers obsolete quite yet.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49363847)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 12:18 PM
Author: submissive gunner

loling at the idea of a missile flying 1000+ miles pulling 10-15Gs and hitting a moving target

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49363853)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 12:25 PM
Author: Diverse tan den potus

It is notable that Ukrainians massively overstate their AD successes and their real AD is banning showing the impacts.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49363874)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 21st, 2025 7:22 PM
Author: Turquoise Station Crotch

It is notable that Russiacucks are gullible idiots who believe whatever stupid Russian propaganda they hear. Sorry that your fancy "hypersonic missiles" can't beat a U.S. system that was used in the first Gulf War.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49364902)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2025 2:39 PM
Author: Diverse tan den potus

Russian missiles overwhelmingly hit their targets, the hypersonics hit almost always. The argument is that the system may have gotten a hit, which wouldn't be shocking because they operate based on shockwaves damaging the missile, rather than the "arrow hitting an arrow" concept.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49366488)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 10:38 PM
Author: submissive gunner

lol, russian hit rates are up because they basically gave up on going after areas that the Patriots protect and go for softer targets

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49373117)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 10:58 PM
Author: well-lubricated cocky mental disorder hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49373164)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2025 11:29 AM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

LJL at this absolute flame. Ukraine only has 80k dead which explains why Hahol men are hiding in basements from draft officers and dressing like women to avoid conscription. By conservative measures the Russians have killed 1.7 million Ukrainians and put an equal number into wheel chairs for life. The Russians are ripping 20sq km out of Ukraine daily and have been doing so for 2 years running. The advance is slow but inexorable and they are quite literally genociding Ukraine.

Mediazone/BBC has the most accurate Russian loss estimates — 135-219k dead. That’s 50k per year. Russia can sustain this forever.

https://en.zona.media/article/2025/10/10/casualties_eng-trl



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357659)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 11:39 AM
Author: shimmering forum

Ukraine has somehow only lost 80k soldiers, but also on their 20th mobilization, having to kidnap people off the streets, and hundreds of thousands of desertions

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357678)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:11 PM
Author: Titillating pale hell

To be fair,

Yeah it’s a bit of an “odd case” (hehe)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358473)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 11:42 AM
Author: Gay Fanboi

Im really shocked that a third world shithole country with a Jewish POTUS wld have their JEW overlords in the west putting fake causality numbers in the JEW owned western media so that JEW defense contracts cld continue enriching themselves

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357685)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 12:49 PM
Author: curious clown sandwich

You're misrepresenting the Mediazona report. 219k estimate is from probate court reports and 135k is a confirmed number from obituaries, tombstones, and online social media posts from family. The 219k estimate is also only through the end of August. Reports from telegram accounts note there are at least tens of thousands (maybe more) of additional MIA's on each side. And there are probably a lot of indigents and degenerates who died (they recruited from prisons) and don't have family to report the death online or file for probate.

Mediazona makes clear that the 219k is a low estimate that captures maybe 50-75% of the deaths through the end of August. 2x that is absolutely possible.

The same methodology is used on the Ukraine side as well. The Economist is correct to conclude that this is a stalemated conflict.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357853)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 3:21 PM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

The same methodology can’t be used on the Ukrainian side because they made it illegal to print obituaries and there are no functional probate courts in Ukraine so good luck getting any data at all. There is no good data. The Russian 1.7 million figure is basically from sat images of cemeteries. Mediazone numbers are actually BS overstatements for reasons Armchair Warlord has discussed at length on Twitter — Russians print obits and handle probate for guys that fought in Chechnya in 99, never stepped foot in Ukraine, died in 2023 and now magically are in the Mediazone math because their estates qualify for the same veterans benefits as the guy in Ukraine last month. Mediazone is assuming they signed new contracts with the MoD and didn’t just die from old age. This is nonsense math.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358106)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:15 PM
Author: Titillating pale hell

To be fair,

lol remember when the NYT was keeping a running tally of “Covid deaths” (only during Trump though they immediately stopped that as soon as Biden took office odd case) and it was revealed that they were literally counting people who died in car accidents but had tested positive for Covid a week before they got struck in that count?

Yeah. Same vibes, very interesting! ;)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358479)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 3:24 PM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

Believe this to your hearts content. Russia will win this on the field. Ukraine will collapse. Nothing Yankee animals can do will change this. All Hahols will die. Every single last one.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358111)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:13 PM
Author: Titillating pale hell

To be fair,

Oh wow well I mean if the notorious midwit retard who infamously has shitty and extremely partisan takes on just about every issue imaginable declares so…

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358476)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 11:28 AM
Author: curious clown sandwich

Visual confirmation of 32,121 Russian deaths over the past 260 days. These are only deaths by drones where footage was recorded. So we’re not seeing the many other ways soldiers die in this conflict. It also excludes wounded men in the footage, many of whom probably died shortly after. And it’s only from footage that’s actually posted on telegram channels. The deaths are easily 2x this. US intelligence isn’t exaggerating when they say Russia has suffered over 1 million casualties and likely at least 250k deaths.

https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1979774111191818546?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49361612)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 11:52 AM
Author: Diverse tan den potus

LMAO, at least you didn't cite to some ridiculously biased ... oh, wait, you did.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49361640)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 12:55 PM
Author: submissive gunner



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49361744)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 4:07 PM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

I actually think his number of FPV strikes is 100% on point and the Hahols did hit that many Russians. I just don’t think an FPV strike is a guaranteed kill. It takes something like 20 FPV hits to actually kill a tank. Most IFVs are hit and abandoned to zero losses. For 32000 FPV hits a plausible kill count is maybe 10000 on the high end.

The Russians have more FPVs than Ukraine. Roughly 6 to 1. They also drop about 200 UMPK glide bombs per day. The glide bombs are what are killing entire Ukrainian company formations and why the real kill count is 12 or 13 to 1 in Russia’s favor. The new UMPKs are rocket assisted and have been flying out to 165km ranges. The Ukrainians are doing maybe 25 JDAM sorties a day to 200 on the Russian side. It’s not even close.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49362276)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 5:14 PM
Author: Diverse tan den potus



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49362444)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 8:46 PM
Author: Titillating pale hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49362938)



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Date: October 21st, 2025 3:23 AM
Author: submissive gunner

did you read their methodology? it does not include strikes where the vatnik was still alive during the video recording, so the number of KIA is higher

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49363371)



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Date: October 21st, 2025 6:35 AM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

LJL at this flame. FPV cameras stop working at the hit.

They dont provide post strike anything in these gore vids.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49363445)



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Date: October 21st, 2025 6:58 AM
Author: submissive gunner

the video is from other drones…

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49363465)



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Date: October 21st, 2025 8:05 AM
Author: curious clown sandwich



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49363517)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 4:10 PM
Author: Diverse tan den potus

"did you read their methodology? it does not include strikes where the vatnik was still alive during the video recording, so the number of KIA is higher"

Link?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49371989)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 3:44 PM
Author: Misanthropic pistol

This has not been a good war for you, son. But stay mad. We want you to.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358135)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 8:21 AM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

It’s actually been a great war for Russia. Without mobilizing and spending only 7% of GDP on defense it broke my the back of NATO and emptied every warehouse in the alliance.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49361290)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 11:49 AM
Author: shimmering forum

The art of war: get yourself trapped in a cauldron again and again.

https://x.com/squatsons/status/1979510263553614153

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357700)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 1:33 PM
Author: shaky indian lodge

I've seen no one reliable posting this.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49357931)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 3:45 PM
Author: shimmering forum

you only post Ukraine propaganda that gets disproven in 24 hours. Go back to reddit, tranny

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358136)



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Date: October 22nd, 2025 2:46 PM
Author: Diverse tan den potus



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49366509)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:04 PM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

Russian forces are back in Krasny Lyman. All Ukrainian gains since 2022 are undone.

https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1979654934917419412

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358463)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:17 PM
Author: Titillating pale hell

To be fair,

Yeah but a very smart and honest Jewish man on the internet assured me that 10 million Russians had to die to achieve this and only 20k Ukrainians have stubbed their toes on the battlefield so far. Russia is cooked!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358481)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:21 PM
Author: shaky indian lodge

Have a ton of pro-Ukraine twitter accounts on my list and when something bad is going down, a lot of them are dooming. Am seeing nothing like that now.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358486)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 7:38 PM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

Ok, bro. Whatever you say. Russia is still going to kill every last Hahol.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358512)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 10:20 PM
Author: shimmering forum

"I only read Ukraine propaganda"

yeah we know. go back to reddit

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358806)



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Date: October 18th, 2025 10:29 PM
Author: shaky indian lodge

Are you Russian? Why the hard-on for them?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49358818)



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Date: October 20th, 2025 11:49 AM
Author: Diverse tan den potus



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49361634)



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Date: October 19th, 2025 2:10 PM
Author: shimmering forum

everything is fine guys, nothing to see here

https://x.com/ThorntonWa47373/status/1979591336962699724

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49360002)



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Date: October 19th, 2025 2:13 PM
Author: infuriating vigorous mexican

All Hahols will die.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49360009)



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Date: October 21st, 2025 12:33 PM
Author: honey-headed church genital piercing

I’m sure Putler will succumb to his terminal ass cancer any day now!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49363899)



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Date: October 21st, 2025 2:57 PM
Author: submissive gunner

we don’t know when of course, but it is funny to watch russiacucks squirm when you ask them to describe a post-Putin russia

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49364347)



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Date: October 22nd, 2025 2:40 PM
Author: Diverse tan den potus

Huh? Overwhelmingly similar. What do you imagine changes with Medvedev in charge? If anything, he'll just say bomb every major Ukrainian city to the ground.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49366491)



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Date: October 22nd, 2025 2:41 PM
Author: submissive gunner

Medvedev???

🤣🤣🤣🤣

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49366494)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2025 2:45 PM
Author: Diverse tan den potus

He's probably the default guy at this point and has been for years. Or do you imagine that Navalny's wife will be flown into Moscow to waiting protestors to be inaugurated to a Russian population yearning for FREEDOM and DEMOCRACY as they bend the knee to Brussels and DC, denuclearizing and surrendering as they BEG for McDonalds to return? Brussels, you do this schtick better, feel free to jump in.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49366503)



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Date: October 22nd, 2025 2:59 PM
Author: submissive gunner

you must be the dumbest russiacuck on the board. congrats

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49366553)



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Date: October 22nd, 2025 3:10 PM
Author: Diverse tan den potus

LMAO, or maybe they'll be inspired by Zelensky and ask him to be their president. What do you think?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49366578)



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Date: October 22nd, 2025 4:47 PM
Author: honey-headed church genital piercing

i don't think anything changes in their approach to Ukraine.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49366855)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2025 10:59 PM
Author: Diverse tan den potus



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49367578)



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Date: October 22nd, 2025 5:44 PM
Author: Turquoise Station Crotch

I can't remember a single rational person ever saying that Putin had cancer or would die any time soon. Meanwhile, I think we all remember the thread where TBF boldly predicted that Kyiv would fall with 48 hours. Yet Russiacucks are the ones who want to pound their chests about incorrect predictions about the war.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49366978)



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Date: October 22nd, 2025 5:50 PM
Author: submissive gunner



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49366987)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 22nd, 2025 10:18 PM
Author: Useless spot



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49367500)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 3:52 PM
Author: Titillating pale hell

To be fair,

LMAO yeah good point... except for the solid ~6 months that the MSM spent actively pushing that retarded conspiracy theory which turned out to be total bullshit, a period which we all remember very well and still laugh about. Feel free to Google that btw, don't take my word for it -- here are two quick links to returns from the first page which I just pulled up in under 10 seconds:

NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/us/politics/leaked-documents-putin-health.html

NY POST: https://nypost.com/web-stories/putin-battling-cancer-and-parkinsons-disease-leaked-emails-claim/

BTW, speaking of "links," do you actually have a link to me ever predicting at any point that "Kyiv would fall in 48 hours"? I'll email you my XO username / password and you can permanently retire me forever if you produce that link. FWIW, I've never seen it myself.

Thanks in advance, champ!

LJL at kikes jfc

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49371932)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 3:53 PM
Author: well-lubricated cocky mental disorder hall



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49371936)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 4:07 PM
Author: shimmering forum



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49371982)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 4:10 PM
Author: Diverse tan den potus



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49371988)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 5:52 PM
Author: Turquoise Station Crotch

Did you even read the fucking NYT article about Putin's supposed cancer? I thought this quote summed it up nicely: "No evidence has emerged to substantiate the claim, or many earlier ones, and the leaked document gives no indication that the United States finds it credible."

Meanwhile, I can't find the original thread, and search stopped working for me while I was looking for it. But I did find a couple threads referring to your prediction that were created shortly after the war started. Weird that everyone seems to be hallucinating the same prediction. It's sort of like how you also don't remember telling us that all of our money in ftx.us was safe.

https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5083984&mc=6&forum_id=2

https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5054105&mc=3&forum_id=2

https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5075967&mc=4&forum_id=2

https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5138800&mc=2&forum_id=2

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49372373)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 4:09 PM
Author: swollen glittery corner bbw

Six Ukrainians die for every Russian.

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1981330480977907896

For that matter I haven't seen footage of a single Russian being killed in months. I don't think they even have 100 KIA this year.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49371987)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 4:11 PM
Author: Diverse tan den potus

It increased to about 40:1 recently. It is 6:1 if you include the early period which had a roughly 1:1 exchange rate.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49371993)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 4:39 PM
Author: shimmering forum

lol Russiacucks. Ukraine is advancing

https://x.com/creamy_caprice/status/1981794660218720640

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49372115)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 7:29 PM
Author: shimmering forum

Russian elite units are refusing to enter battle and disobeying orders

https://x.com/H4nsSprungfeld/status/1981849901106643045

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49372681)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 7:32 PM
Author: shaky indian lodge

Seems likely Povrovsk will fall, but if that's Russia's only prize for this year's offensives then it's seriously underperforming.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49372688)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 9:34 PM
Author: well-lubricated cocky mental disorder hall

the prize is hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49373040)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 9:40 PM
Author: swollen glittery corner bbw

I think everyone agrees with that. Even Ukrainians are saying it's "suicidal" to defend it. That's why they're disobeying orders, I guess?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49373046)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 26th, 2025 1:12 AM
Author: .,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,.,.,:::,...,:,...:..:.,:.::,.


Kupiyansk is also in the final stages of collapse. Several other key cities are also likely to fall by EOY.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49375277)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 24th, 2025 9:38 PM
Author: swollen glittery corner bbw

Demoralization

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49373045)



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Date: October 24th, 2025 10:41 PM
Author: swollen glittery corner bbw

Do we have any proof of Russian casualties in October 2025? I figured there'd be at least a dozen new snuff videos by now but I can't find 'em

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5787431&forum_id=2\u0026show=my#49373122)