The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| racy frozen partner | 12/10/15 |
| soggy titillating crotch | 12/12/15 |
| racy frozen partner | 01/02/17 |
| dull property mad cow disease | 01/06/16 |
| histrionic police squad | 01/06/16 |
| histrionic police squad | 06/05/16 |
| Cracking drab goal in life | 03/26/16 |
| kink-friendly casino boltzmann | 01/02/17 |
| Bespoke Godawful University | 10/25/18 |
| Olive duck-like kitty cat kitchen | 12/10/15 |
| beady-eyed corn cake | 12/10/15 |
| Appetizing spruce school | 12/10/15 |
| very tactful lilac church building personal credit line | 12/10/15 |
| painfully honest bateful national security agency | 12/15/15 |
| carnelian mother | 12/10/15 |
| adulterous cerebral stain menage | 12/10/15 |
| White brunch | 12/10/15 |
| Charismatic zippy mexican | 12/11/15 |
| coiffed fighting reading party heaven | 12/12/15 |
| red depressive | 12/16/15 |
| Shaky milk field | 01/04/16 |
| Bull Headed Multi-colored Market | 11/09/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 12/11/15 |
| Laughsome crimson messiness voyeur | 12/11/15 |
| puce low-t forum half-breed | 12/11/15 |
| Charismatic zippy mexican | 12/11/15 |
| Salmon ceo | 12/12/15 |
| Lascivious masturbator | 01/25/16 |
| Ivory abode sweet tailpipe | 11/10/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 12/12/15 |
| Greedy thriller wrinkle | 12/12/15 |
| Hyperventilating newt | 12/12/15 |
| vivacious preventive strike locus | 12/12/15 |
| Impressive really tough guy | 12/15/15 |
| talented legal warrant | 12/21/15 |
| Violent twinkling uncleanness | 12/12/15 |
| Underhanded Electric Furnace | 12/12/15 |
| big erotic athletic conference | 12/12/15 |
| lake offensive tanning salon | 12/12/15 |
| Bearded Hyperactive Cruise Ship | 12/12/15 |
| Orange stead | 12/12/15 |
| adulterous cerebral stain menage | 12/15/15 |
| adulterous cerebral stain menage | 12/16/15 |
| Flatulent rebellious sandwich | 12/15/15 |
| flirting laser beams | 12/15/15 |
| Seedy amber temple | 12/15/15 |
| cerise naked persian chad | 12/15/15 |
| boyish copper dingle berry faggot firefighter | 12/15/15 |
| dun plaza feces | 12/15/15 |
| racy frozen partner | 12/15/15 |
| racy frozen partner | 12/15/15 |
| racy frozen partner | 12/15/15 |
| racy frozen partner | 12/15/15 |
| racy frozen partner | 12/15/15 |
| Indecent fragrant round eye | 01/05/16 |
| Lascivious masturbator | 01/25/16 |
| indigo scourge upon the earth | 12/17/16 |
| Concupiscible purple roast beef | 05/18/16 |
| Chartreuse doobsian parlor halford | 08/12/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 11/09/16 |
| wonderful lay | 11/09/16 |
| beta glittery senate | 11/09/16 |
| Coral 180 Sanctuary Keepsake Machete | 10/22/20 |
| twisted shrine lettuce | 12/15/15 |
| silver striped hyena | 12/16/15 |
| curious pistol | 12/16/15 |
| Cordovan exhilarant hospital mediation | 12/16/15 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 12/16/15 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 12/17/15 |
| well-lubricated site trust fund | 12/18/15 |
| dull property mad cow disease | 01/06/16 |
| lemon candlestick maker sex offender | 12/18/15 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 12/21/15 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 12/21/15 |
| talented legal warrant | 12/21/15 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 12/30/15 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 12/30/15 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 01/04/16 |
| Shaky milk field | 01/04/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 01/05/16 |
| Lascivious masturbator | 01/25/16 |
| well-lubricated site trust fund | 01/05/16 |
| territorial den | 01/05/16 |
| rough-skinned native kitty | 01/05/16 |
| sable comical international law enforcement agency gas station | 01/05/16 |
| Slimy talking dopamine | 01/05/16 |
| sable comical international law enforcement agency gas station | 01/05/16 |
| dull property mad cow disease | 01/06/16 |
| sable comical international law enforcement agency gas station | 01/06/16 |
| Slimy talking dopamine | 01/05/16 |
| Chartreuse doobsian parlor halford | 01/06/16 |
| talented legal warrant | 01/07/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 01/08/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 01/08/16 |
| talented legal warrant | 01/08/16 |
| well-lubricated site trust fund | 01/09/16 |
| talented legal warrant | 01/10/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 01/18/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 01/19/16 |
| well-lubricated site trust fund | 01/21/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 01/25/16 |
| Fantasy-prone antidepressant drug | 01/25/16 |
| Lascivious masturbator | 01/25/16 |
| Fantasy-prone antidepressant drug | 02/09/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 09/06/16 |
| dull property mad cow disease | 11/05/18 |
| Wild contagious blood rage | 01/29/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 02/01/16 |
| Saffron aphrodisiac dilemma | 02/01/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 02/01/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 02/07/16 |
| territorial den | 02/09/16 |
| violet crackhouse | 02/09/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 02/20/16 |
| motley address brethren | 02/20/16 |
| Concupiscible purple roast beef | 02/24/16 |
| Gay whorehouse | 02/24/16 |
| Mildly autistic irate theater associate | 02/27/16 |
| Flatulent rebellious sandwich | 03/09/16 |
| Mentally impaired alcoholic public bath | 03/15/16 |
| Appetizing spruce school | 03/15/16 |
| flirting laser beams | 03/16/16 |
| Flickering garrison | 02/24/16 |
| shimmering piazza | 02/24/16 |
| flirting laser beams | 07/21/16 |
| Brilliant stag film | 02/24/16 |
| Appetizing spruce school | 02/27/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/02/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/04/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/09/16 |
| territorial den | 03/09/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/15/16 |
| Concupiscible purple roast beef | 03/15/16 |
| startled puppy | 03/15/16 |
| Trip Resort | 03/15/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/16/16 |
| adulterous cerebral stain menage | 03/16/16 |
| wonderful lay | 03/23/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/23/16 |
| big erotic athletic conference | 03/26/16 |
| disturbing confused wagecucks rehab | 03/26/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/26/16 |
| Indecent fragrant round eye | 03/28/16 |
| wonderful lay | 03/28/16 |
| beady-eyed corn cake | 03/28/16 |
| Chartreuse doobsian parlor halford | 08/12/16 |
| dull property mad cow disease | 11/05/18 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/28/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/29/16 |
| Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor | 03/29/16 |
| Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor | 03/29/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/29/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/29/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 04/01/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 04/04/16 |
| Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor | 04/15/16 |
| sinister vigorous meetinghouse giraffe | 04/15/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 04/19/16 |
| charcoal unhinged hunting ground philosopher-king | 04/20/16 |
| rusted pea-brained area | 04/20/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 04/24/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 04/25/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 04/26/16 |
| anal quadroon | 04/26/16 |
| aggressive gaming laptop jap | 04/30/16 |
| bossy plum chapel | 05/01/16 |
| bossy plum chapel | 11/07/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 05/02/16 |
| wonderful lay | 05/02/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 05/03/16 |
| Nudist Cumskin Mental Disorder | 05/03/16 |
| High-end library | 05/03/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 05/04/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 05/04/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 05/05/16 |
| lake offensive tanning salon | 05/05/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 05/05/16 |
| shimmering piazza | 05/05/16 |
| Greedy thriller wrinkle | 05/18/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 05/18/16 |
| Concupiscible purple roast beef | 05/18/16 |
| Greedy thriller wrinkle | 05/18/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 05/29/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 06/20/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 06/29/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 07/14/16 |
| Insane cocky station | 07/15/16 |
| Chartreuse doobsian parlor halford | 07/15/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 07/17/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 07/17/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 07/21/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 07/22/16 |
| amethyst friendly grandma | 07/22/16 |
| wine infuriating affirmative action codepig | 07/23/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 07/24/16 |
| Onyx orchestra pit water buffalo | 07/25/16 |
| Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor | 07/25/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 07/27/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 08/05/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 08/09/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 08/12/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 08/12/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 08/12/16 |
| Jade razzmatazz trailer park | 08/12/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 08/30/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 08/30/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 09/06/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 09/13/16 |
| Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor | 09/14/16 |
| Violent twinkling uncleanness | 09/14/16 |
| Gold box office psychic | 09/15/16 |
| Rambunctious national multi-billionaire | 09/15/16 |
| histrionic police squad | 09/15/16 |
| vibrant federal bawdyhouse clown | 09/15/16 |
| startling school cafeteria organic girlfriend | 09/15/16 |
| free-loading people who are hurt | 09/19/16 |
| free-loading people who are hurt | 09/19/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 09/27/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 09/24/16 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 09/27/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 09/27/16 |
| adulterous cerebral stain menage | 09/27/16 |
| know-it-all hominid | 10/08/16 |
| Razzle business firm | 07/29/24 |
| Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor | 09/28/16 |
| Violent twinkling uncleanness | 09/28/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 09/28/16 |
| rusted pea-brained area | 09/28/16 |
| sinister vigorous meetinghouse giraffe | 09/28/16 |
| Cobalt locale | 10/08/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 10/09/16 |
| Claret church gunner | 10/09/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 10/09/16 |
| pink principal's office | 10/09/16 |
| Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor | 10/10/16 |
| Onyx orchestra pit water buffalo | 10/30/16 |
| Chartreuse doobsian parlor halford | 11/01/16 |
| vibrant federal bawdyhouse clown | 11/01/16 |
| marvelous mustard corner famous landscape painting | 11/02/16 |
| cerise naked persian chad | 11/02/16 |
| Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor | 11/07/16 |
| alcoholic house | 11/08/16 |
| Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor | 11/08/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 11/08/16 |
| Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor | 11/08/16 |
| Fuchsia shivering therapy | 11/08/16 |
| honey-headed parlour | 11/08/16 |
| Saffron aphrodisiac dilemma | 11/08/16 |
| free-loading people who are hurt | 11/08/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 11/08/16 |
| razzle-dazzle state becky | 11/09/16 |
| Gold box office psychic | 11/09/16 |
| Aromatic iridescent base | 11/09/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 11/09/16 |
| vibrant federal bawdyhouse clown | 11/09/16 |
| razzle-dazzle state becky | 11/09/16 |
| Onyx orchestra pit water buffalo | 11/09/16 |
| lake offensive tanning salon | 11/09/16 |
| misanthropic smoky faggotry marketing idea | 12/03/16 |
| Ivory abode sweet tailpipe | 12/07/16 |
| indigo scourge upon the earth | 12/17/16 |
| Provocative tattoo | 10/11/24 |
| Arousing self-centered private investor | 11/09/16 |
| ruby bonkers center | 11/09/16 |
| Pale thirsty theatre | 11/09/16 |
| Translucent excitant step-uncle's house | 11/09/16 |
| misanthropic smoky faggotry marketing idea | 11/09/16 |
| Chartreuse doobsian parlor halford | 11/09/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 11/09/16 |
| Greedy thriller wrinkle | 11/09/16 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 11/09/16 |
| Azure irradiated indian lodge idea he suggested | 11/09/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 11/09/16 |
| Geriatric foreskin set | 11/09/16 |
| Citrine Office Shitlib | 11/09/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 11/09/16 |
| very tactful lilac church building personal credit line | 11/09/16 |
| lemon candlestick maker sex offender | 11/10/16 |
| Fantasy-prone antidepressant drug | 11/10/16 |
| histrionic police squad | 11/10/16 |
| hateful boiling water space | 11/10/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 11/10/16 |
| Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor | 11/10/16 |
| motley address brethren | 11/10/16 |
| free-loading people who are hurt | 11/14/16 |
| sickened circlehead nursing home | 11/14/16 |
| cowardly electric gaping hall | 12/04/16 |
| indigo scourge upon the earth | 12/17/16 |
| Provocative tattoo | 10/11/24 |
| racy frozen partner | 11/25/16 |
| sick flesh coffee pot potus | 12/03/16 |
| pink principal's office | 12/04/16 |
| zombie-like headpube home | 12/07/16 |
| histrionic police squad | 12/07/16 |
| sick flesh coffee pot potus | 12/07/16 |
| racy frozen partner | 01/02/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 01/02/17 |
| racy frozen partner | 01/02/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 01/02/17 |
| racy frozen partner | 03/03/20 |
| histrionic police squad | 01/02/17 |
| wonderful lay | 01/16/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 01/20/17 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 01/20/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 01/23/17 |
| Cobalt locale | 01/23/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 01/23/17 |
| burgundy supple queen of the night | 01/23/17 |
| Cobalt locale | 01/23/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 01/23/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 01/25/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 01/26/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 02/06/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 02/13/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 02/27/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 05/03/17 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 05/03/17 |
| Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage | 09/21/17 |
| Appetizing spruce school | 01/23/17 |
| vibrant federal bawdyhouse clown | 02/27/17 |
| dull property mad cow disease | 03/22/17 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 04/17/17 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 05/08/17 |
| racy frozen partner | 06/20/17 |
| racy frozen partner | 08/10/17 |
| racy frozen partner | 10/15/17 |
| wonderful lay | 10/15/17 |
| Carmine institution | 10/15/17 |
| racy frozen partner | 11/06/17 |
| twinkling gaped son of senegal | 11/06/17 |
| Rose Exciting Nibblets Filthpig | 11/08/17 |
| dashing fluffy coldplay fan degenerate | 11/08/17 |
| bronze black woman | 11/13/17 |
| wonderful lay | 12/18/17 |
| odious sexy sneaky criminal | 12/18/17 |
| wonderful lay | 12/18/17 |
| racy frozen partner | 01/30/18 |
| histrionic police squad | 06/01/18 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 07/18/18 |
| wonderful lay | 07/19/18 |
| startling school cafeteria organic girlfriend | 09/20/18 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 09/25/18 |
| beady-eyed corn cake | 10/06/18 |
| racy frozen partner | 10/06/18 |
| histrionic police squad | 10/25/18 |
| Rambunctious national multi-billionaire | 10/25/18 |
| Lascivious masturbator | 11/05/18 |
| histrionic police squad | 11/05/18 |
| dull property mad cow disease | 11/05/18 |
| histrionic police squad | 11/05/18 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 01/08/19 |
| buff diverse stage | 02/23/19 |
| racy frozen partner | 03/13/19 |
| Lascivious masturbator | 06/24/19 |
| green point | 06/24/19 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 11/18/19 |
| vibrant federal bawdyhouse clown | 02/12/20 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 02/12/20 |
| racy frozen partner | 03/24/20 |
| Misunderstood crawly boistinker location | 03/24/20 |
| Insane cocky station | 04/04/20 |
| racy frozen partner | 04/26/20 |
| racy frozen partner | 05/13/20 |
| Insane cocky station | 06/05/20 |
| Stirring chest-beating indirect expression | 06/05/20 |
| Insane cocky station | 09/09/20 |
| vibrant federal bawdyhouse clown | 09/09/20 |
| Olive duck-like kitty cat kitchen | 09/09/20 |
| Floppy spot | 09/12/20 |
| Chestnut hell selfie | 09/24/20 |
| green point | 10/09/20 |
| wonderful lay | 10/10/20 |
| hilarious lodge | 10/22/20 |
| misanthropic smoky faggotry marketing idea | 10/22/20 |
| Coral 180 Sanctuary Keepsake Machete | 10/22/20 |
| Coral 180 Sanctuary Keepsake Machete | 10/22/20 |
| Outnumbered Ticket Booth Deer Antler | 03/23/22 |
| racy frozen partner | 10/27/20 |
| dull property mad cow disease | 10/27/20 |
| green point | 10/30/20 |
| wonderful lay | 11/03/20 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/22/22 |
| Adventurous nubile pit immigrant | 03/23/22 |
| vermilion spectacular fat ankles stage | 03/23/22 |
| disrespectful | 03/23/22 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 07/25/22 |
| Olive duck-like kitty cat kitchen | 07/25/22 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 10/23/22 |
| racy frozen partner | 11/16/22 |
| racy frozen partner | 04/25/23 |
| Greedy thriller wrinkle | 04/25/23 |
| Chestnut hell selfie | 04/29/23 |
| Razzle business firm | 05/28/23 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 02/22/24 |
| Chestnut hell selfie | 02/23/24 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 05/23/24 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 08/26/24 |
| Chestnut hell selfie | 09/13/24 |
| Olive duck-like kitty cat kitchen | 09/13/24 |
| Chestnut hell selfie | 10/18/24 |
| Provocative tattoo | 10/11/24 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 11/06/24 |
| lake offensive tanning salon | 03/04/25 |
| lake offensive tanning salon | 03/04/25 |
| startling school cafeteria organic girlfriend | 03/04/25 |
| Provocative tattoo | 03/04/25 |
| Costumed karate | 03/04/25 |
| massive background story | 03/05/25 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/07/25 |
| Nofapping nowag | 03/07/25 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/08/25 |
| Stimulating Aquamarine Dysfunction | 03/08/25 |
| bipolar bistre range trump supporter | 03/08/25 |
| incel adams | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: racy frozen partner December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: soggy titillating crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: dull property mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: histrionic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: histrionic police squad another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Cracking drab goal in life 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: kink-friendly casino boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Bespoke Godawful University "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Olive duck-like kitty cat kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: beady-eyed corn cake 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Appetizing spruce school 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: very tactful lilac church building personal credit line Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: painfully honest bateful national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: carnelian mother FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: adulterous cerebral stain menage Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: White brunch Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Charismatic zippy mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: coiffed fighting reading party heaven Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: red depressive Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Shaky milk field Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Bull Headed Multi-colored Market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Laughsome crimson messiness voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: puce low-t forum half-breed 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Charismatic zippy mexican November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Salmon ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Lascivious masturbator Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Ivory abode sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Greedy thriller wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Hyperventilating newt lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: vivacious preventive strike locus March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Impressive really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: talented legal warrant 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Violent twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Underhanded Electric Furnace lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: big erotic athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: lake offensive tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Bearded Hyperactive Cruise Ship Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Orange stead Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: adulterous cerebral stain menage OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: adulterous cerebral stain menage And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Flatulent rebellious sandwich 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: flirting laser beams fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Seedy amber temple I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: cerise naked persian chad 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: boyish copper dingle berry faggot firefighter February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: dun plaza feces You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: racy frozen partner Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: racy frozen partner http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: racy frozen partner http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: racy frozen partner http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: racy frozen partner http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Indecent fragrant round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Lascivious masturbator Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: indigo scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Concupiscible purple roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Chartreuse doobsian parlor halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: racy frozen partner http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: wonderful lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: beta glittery senate Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Coral 180 Sanctuary Keepsake Machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: twisted shrine lettuce This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: silver striped hyena 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: curious pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Cordovan exhilarant hospital mediation Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: well-lubricated site trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: dull property mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: lemon candlestick maker sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: talented legal warrant 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Shaky milk field flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: racy frozen partner ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Lascivious masturbator Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: well-lubricated site trust fund From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: territorial den 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: rough-skinned native kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: sable comical international law enforcement agency gas station An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Slimy talking dopamine 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: sable comical international law enforcement agency gas station I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: dull property mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: sable comical international law enforcement agency gas station Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Slimy talking dopamine No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Chartreuse doobsian parlor halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: talented legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: talented legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: well-lubricated site trust fund http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: talented legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: well-lubricated site trust fund looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Fantasy-prone antidepressant drug 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Lascivious masturbator You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Fantasy-prone antidepressant drug No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: dull property mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Wild contagious blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: Saffron aphrodisiac dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: territorial den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: violet crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: motley address brethren OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Concupiscible purple roast beef PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: Gay whorehouse The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: Mildly autistic irate theater associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: Flatulent rebellious sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Mentally impaired alcoholic public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: Appetizing spruce school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: flirting laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: Flickering garrison hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: shimmering piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: flirting laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Brilliant stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Appetizing spruce school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: territorial den yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Concupiscible purple roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: startled puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: Trip Resort truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: adulterous cerebral stain menage March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: wonderful lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: big erotic athletic conference http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: disturbing confused wagecucks rehab Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Indecent fragrant round eye jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: wonderful lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: beady-eyed corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Chartreuse doobsian parlor halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: dull property mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: sinister vigorous meetinghouse giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: charcoal unhinged hunting ground philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: rusted pea-brained area I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: anal quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: aggressive gaming laptop jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: bossy plum chapel Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: bossy plum chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: wonderful lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Nudist Cumskin Mental Disorder holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: High-end library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: lake offensive tanning salon Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: racy frozen partner LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: shimmering piazza Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Greedy thriller wrinkle This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Concupiscible purple roast beef In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Greedy thriller wrinkle cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: racy frozen partner lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Insane cocky station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Chartreuse doobsian parlor halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: amethyst friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: wine infuriating affirmative action codepig Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Onyx orchestra pit water buffalo Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: racy frozen partner Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: racy frozen partner THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: racy frozen partner I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Jade razzmatazz trailer park LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: racy frozen partner THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Violent twinkling uncleanness Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Gold box office psychic September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Rambunctious national multi-billionaire September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: histrionic police squad god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: vibrant federal bawdyhouse clown XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: startling school cafeteria organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: free-loading people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: free-loading people who are hurt The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: adulterous cerebral stain menage This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: know-it-all hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Razzle business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Violent twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: rusted pea-brained area This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: sinister vigorous meetinghouse giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Cobalt locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Claret church gunner Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: pink principal's office half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Onyx orchestra pit water buffalo close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Chartreuse doobsian parlor halford Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: vibrant federal bawdyhouse clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: marvelous mustard corner famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: cerise naked persian chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: alcoholic house You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: racy frozen partner ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Fuchsia shivering therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: honey-headed parlour Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Saffron aphrodisiac dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: free-loading people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: razzle-dazzle state becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Gold box office psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Aromatic iridescent base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: vibrant federal bawdyhouse clown GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: razzle-dazzle state becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Onyx orchestra pit water buffalo it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: lake offensive tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: misanthropic smoky faggotry marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Ivory abode sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: indigo scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Provocative tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Arousing self-centered private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: ruby bonkers center Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Pale thirsty theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Translucent excitant step-uncle's house 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: misanthropic smoky faggotry marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Chartreuse doobsian parlor halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Greedy thriller wrinkle this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Azure irradiated indian lodge idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Geriatric foreskin set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Citrine Office Shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: racy frozen partner November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: very tactful lilac church building personal credit line you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: lemon candlestick maker sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Fantasy-prone antidepressant drug Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: histrionic police squad bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: hateful boiling water space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: racy frozen partner sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Jet Heady Fortuitous Meteor ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: motley address brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: free-loading people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: sickened circlehead nursing home They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: cowardly electric gaping hall Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: indigo scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Provocative tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: sick flesh coffee pot potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: pink principal's office GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: zombie-like headpube home https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: histrionic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: sick flesh coffee pot potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: racy frozen partner ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: histrionic police squad truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: wonderful lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Cobalt locale TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: burgundy supple queen of the night I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Cobalt locale it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Swashbuckling dark cuckold theater stage https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Appetizing spruce school this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: vibrant federal bawdyhouse clown One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: dull property mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: racy frozen partner What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: racy frozen partner https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: wonderful lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Carmine institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: twinkling gaped son of senegal credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Rose Exciting Nibblets Filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: dashing fluffy coldplay fan degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: bronze black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: wonderful lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: odious sexy sneaky criminal Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: wonderful lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: histrionic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: wonderful lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: startling school cafeteria organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: beady-eyed corn cake It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: racy frozen partner lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: histrionic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Rambunctious national multi-billionaire Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Lascivious masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: histrionic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: dull property mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: histrionic police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: buff diverse stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: racy frozen partner Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Lascivious masturbator There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: green point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: vibrant federal bawdyhouse clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Misunderstood crawly boistinker location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Insane cocky station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: racy frozen partner https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Insane cocky station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Stirring chest-beating indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Insane cocky station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: vibrant federal bawdyhouse clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Olive duck-like kitty cat kitchen Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Floppy spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Chestnut hell selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: green point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: wonderful lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: hilarious lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: misanthropic smoky faggotry marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Coral 180 Sanctuary Keepsake Machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Coral 180 Sanctuary Keepsake Machete https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Outnumbered Ticket Booth Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: racy frozen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: dull property mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: green point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: wonderful lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Adventurous nubile pit immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: vermilion spectacular fat ankles stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: disrespectful 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Olive duck-like kitty cat kitchen A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: racy frozen partner Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: racy frozen partner https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Greedy thriller wrinkle why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Chestnut hell selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Razzle business firm FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Chestnut hell selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Chestnut hell selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Olive duck-like kitty cat kitchen One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Chestnut hell selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Provocative tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: lake offensive tanning salon 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: lake offensive tanning salon https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: startling school cafeteria organic girlfriend Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Provocative tattoo The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Costumed karate He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: massive background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Nofapping nowag 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Stimulating Aquamarine Dysfunction Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: bipolar bistre range trump supporter Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: incel adams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=posted#49679495) |