XO WSJ: Economic crisis accelerating, expect more pain
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: January 23rd, 2024 11:29 PM Author: galvanic honey-headed roast beef
Whoops I meant Biden’s economy is absolutely humming and Americans are feeling the benefits. Cons how mad does it make you that America is thriving when you desire so badly for America to fail?
——
The Public May Soon See the Economic Light
Perceptions tend to lag behind reality. But inflation has been going down for a while
Now that the Iowa caucuses are over, the feeling that this is a presidential election year is more palpable. It’s a commonplace that economic conditions swing elections. Yet despite economic performance that can only be called spectacularly good, Americans seem down in the mouth about the economy and how President Biden is handling it.
About three months ago on these pages I asked why, and my answer concentrated on the public’s apparent yearning for lower prices, not only lower inflation. Today, without retracting anything I wrote then, I want to emphasize two other reasons: general grumpiness in the electorate and lags in perception about the economy.
Let’s review current economic conditions. The unemployment rate has been hovering near its pre-pandemic low, which was the lowest in about 50 years, for about two years. Inflation, which soared in 2022, has receded into the 2% to 3% range, depending on your choice of index and time period—putting it within shouting distance of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Net new job creation continues at a rapid pace for a labor market that is around full employment. And the Fed may be on the verge of achieving the elusive “soft landing” that many experts thought improbable a year ago. Income inequality is even shrinking, as low wages rise faster than high wages.
[…]
A fascinating new paper by Stanford’s Ryan Cummings and Neale Mahoney provides statistical evidence for what economists have long believed, and offers estimates of it. The authors estimate that the negative effect of inflation on the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has historically taken about two years to wither away. In one statistical model, if the effect of inflation on the sentiment index subtracts 10 points this year, it will subtract about 7 points next year, and less than 1 point the year after that.
If that pattern holds in 2022-24 and inflation remains low, sentiment will improve notably this year. It looks as if that’s starting to happen—right on schedule. The Consumer Sentiment Index has soared in the past two months, after being in the doldrums since 2021.
It’s a glimmer of hope. May it continue.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-public-may-soon-see-the-economic-light-on-biden-policies-2024-election-9c4ca203?mod=opinion_lead_pos5
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47323688)
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:45 AM Author: Razzmatazz bistre library becky
why haven't you ever poasted in this thread? I thought you liked discussing politics and cheerleading Biden's many economic successes?
https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5433092&mc=170&forum_id=2
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47324950) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2024 11:33 PM Author: Floppy claret kitty cat spot
To be fair,
CR
After a rough few years, the economy had turned around and was "objectively doing great" under George H.W. Bush during his last year in office. Economists generally agree about that.
That's what ultimately saved him in '92, IIRC. Voters eventually came around, they usually do.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47323702) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:31 AM Author: glittery property
(guy who just makes stuff up)
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1993/02/art1full.pdf
I also remember something about a promise to not raise taxes.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47323782) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 1:33 AM Author: Floppy claret kitty cat spot
To be fair,
You mean the additional factors of how Bush Sr. was viewed as insufficiently ideologically pure by the most hardline faction of his own party, and how a substantial plurality of his own constituents had become markedly dissatisfied with him as a result of various things he had said and various actions he had taken while in office… both of which almost certainly led to diminished voter turnout by his base?
Yeah fair point — that is one important way in which was in a totally different position than Joe Biden finds himself heading into 2024.
*blank stare*
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47323894) |
Date: January 24th, 2024 1:32 AM Author: umber naked locus
No idea why pundits think lower inflation rate is what matters.
We just had years of 6-9% inflation (that they'll admit to). Everyone has experienced firsthand that groceries are now 30-50% more expensive than a few years ago. Used cars are still unbelievably expensive. Housing affordability is at the worst level ever recorded. None of this is unwinding fast enough.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47323893) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 1:34 AM Author: Floppy claret kitty cat spot
To be fair,
Uh, Obeezy is doing “great,” champ. The voters will come around, trust me.
What are you… dumb and poor?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47323895) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:35 AM Author: Exhilarant fantasy-prone mother
no one is going to vote in November 2024 based on their memory of what inflation was in November 2022.
it just doesn't work that way
for that matter it doesn't really matter what things look like in January 2024 either. just ask George Bush I
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47324909)
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:38 AM Author: hairless private investor
Again for the millionth time, the economy is fine is you own your own home as your largest single expense is not experiencing inflation (the opposite actually).
For those who don't own a home yet, congrats inflation is back down to 3% but that home you want is still only up 100% compared to 3 years ago. hehe
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47324923) |
Date: January 24th, 2024 2:51 PM Author: Irradiated adulterous candlestick maker
Voters don’t read the WSJ.
Gas is over $3. Heating oil is $4. Natural gas is up 30%. Electricity is up about the same. You can’t eat at McDonald’s for less than $15. Interest rates for house and cars are still high. I just spent $500 at the grocery store, and I did not buy that much or much of anything fancy.
Can the deep state hold off a commercial real estate collapse until after the election. Probably. Are the numbers some version of fraud lies. Yes. For a lot of reasons.
Does any of these fraud lies numbers matter short of an ITE level collapse? No.
Talk to people who work for a living. Contractors are complaining about a lack of work. Union guys are spending a lot of time not on a job. Service industry people are being squeezed even. Everyone complains about grocery prices. Everyone, even people making so much it should not matter because they know what it means for everyone else. This is all relatively new and is not going away before November nor will people forget before November.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47325765)
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:38 PM Author: glittery property
Food at home barely rose 12/22-12/23 and fell if you remove beef. Huge drops in many categories of actual food and rising prices is in categories like frozen fruit juice. Prices in “food” overall are up mainly because restaurants and takeout are up 5+%. Food is also one of the expenses where consumers have many more tools to fight back against rising prices v eg energy and housing where they just have to eat shit.
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/price-of-food
The persisting inflation story is essentially just a housing story where boomers are sitting on SFHs because the rates are up. We will see a bizarre housing market begin later this year because rates will drop but prices won’t rise because more and more boomers (and older) will finally sell and so the supply will be rising quickly from historic lows, but the massive amount of pent up demand will not let prices fall too quickly. Rents will eventually correct but not before late 2025 or 2026.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47327043) |
Date: January 24th, 2024 7:19 PM Author: galvanic honey-headed roast beef
Well REAL Americans understand the current economic climate is crash landing (no survivors), as reflected by the precipitous decline in consumer confidence over the last month.
So try as libs might to pretend an economy with a booming stock market, full employment, wage growth, moderate inflation, and solid GDP growth is “good,” AMERICANS aren’t falling for it!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47326965) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:57 PM Author: Razzmatazz bistre library becky
continuing to print money and prolong the pandemic fearmongering well after covid was confirmed to be fraud bullshit
pointless infrastructure spending
billions to ukraine and prolonging that pointless war
forcememing bullshit "clean" energy to the point no oil co with any business sense would invest in american energy and we stop becoming energy independent as a result
allowing black rock and the chinese to buy up all our real estate to further drive up prices and make home ownership unattainable for anyone who didn't buy before 2021.
whatever the fuck they did to the chicken processing supply chain that caused literally every single place that sells chicken wings to start charging $15 minimum for an order of wings
I could keep going. not going to bother getting in with cars and forcememing "EVs" but jfc with that shit
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47348942) |
Date: January 30th, 2024 2:37 PM Author: Laughsome low-t mad-dog skullcap
this is like the tenth mainstream media article about why we should stop worrying and love the economy. but the reason for the pessimism is very simple. it's not that prices or incomes or whatever are so much worse than before, that sort of stuff is just quibbling.
the biggest issue is that the fraudvirus and consequences made americans, even the stupid ones, see that the emperor had no clothes. they saw ppp fraud and ridiculous money printing and gamestop and shiba inu until the numbers no longer seemed real. they saw incompetence and crime and breakdown of social norms everywhere. people previously were boiling frogs about it, and still held on to this idea of american exceptionalism and invincibility in their heads, even if they didn't admit it. but nobody can really fool themselves about it anymore. that's the cause for the pessimism, the faith has been lost. all the arguments about made up numbers are irrelevant.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2\u0026show=today",#47347111) |
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