The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| marvelous church building | 12/10/15 |
| Fantasy-prone coiffed ticket booth | 12/12/15 |
| marvelous church building | 01/02/17 |
| Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria | 01/06/16 |
| Ruby quadroon | 01/06/16 |
| Ruby quadroon | 06/05/16 |
| aromatic chapel | 03/26/16 |
| 180 becky | 01/02/17 |
| chestnut box office | 10/25/18 |
| mischievous naked garrison philosopher-king | 12/10/15 |
| Multi-colored range candlestick maker | 12/10/15 |
| bearded federal whorehouse antidepressant drug | 12/10/15 |
| Frum Ebony Main People Dragon | 12/10/15 |
| Yapping den cumskin | 12/15/15 |
| vivacious pistol | 12/10/15 |
| Poppy Floppy Area Juggernaut | 12/10/15 |
| offensive canary wagecucks psychic | 12/10/15 |
| Underhanded thriller cuckold | 12/11/15 |
| glittery khaki nursing home | 12/12/15 |
| onyx business firm | 12/16/15 |
| Hot Bateful Address Crotch | 01/04/16 |
| Exhilarant Wild Marketing Idea | 11/09/16 |
| marvelous church building | 12/11/15 |
| Grizzly new version | 12/11/15 |
| impertinent mind-boggling theater queen of the night | 12/11/15 |
| Underhanded thriller cuckold | 12/11/15 |
| Insanely creepy nighttime indian lodge | 12/12/15 |
| Provocative judgmental fat ankles | 01/25/16 |
| Motley self-absorbed set macaca | 11/10/16 |
| marvelous church building | 12/12/15 |
| Irradiated maize bawdyhouse | 12/12/15 |
| Claret spot persian | 12/12/15 |
| high-end hominid | 12/12/15 |
| amethyst old irish cottage stag film | 12/15/15 |
| mauve magical church | 12/21/15 |
| big godawful office goyim | 12/12/15 |
| zippy razzle-dazzle lay | 12/12/15 |
| silver aphrodisiac black woman sex offender | 12/12/15 |
| Mustard Up-to-no-good Azn | 12/12/15 |
| Pearl Flickering Space Party Of The First Part | 12/12/15 |
| supple buff institution | 12/12/15 |
| Poppy Floppy Area Juggernaut | 12/15/15 |
| Poppy Floppy Area Juggernaut | 12/16/15 |
| domesticated plaza internal respiration | 12/15/15 |
| metal flushed rehab mexican | 12/15/15 |
| Cheese-eating salmon french chef immigrant | 12/15/15 |
| insecure forum gaming laptop | 12/15/15 |
| Dun Striped Hyena Hall | 12/15/15 |
| Honey-headed stain | 12/15/15 |
| marvelous church building | 12/15/15 |
| marvelous church building | 12/15/15 |
| marvelous church building | 12/15/15 |
| marvelous church building | 12/15/15 |
| marvelous church building | 12/15/15 |
| irate scourge upon the earth | 01/05/16 |
| Provocative judgmental fat ankles | 01/25/16 |
| concupiscible school | 12/17/16 |
| spectacular swollen fortuitous meteor alpha | 05/18/16 |
| electric field hissy fit | 08/12/16 |
| marvelous church building | 11/09/16 |
| Rose pervert | 11/09/16 |
| curious jewess point | 11/09/16 |
| pink tantric library deer antler | 10/22/20 |
| Dashing site double fault | 12/15/15 |
| Adventurous Resort | 12/16/15 |
| Laughsome wine state weed whacker | 12/16/15 |
| stirring electric furnace gas station | 12/16/15 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 12/16/15 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 12/17/15 |
| hairraiser lodge wrinkle | 12/18/15 |
| Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria | 01/06/16 |
| pea-brained hateful locale elastic band | 12/18/15 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 12/21/15 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 12/21/15 |
| mauve magical church | 12/21/15 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 12/30/15 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 12/30/15 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 01/04/16 |
| Hot Bateful Address Crotch | 01/04/16 |
| marvelous church building | 01/05/16 |
| Provocative judgmental fat ankles | 01/25/16 |
| hairraiser lodge wrinkle | 01/05/16 |
| wonderful obsidian circlehead cruise ship | 01/05/16 |
| thirsty casino personal credit line | 01/05/16 |
| Emerald abode foreskin | 01/05/16 |
| Talking Pungent Pit | 01/05/16 |
| Emerald abode foreskin | 01/05/16 |
| Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria | 01/06/16 |
| Emerald abode foreskin | 01/06/16 |
| Talking Pungent Pit | 01/05/16 |
| electric field hissy fit | 01/06/16 |
| mauve magical church | 01/07/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 01/08/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 01/08/16 |
| mauve magical church | 01/08/16 |
| hairraiser lodge wrinkle | 01/09/16 |
| mauve magical church | 01/10/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 01/18/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 01/19/16 |
| hairraiser lodge wrinkle | 01/21/16 |
| marvelous church building | 01/25/16 |
| coral rigor | 01/25/16 |
| Provocative judgmental fat ankles | 01/25/16 |
| coral rigor | 02/09/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 09/06/16 |
| Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria | 11/05/18 |
| razzle rough-skinned twinkling uncleanness | 01/29/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 02/01/16 |
| Pale Locus | 02/01/16 |
| marvelous church building | 02/01/16 |
| marvelous church building | 02/07/16 |
| wonderful obsidian circlehead cruise ship | 02/09/16 |
| cerebral center | 02/09/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 02/20/16 |
| Umber messiness regret | 02/20/16 |
| spectacular swollen fortuitous meteor alpha | 02/24/16 |
| Cream vigorous sandwich | 02/24/16 |
| infuriating stead gay wizard | 02/27/16 |
| domesticated plaza internal respiration | 03/09/16 |
| crimson giraffe corn cake | 03/15/16 |
| bearded federal whorehouse antidepressant drug | 03/15/16 |
| metal flushed rehab mexican | 03/16/16 |
| Shaky shimmering mad-dog skullcap sneaky criminal | 02/24/16 |
| Brilliant senate mood | 02/24/16 |
| metal flushed rehab mexican | 07/21/16 |
| contagious home national security agency | 02/24/16 |
| bearded federal whorehouse antidepressant drug | 02/27/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/02/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/04/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/09/16 |
| wonderful obsidian circlehead cruise ship | 03/09/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/15/16 |
| spectacular swollen fortuitous meteor alpha | 03/15/16 |
| Slap-happy bistre trailer park | 03/15/16 |
| buck-toothed mental disorder famous landscape painting | 03/15/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/16/16 |
| Poppy Floppy Area Juggernaut | 03/16/16 |
| Rose pervert | 03/23/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/23/16 |
| silver aphrodisiac black woman sex offender | 03/26/16 |
| Brindle stimulating faggotry | 03/26/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/26/16 |
| irate scourge upon the earth | 03/28/16 |
| Rose pervert | 03/28/16 |
| Multi-colored range candlestick maker | 03/28/16 |
| electric field hissy fit | 08/12/16 |
| Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria | 11/05/18 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/28/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/29/16 |
| Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt | 03/29/16 |
| Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt | 03/29/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/29/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/29/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 04/01/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 04/04/16 |
| Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt | 04/15/16 |
| Soul-stirring Free-loading Son Of Senegal Pozpig | 04/15/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 04/19/16 |
| abnormal rigpig hell | 04/20/16 |
| slimy black university | 04/20/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 04/24/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 04/25/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 04/26/16 |
| twinkling comical police squad stage | 04/26/16 |
| elite ruddy corner | 04/30/16 |
| trip skinny woman | 05/01/16 |
| trip skinny woman | 11/07/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 05/02/16 |
| Rose pervert | 05/02/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 05/03/16 |
| Bat shit crazy crawly cuck | 05/03/16 |
| light stage volcanic crater | 05/03/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 05/04/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 05/04/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 05/05/16 |
| Mustard Up-to-no-good Azn | 05/05/16 |
| marvelous church building | 05/05/16 |
| Brilliant senate mood | 05/05/16 |
| Irradiated maize bawdyhouse | 05/18/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 05/18/16 |
| spectacular swollen fortuitous meteor alpha | 05/18/16 |
| Irradiated maize bawdyhouse | 05/18/16 |
| marvelous church building | 05/29/16 |
| marvelous church building | 06/20/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 06/29/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 07/14/16 |
| Milky lascivious sweet tailpipe patrolman | 07/15/16 |
| electric field hissy fit | 07/15/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 07/17/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 07/17/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 07/21/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 07/22/16 |
| Cracking brunch telephone | 07/22/16 |
| appetizing sepia pocket flask menage | 07/23/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 07/24/16 |
| doobsian histrionic nowag public bath | 07/25/16 |
| Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt | 07/25/16 |
| marvelous church building | 07/27/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 08/05/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 08/09/16 |
| marvelous church building | 08/12/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 08/12/16 |
| marvelous church building | 08/12/16 |
| Sexy Bronze Liquid Oxygen | 08/12/16 |
| marvelous church building | 08/30/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 08/30/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 09/06/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 09/13/16 |
| Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt | 09/14/16 |
| big godawful office goyim | 09/14/16 |
| Talented slate cuckoldry therapy | 09/15/16 |
| heady slippery goal in life | 09/15/16 |
| Ruby quadroon | 09/15/16 |
| swashbuckling orchestra pit | 09/15/16 |
| Yellow self-centered piazza | 09/15/16 |
| Excitant heaven incel | 09/19/16 |
| Excitant heaven incel | 09/19/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 09/27/16 |
| marvelous church building | 09/24/16 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 09/27/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 09/27/16 |
| Poppy Floppy Area Juggernaut | 09/27/16 |
| Odious Crackhouse Dysfunction | 10/08/16 |
| indigo theatre | 07/29/24 |
| Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt | 09/28/16 |
| big godawful office goyim | 09/28/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 09/28/16 |
| slimy black university | 09/28/16 |
| Soul-stirring Free-loading Son Of Senegal Pozpig | 09/28/16 |
| charismatic red hospital | 10/08/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 10/09/16 |
| Lavender Titillating Step-uncle's House | 10/09/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 10/09/16 |
| razzmatazz bearded really tough guy house | 10/09/16 |
| Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt | 10/10/16 |
| doobsian histrionic nowag public bath | 10/30/16 |
| electric field hissy fit | 11/01/16 |
| swashbuckling orchestra pit | 11/01/16 |
| vermilion water buffalo | 11/02/16 |
| insecure forum gaming laptop | 11/02/16 |
| Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt | 11/07/16 |
| clear exciting preventive strike affirmative action | 11/08/16 |
| Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt | 11/08/16 |
| marvelous church building | 11/08/16 |
| Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt | 11/08/16 |
| Medicated mediation private investor | 11/08/16 |
| Beady-eyed Very Tactful Kitty Cat | 11/08/16 |
| Pale Locus | 11/08/16 |
| Excitant heaven incel | 11/08/16 |
| marvelous church building | 11/08/16 |
| maniacal shrine indirect expression | 11/09/16 |
| Talented slate cuckoldry therapy | 11/09/16 |
| chocolate fiercely-loyal ladyboy puppy | 11/09/16 |
| marvelous church building | 11/09/16 |
| swashbuckling orchestra pit | 11/09/16 |
| maniacal shrine indirect expression | 11/09/16 |
| doobsian histrionic nowag public bath | 11/09/16 |
| Mustard Up-to-no-good Azn | 11/09/16 |
| violet temple | 12/03/16 |
| Motley self-absorbed set macaca | 12/07/16 |
| concupiscible school | 12/17/16 |
| Impressive Clown | 10/11/24 |
| Diverse Tanning Salon | 11/09/16 |
| Galvanic parlor | 11/09/16 |
| arousing demanding doctorate organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| Rusted boyish coldplay fan sanctuary | 11/09/16 |
| violet temple | 11/09/16 |
| electric field hissy fit | 11/09/16 |
| marvelous church building | 11/09/16 |
| Irradiated maize bawdyhouse | 11/09/16 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 11/09/16 |
| hairless meetinghouse | 11/09/16 |
| marvelous church building | 11/09/16 |
| racy chartreuse gunner station | 11/09/16 |
| Aqua Parlour Legend | 11/09/16 |
| marvelous church building | 11/09/16 |
| Frum Ebony Main People Dragon | 11/09/16 |
| pea-brained hateful locale elastic band | 11/10/16 |
| coral rigor | 11/10/16 |
| Ruby quadroon | 11/10/16 |
| erotic turdskin | 11/10/16 |
| marvelous church building | 11/10/16 |
| Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt | 11/10/16 |
| Umber messiness regret | 11/10/16 |
| Excitant heaven incel | 11/14/16 |
| filthy mother | 11/14/16 |
| lime native depressive | 12/04/16 |
| concupiscible school | 12/17/16 |
| Impressive Clown | 10/11/24 |
| marvelous church building | 11/25/16 |
| charcoal principal's office idiot | 12/03/16 |
| razzmatazz bearded really tough guy house | 12/04/16 |
| ivory kitchen international law enforcement agency | 12/07/16 |
| Ruby quadroon | 12/07/16 |
| charcoal principal's office idiot | 12/07/16 |
| marvelous church building | 01/02/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 01/02/17 |
| marvelous church building | 01/02/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 01/02/17 |
| marvelous church building | 03/03/20 |
| Ruby quadroon | 01/02/17 |
| Rose pervert | 01/16/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 01/20/17 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 01/20/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 01/23/17 |
| charismatic red hospital | 01/23/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 01/23/17 |
| jade location | 01/23/17 |
| charismatic red hospital | 01/23/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 01/23/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 01/25/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 01/26/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 02/06/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 02/13/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 02/27/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 05/03/17 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 05/03/17 |
| hyperventilating people who are hurt base | 09/21/17 |
| bearded federal whorehouse antidepressant drug | 01/23/17 |
| swashbuckling orchestra pit | 02/27/17 |
| Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria | 03/22/17 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 04/17/17 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 05/08/17 |
| marvelous church building | 06/20/17 |
| marvelous church building | 08/10/17 |
| marvelous church building | 10/15/17 |
| Rose pervert | 10/15/17 |
| market | 10/15/17 |
| marvelous church building | 11/06/17 |
| Translucent hilarious national ceo | 11/06/17 |
| Puce degenerate | 11/08/17 |
| carmine theater stage | 11/08/17 |
| mahogany property | 11/13/17 |
| Rose pervert | 12/18/17 |
| pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button | 12/18/17 |
| Rose pervert | 12/18/17 |
| marvelous church building | 01/30/18 |
| Ruby quadroon | 06/01/18 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 07/18/18 |
| Rose pervert | 07/19/18 |
| Yellow self-centered piazza | 09/20/18 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 09/25/18 |
| Multi-colored range candlestick maker | 10/06/18 |
| marvelous church building | 10/06/18 |
| Ruby quadroon | 10/25/18 |
| heady slippery goal in life | 10/25/18 |
| Provocative judgmental fat ankles | 11/05/18 |
| Ruby quadroon | 11/05/18 |
| Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria | 11/05/18 |
| Ruby quadroon | 11/05/18 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 01/08/19 |
| Arrogant Blue | 02/23/19 |
| marvelous church building | 03/13/19 |
| Provocative judgmental fat ankles | 06/24/19 |
| turquoise | 06/24/19 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 11/18/19 |
| swashbuckling orchestra pit | 02/12/20 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 02/12/20 |
| marvelous church building | 03/24/20 |
| trump supporter | 03/24/20 |
| Milky lascivious sweet tailpipe patrolman | 04/04/20 |
| marvelous church building | 04/26/20 |
| marvelous church building | 05/13/20 |
| Milky lascivious sweet tailpipe patrolman | 06/05/20 |
| Bat-shit-crazy roommate | 06/05/20 |
| Milky lascivious sweet tailpipe patrolman | 09/09/20 |
| swashbuckling orchestra pit | 09/09/20 |
| mischievous naked garrison philosopher-king | 09/09/20 |
| 09/12/20 |
| cruel-hearted | 09/24/20 |
| turquoise | 10/09/20 |
| Rose pervert | 10/10/20 |
| Dull | 10/22/20 |
| violet temple | 10/22/20 |
| pink tantric library deer antler | 10/22/20 |
| pink tantric library deer antler | 10/22/20 |
| big-titted | 03/23/22 |
| marvelous church building | 10/27/20 |
| Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria | 10/27/20 |
| turquoise | 10/30/20 |
| Rose pervert | 11/03/20 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/22/22 |
| Fighting Keepsake Machete | 03/23/22 |
| Blathering death wish | 03/23/22 |
| Purple | 03/23/22 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 07/25/22 |
| mischievous naked garrison philosopher-king | 07/25/22 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 10/23/22 |
| marvelous church building | 11/16/22 |
| marvelous church building | 04/25/23 |
| Irradiated maize bawdyhouse | 04/25/23 |
| cruel-hearted | 04/29/23 |
| indigo theatre | 05/28/23 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 02/22/24 |
| cruel-hearted | 02/23/24 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 05/23/24 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 08/26/24 |
| cruel-hearted | 09/13/24 |
| mischievous naked garrison philosopher-king | 09/13/24 |
| cruel-hearted | 10/18/24 |
| Impressive Clown | 10/11/24 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 11/06/24 |
| Mustard Up-to-no-good Azn | 03/04/25 |
| Mustard Up-to-no-good Azn | 03/04/25 |
| Yellow self-centered piazza | 03/04/25 |
| Impressive Clown | 03/04/25 |
| friendly grandma | 03/04/25 |
| Feces | 03/05/25 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/07/25 |
| idea he suggested | 03/07/25 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/08/25 |
| Well-lubricated travel guidebook | 03/08/25 |
| Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma | 03/08/25 |
| goy orbison | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: marvelous church building December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Fantasy-prone coiffed ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Ruby quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Ruby quadroon another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: aromatic chapel 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: 180 becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: chestnut box office "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: mischievous naked garrison philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Multi-colored range candlestick maker 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: bearded federal whorehouse antidepressant drug 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Frum Ebony Main People Dragon Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Yapping den cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: vivacious pistol FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Poppy Floppy Area Juggernaut Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: offensive canary wagecucks psychic Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Underhanded thriller cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: glittery khaki nursing home Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: onyx business firm Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Hot Bateful Address Crotch Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Exhilarant Wild Marketing Idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Grizzly new version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: impertinent mind-boggling theater queen of the night 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Underhanded thriller cuckold November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Insanely creepy nighttime indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Provocative judgmental fat ankles Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Motley self-absorbed set macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Irradiated maize bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Claret spot persian lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: high-end hominid March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: amethyst old irish cottage stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: mauve magical church 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: big godawful office goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: zippy razzle-dazzle lay lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: silver aphrodisiac black woman sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Mustard Up-to-no-good Azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Pearl Flickering Space Party Of The First Part Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: supple buff institution Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Poppy Floppy Area Juggernaut OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Poppy Floppy Area Juggernaut And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: domesticated plaza internal respiration 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: metal flushed rehab mexican fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Cheese-eating salmon french chef immigrant I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: insecure forum gaming laptop 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Dun Striped Hyena Hall February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Honey-headed stain You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: marvelous church building Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: marvelous church building http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: marvelous church building http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: marvelous church building http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: marvelous church building http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: irate scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Provocative judgmental fat ankles Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: concupiscible school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: spectacular swollen fortuitous meteor alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: electric field hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: marvelous church building http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Rose pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: curious jewess point Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: pink tantric library deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Dashing site double fault This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Adventurous Resort 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Laughsome wine state weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: stirring electric furnace gas station Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: hairraiser lodge wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: pea-brained hateful locale elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: mauve magical church 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Hot Bateful Address Crotch flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: marvelous church building ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Provocative judgmental fat ankles Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: hairraiser lodge wrinkle From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: wonderful obsidian circlehead cruise ship 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: thirsty casino personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Emerald abode foreskin An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Talking Pungent Pit 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Emerald abode foreskin I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Emerald abode foreskin Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Talking Pungent Pit No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: electric field hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: mauve magical church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: mauve magical church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: hairraiser lodge wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: mauve magical church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: hairraiser lodge wrinkle looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: coral rigor 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Provocative judgmental fat ankles You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: coral rigor No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: razzle rough-skinned twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: Pale Locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: wonderful obsidian circlehead cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: cerebral center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Umber messiness regret OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: spectacular swollen fortuitous meteor alpha PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: Cream vigorous sandwich The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: infuriating stead gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: domesticated plaza internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: crimson giraffe corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: bearded federal whorehouse antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: metal flushed rehab mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: Shaky shimmering mad-dog skullcap sneaky criminal hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Brilliant senate mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: metal flushed rehab mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: contagious home national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: bearded federal whorehouse antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: wonderful obsidian circlehead cruise ship yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: spectacular swollen fortuitous meteor alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Slap-happy bistre trailer park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: buck-toothed mental disorder famous landscape painting truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: Poppy Floppy Area Juggernaut March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Rose pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: silver aphrodisiac black woman sex offender http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: Brindle stimulating faggotry Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: irate scourge upon the earth jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Rose pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Multi-colored range candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: electric field hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Soul-stirring Free-loading Son Of Senegal Pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: abnormal rigpig hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: slimy black university I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: twinkling comical police squad stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: elite ruddy corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: trip skinny woman Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: trip skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Rose pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Bat shit crazy crawly cuck holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: light stage volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Mustard Up-to-no-good Azn Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: marvelous church building LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Brilliant senate mood Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Irradiated maize bawdyhouse This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: spectacular swollen fortuitous meteor alpha In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Irradiated maize bawdyhouse cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: marvelous church building lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Milky lascivious sweet tailpipe patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: electric field hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Cracking brunch telephone (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: appetizing sepia pocket flask menage Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: doobsian histrionic nowag public bath Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: marvelous church building Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: marvelous church building THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: marvelous church building I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Sexy Bronze Liquid Oxygen LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: marvelous church building THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: big godawful office goyim Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Talented slate cuckoldry therapy September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: heady slippery goal in life September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Ruby quadroon god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: swashbuckling orchestra pit XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Yellow self-centered piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Excitant heaven incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Excitant heaven incel The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Poppy Floppy Area Juggernaut This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Odious Crackhouse Dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: indigo theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: big godawful office goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: slimy black university This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Soul-stirring Free-loading Son Of Senegal Pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: charismatic red hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Lavender Titillating Step-uncle's House Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: razzmatazz bearded really tough guy house half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: doobsian histrionic nowag public bath close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: electric field hissy fit Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: swashbuckling orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: vermilion water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: insecure forum gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: clear exciting preventive strike affirmative action You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: marvelous church building ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Medicated mediation private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Beady-eyed Very Tactful Kitty Cat Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Pale Locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Excitant heaven incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: maniacal shrine indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Talented slate cuckoldry therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: chocolate fiercely-loyal ladyboy puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: swashbuckling orchestra pit GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: maniacal shrine indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: doobsian histrionic nowag public bath it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Mustard Up-to-no-good Azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: violet temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Motley self-absorbed set macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: concupiscible school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Impressive Clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Diverse Tanning Salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Galvanic parlor Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: arousing demanding doctorate organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Rusted boyish coldplay fan sanctuary 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: violet temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: electric field hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Irradiated maize bawdyhouse this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: hairless meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: racy chartreuse gunner station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Aqua Parlour Legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: marvelous church building November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Frum Ebony Main People Dragon you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: pea-brained hateful locale elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: coral rigor Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Ruby quadroon bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: erotic turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: marvelous church building sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Know-it-all autistic mad cow disease newt ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Umber messiness regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Excitant heaven incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: filthy mother They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: lime native depressive Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: concupiscible school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Impressive Clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: charcoal principal's office idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: razzmatazz bearded really tough guy house GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: ivory kitchen international law enforcement agency https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Ruby quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: charcoal principal's office idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: marvelous church building ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Ruby quadroon truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Rose pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: charismatic red hospital TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: jade location I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: charismatic red hospital it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: hyperventilating people who are hurt base https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: bearded federal whorehouse antidepressant drug this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: swashbuckling orchestra pit One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: marvelous church building What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: marvelous church building https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Rose pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Translucent hilarious national ceo credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Puce degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: carmine theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: mahogany property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Rose pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: pearly vibrant love of her life factory reset button Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Rose pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Ruby quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Rose pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Yellow self-centered piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Multi-colored range candlestick maker It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: marvelous church building lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Ruby quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: heady slippery goal in life Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Provocative judgmental fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Ruby quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Ruby quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Arrogant Blue (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: marvelous church building Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Provocative judgmental fat ankles There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: turquoise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: swashbuckling orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Milky lascivious sweet tailpipe patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: marvelous church building https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Milky lascivious sweet tailpipe patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Bat-shit-crazy roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Milky lascivious sweet tailpipe patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: swashbuckling orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: mischievous naked garrison philosopher-king Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: cruel-hearted (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: turquoise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Rose pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Dull (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: violet temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: pink tantric library deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: pink tantric library deer antler https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: big-titted (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: marvelous church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Fragrant at-the-ready school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: turquoise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Rose pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Fighting Keepsake Machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Blathering death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Purple 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: mischievous naked garrison philosopher-king A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: marvelous church building Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: marvelous church building https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Irradiated maize bawdyhouse why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: cruel-hearted (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: indigo theatre FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: cruel-hearted (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: cruel-hearted (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: mischievous naked garrison philosopher-king One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: cruel-hearted (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Impressive Clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Mustard Up-to-no-good Azn 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Mustard Up-to-no-good Azn https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Yellow self-centered piazza Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Impressive Clown The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: friendly grandma He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: idea he suggested 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Well-lubricated travel guidebook Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Orchid Passionate Athletic Conference Dilemma Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: goy orbison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#49679495) |