The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 12/10/15 |
| adventurous flesh antidepressant drug | 12/12/15 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 01/02/17 |
| appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor | 01/06/16 |
| Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault | 01/06/16 |
| Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault | 06/05/16 |
| pearly wonderful field love of her life | 03/26/16 |
| Dull Telephone Really Tough Guy | 01/02/17 |
| Bright Pervert Preventive Strike | 10/25/18 |
| razzmatazz sandwich juggernaut | 12/10/15 |
| Fear-inspiring nursing home | 12/10/15 |
| boyish brass skinny woman | 12/10/15 |
| arousing ruby bawdyhouse persian | 12/10/15 |
| aromatic citrine becky | 12/15/15 |
| vigorous locus fat ankles | 12/10/15 |
| pink dog poop | 12/10/15 |
| comical iridescent parlor | 12/10/15 |
| Sexy rehab | 12/11/15 |
| dashing doctorate athletic conference | 12/12/15 |
| Maize property | 12/16/15 |
| swollen misunderstood crackhouse | 01/04/16 |
| Henna weed whacker | 11/09/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 12/11/15 |
| Cracking base pozpig | 12/11/15 |
| Pungent native genital piercing | 12/11/15 |
| Sexy rehab | 12/11/15 |
| Soul-stirring casino party of the first part | 12/12/15 |
| Lake sanctuary hominid | 01/25/16 |
| abnormal stag film giraffe | 11/10/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 12/12/15 |
| confused trip office marketing idea | 12/12/15 |
| honey-headed garrison generalized bond | 12/12/15 |
| Claret well-lubricated shitlib newt | 12/12/15 |
| Glassy Frozen Twinkling Uncleanness | 12/15/15 |
| Glittery potus boistinker | 12/21/15 |
| Mildly autistic theatre gaming laptop | 12/12/15 |
| very tactful lilac location windowlicker | 12/12/15 |
| Filthy exhilarant stock car | 12/12/15 |
| concupiscible address | 12/12/15 |
| burgundy stage personal credit line | 12/12/15 |
| Hyperactive titillating stead | 12/12/15 |
| pink dog poop | 12/15/15 |
| pink dog poop | 12/16/15 |
| motley gay wizard station | 12/15/15 |
| lascivious deer antler private investor | 12/15/15 |
| Apoplectic Spectacular Regret Community Account | 12/15/15 |
| Carnelian Know-it-all Jew National | 12/15/15 |
| Abusive lay | 12/15/15 |
| lavender slippery pit cumskin | 12/15/15 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 12/15/15 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 12/15/15 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 12/15/15 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 12/15/15 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 12/15/15 |
| Contagious chapel rigpig | 01/05/16 |
| Lake sanctuary hominid | 01/25/16 |
| Cobalt Nibblets | 12/17/16 |
| electric disrespectful space mad cow disease | 05/18/16 |
| elite floppy dilemma quadroon | 08/12/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 11/09/16 |
| Passionate Magenta Goyim | 11/09/16 |
| Massive Stirring Range Philosopher-king | 11/09/16 |
| Frisky home | 10/22/20 |
| grizzly university knife | 12/15/15 |
| stubborn selfie | 12/16/15 |
| aphrodisiac purple piazza | 12/16/15 |
| Anal market | 12/16/15 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 12/16/15 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 12/17/15 |
| supple ungodly parlour | 12/18/15 |
| appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor | 01/06/16 |
| Galvanic Saffron Senate Indirect Expression | 12/18/15 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 12/21/15 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 12/21/15 |
| Glittery potus boistinker | 12/21/15 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 12/30/15 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 12/30/15 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 01/04/16 |
| swollen misunderstood crackhouse | 01/04/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 01/05/16 |
| Lake sanctuary hominid | 01/25/16 |
| supple ungodly parlour | 01/05/16 |
| opaque stimulating national security agency | 01/05/16 |
| Excitant Flatulent Step-uncle's House Affirmative Action | 01/05/16 |
| Violent patrolman | 01/05/16 |
| Cerebral wrinkle | 01/05/16 |
| Violent patrolman | 01/05/16 |
| appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor | 01/06/16 |
| Violent patrolman | 01/06/16 |
| Cerebral wrinkle | 01/05/16 |
| elite floppy dilemma quadroon | 01/06/16 |
| Glittery potus boistinker | 01/07/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 01/08/16 |
| Hilarious point | 01/08/16 |
| Glittery potus boistinker | 01/08/16 |
| supple ungodly parlour | 01/09/16 |
| Glittery potus boistinker | 01/10/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 01/18/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 01/19/16 |
| supple ungodly parlour | 01/21/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 01/25/16 |
| drunken puppy masturbator | 01/25/16 |
| Lake sanctuary hominid | 01/25/16 |
| drunken puppy masturbator | 02/09/16 |
| Hilarious point | 09/06/16 |
| appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor | 11/05/18 |
| hairraiser dark multi-billionaire area | 01/29/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 02/01/16 |
| Cheese-eating vermilion legend partner | 02/01/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 02/01/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 02/07/16 |
| opaque stimulating national security agency | 02/09/16 |
| french keepsake machete jewess | 02/09/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 02/20/16 |
| Olive Rebellious People Who Are Hurt Elastic Band | 02/20/16 |
| electric disrespectful space mad cow disease | 02/24/16 |
| carmine business firm codepig | 02/24/16 |
| 180 deep gas station coldplay fan | 02/27/16 |
| motley gay wizard station | 03/09/16 |
| fragrant main people lodge | 03/15/16 |
| boyish brass skinny woman | 03/15/16 |
| lascivious deer antler private investor | 03/16/16 |
| Turquoise mind-boggling associate box office | 02/24/16 |
| provocative mahogany cruise ship messiness | 02/24/16 |
| lascivious deer antler private investor | 07/21/16 |
| tantric obsidian immigrant site | 02/24/16 |
| boyish brass skinny woman | 02/27/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/02/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/04/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/09/16 |
| opaque stimulating national security agency | 03/09/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/15/16 |
| electric disrespectful space mad cow disease | 03/15/16 |
| thriller foreskin son of senegal | 03/15/16 |
| Offensive greedy therapy | 03/15/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/16/16 |
| pink dog poop | 03/16/16 |
| Passionate Magenta Goyim | 03/23/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/23/16 |
| Filthy exhilarant stock car | 03/26/16 |
| bateful green den | 03/26/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/26/16 |
| Contagious chapel rigpig | 03/28/16 |
| Passionate Magenta Goyim | 03/28/16 |
| Fear-inspiring nursing home | 03/28/16 |
| elite floppy dilemma quadroon | 08/12/16 |
| appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor | 11/05/18 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/28/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/29/16 |
| smoky haunted graveyard | 03/29/16 |
| smoky haunted graveyard | 03/29/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/29/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/29/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 04/01/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 04/04/16 |
| smoky haunted graveyard | 04/15/16 |
| Red Spot | 04/15/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 04/19/16 |
| mint faggot firefighter psychic | 04/20/16 |
| Multi-colored resort | 04/20/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 04/24/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 04/25/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 04/26/16 |
| Amber Vivacious Hell Mood | 04/26/16 |
| Plum idiot | 04/30/16 |
| yellow ratface | 05/01/16 |
| yellow ratface | 11/07/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 05/02/16 |
| Passionate Magenta Goyim | 05/02/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 05/03/16 |
| disturbing dun background story | 05/03/16 |
| Zombie-like Shrine Digit Ratio | 05/03/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 05/04/16 |
| Hilarious point | 05/04/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 05/05/16 |
| concupiscible address | 05/05/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 05/05/16 |
| provocative mahogany cruise ship messiness | 05/05/16 |
| confused trip office marketing idea | 05/18/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 05/18/16 |
| electric disrespectful space mad cow disease | 05/18/16 |
| confused trip office marketing idea | 05/18/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 05/29/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 06/20/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 06/29/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 07/14/16 |
| mewling yarmulke library | 07/15/16 |
| elite floppy dilemma quadroon | 07/15/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 07/17/16 |
| Hilarious point | 07/17/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 07/21/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 07/22/16 |
| marvelous house | 07/22/16 |
| Jade dopamine | 07/23/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 07/24/16 |
| lime forum dysfunction | 07/25/16 |
| smoky haunted graveyard | 07/25/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 07/27/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 08/05/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 08/09/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 08/12/16 |
| Hilarious point | 08/12/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 08/12/16 |
| Swashbuckling electric furnace | 08/12/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 08/30/16 |
| Hilarious point | 08/30/16 |
| Hilarious point | 09/06/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 09/13/16 |
| smoky haunted graveyard | 09/14/16 |
| Mildly autistic theatre gaming laptop | 09/14/16 |
| disgusting stage circlehead | 09/15/16 |
| idiotic friendly grandma | 09/15/16 |
| Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault | 09/15/16 |
| jet-lagged internal respiration sex offender | 09/15/16 |
| insane rusted pocket flask feces | 09/15/16 |
| Odious Scourge Upon The Earth | 09/19/16 |
| Odious Scourge Upon The Earth | 09/19/16 |
| Hilarious point | 09/27/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 09/24/16 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 09/27/16 |
| Hilarious point | 09/27/16 |
| pink dog poop | 09/27/16 |
| curious pearl institution roast beef | 10/08/16 |
| cerise federal theater stage water buffalo | 07/29/24 |
| smoky haunted graveyard | 09/28/16 |
| Mildly autistic theatre gaming laptop | 09/28/16 |
| Hilarious point | 09/28/16 |
| Multi-colored resort | 09/28/16 |
| Red Spot | 09/28/16 |
| talented self-absorbed plaza | 10/08/16 |
| Hilarious point | 10/09/16 |
| High-end meetinghouse | 10/09/16 |
| Hilarious point | 10/09/16 |
| Laughsome Wild Tanning Salon | 10/09/16 |
| smoky haunted graveyard | 10/10/16 |
| lime forum dysfunction | 10/30/16 |
| elite floppy dilemma quadroon | 11/01/16 |
| jet-lagged internal respiration sex offender | 11/01/16 |
| irradiated gay famous landscape painting | 11/02/16 |
| Carnelian Know-it-all Jew National | 11/02/16 |
| smoky haunted graveyard | 11/07/16 |
| jet big ticket booth cuck | 11/08/16 |
| smoky haunted graveyard | 11/08/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 11/08/16 |
| smoky haunted graveyard | 11/08/16 |
| diverse low-t state | 11/08/16 |
| Twinkling Heady Milk | 11/08/16 |
| Cheese-eating vermilion legend partner | 11/08/16 |
| Odious Scourge Upon The Earth | 11/08/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 11/08/16 |
| Milky karate volcanic crater | 11/09/16 |
| disgusting stage circlehead | 11/09/16 |
| beady-eyed topaz brunch | 11/09/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 11/09/16 |
| jet-lagged internal respiration sex offender | 11/09/16 |
| Milky karate volcanic crater | 11/09/16 |
| lime forum dysfunction | 11/09/16 |
| concupiscible address | 11/09/16 |
| narrow-minded trump supporter | 12/03/16 |
| abnormal stag film giraffe | 12/07/16 |
| Cobalt Nibblets | 12/17/16 |
| Sick ebony dragon | 10/11/24 |
| Gaped Kitty | 11/09/16 |
| aquamarine underhanded striped hyena | 11/09/16 |
| bull headed abode | 11/09/16 |
| Primrose queen of the night locale | 11/09/16 |
| narrow-minded trump supporter | 11/09/16 |
| elite floppy dilemma quadroon | 11/09/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 11/09/16 |
| confused trip office marketing idea | 11/09/16 |
| Hilarious point | 11/09/16 |
| Out-of-control theater | 11/09/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 11/09/16 |
| unholy buff orchestra pit tattoo | 11/09/16 |
| gold up-to-no-good cuckoldry set | 11/09/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 11/09/16 |
| arousing ruby bawdyhouse persian | 11/09/16 |
| Galvanic Saffron Senate Indirect Expression | 11/10/16 |
| drunken puppy masturbator | 11/10/16 |
| Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault | 11/10/16 |
| flushed crawly tank | 11/10/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 11/10/16 |
| smoky haunted graveyard | 11/10/16 |
| Olive Rebellious People Who Are Hurt Elastic Band | 11/10/16 |
| Odious Scourge Upon The Earth | 11/14/16 |
| Racy Kitchen Roommate | 11/14/16 |
| Navy Ladyboy Useless Brakes | 12/04/16 |
| Cobalt Nibblets | 12/17/16 |
| Sick ebony dragon | 10/11/24 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 11/25/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle ceo | 12/03/16 |
| Laughsome Wild Tanning Salon | 12/04/16 |
| Cocky azure candlestick maker | 12/07/16 |
| Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault | 12/07/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle ceo | 12/07/16 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 01/02/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 01/02/17 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 01/02/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 01/02/17 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 03/03/20 |
| Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault | 01/02/17 |
| Passionate Magenta Goyim | 01/16/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 01/20/17 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 01/20/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 01/23/17 |
| talented self-absorbed plaza | 01/23/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 01/23/17 |
| coiffed bearded corner faggotry | 01/23/17 |
| talented self-absorbed plaza | 01/23/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 01/23/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 01/25/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 01/26/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 02/06/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 02/13/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 02/27/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 05/03/17 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 05/03/17 |
| Autistic haunting whorehouse | 09/21/17 |
| boyish brass skinny woman | 01/23/17 |
| jet-lagged internal respiration sex offender | 02/27/17 |
| appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor | 03/22/17 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 04/17/17 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 05/08/17 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 06/20/17 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 08/10/17 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 10/15/17 |
| Passionate Magenta Goyim | 10/15/17 |
| vibrant indian lodge nowag | 10/15/17 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 11/06/17 |
| Razzle public bath legal warrant | 11/06/17 |
| histrionic hospital | 11/08/17 |
| sapphire boiling water | 11/08/17 |
| Kink-friendly principal's office | 11/13/17 |
| Passionate Magenta Goyim | 12/18/17 |
| Hilarious point | 12/18/17 |
| Passionate Magenta Goyim | 12/18/17 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 01/30/18 |
| Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault | 06/01/18 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 07/18/18 |
| Passionate Magenta Goyim | 07/19/18 |
| insane rusted pocket flask feces | 09/20/18 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 09/25/18 |
| Fear-inspiring nursing home | 10/06/18 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 10/06/18 |
| Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault | 10/25/18 |
| idiotic friendly grandma | 10/25/18 |
| Lake sanctuary hominid | 11/05/18 |
| Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault | 11/05/18 |
| appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor | 11/05/18 |
| Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault | 11/05/18 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 01/08/19 |
| bespoke insecure trailer park rigor | 02/23/19 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 03/13/19 |
| Lake sanctuary hominid | 06/24/19 |
| Flirting school dingle berry | 06/24/19 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 11/18/19 |
| jet-lagged internal respiration sex offender | 02/12/20 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 02/12/20 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 03/24/20 |
| Poppy exciting clown chad | 03/24/20 |
| mewling yarmulke library | 04/04/20 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 04/26/20 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 05/13/20 |
| mewling yarmulke library | 06/05/20 |
| Charismatic sepia reading party | 06/05/20 |
| mewling yarmulke library | 09/09/20 |
| jet-lagged internal respiration sex offender | 09/09/20 |
| razzmatazz sandwich juggernaut | 09/09/20 |
| nubile fanboi azn | 09/12/20 |
| filthpig | 09/24/20 |
| Flirting school dingle berry | 10/09/20 |
| Passionate Magenta Goyim | 10/10/20 |
| splenetic voyeur stain | 10/22/20 |
| narrow-minded trump supporter | 10/22/20 |
| Frisky home | 10/22/20 |
| Frisky home | 10/22/20 |
| Indigo school cafeteria blood rage | 03/23/22 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 10/27/20 |
| appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor | 10/27/20 |
| Flirting school dingle berry | 10/30/20 |
| Passionate Magenta Goyim | 11/03/20 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/22/22 |
| chrome sadistic halford | 03/23/22 |
| irate alpha church building | 03/23/22 |
| mad-dog skullcap | 03/23/22 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 07/25/22 |
| razzmatazz sandwich juggernaut | 07/25/22 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 10/23/22 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 11/16/22 |
| Geriatric chocolate temple | 04/25/23 |
| confused trip office marketing idea | 04/25/23 |
| filthpig | 04/29/23 |
| cerise federal theater stage water buffalo | 05/28/23 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 02/22/24 |
| filthpig | 02/23/24 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 05/23/24 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 08/26/24 |
| filthpig | 09/13/24 |
| razzmatazz sandwich juggernaut | 09/13/24 |
| filthpig | 10/18/24 |
| Sick ebony dragon | 10/11/24 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 11/06/24 |
| concupiscible address | 03/04/25 |
| concupiscible address | 03/04/25 |
| insane rusted pocket flask feces | 03/04/25 |
| Sick ebony dragon | 03/04/25 |
| center | 03/04/25 |
| Wine Shivering Menage Gaping | 03/05/25 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/07/25 |
| costumed naked heaven brethren | 03/07/25 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/08/25 |
| Twisted church | 03/08/25 |
| Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested | 03/08/25 |
| incel adams | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: adventurous flesh antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: pearly wonderful field love of her life 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Dull Telephone Really Tough Guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Bright Pervert Preventive Strike "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: razzmatazz sandwich juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Fear-inspiring nursing home 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: boyish brass skinny woman 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: arousing ruby bawdyhouse persian Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: aromatic citrine becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: vigorous locus fat ankles FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: pink dog poop Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: comical iridescent parlor Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Sexy rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: dashing doctorate athletic conference Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Maize property Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: swollen misunderstood crackhouse Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Henna weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Cracking base pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Pungent native genital piercing 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Sexy rehab November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Soul-stirring casino party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Lake sanctuary hominid Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: abnormal stag film giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: confused trip office marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: honey-headed garrison generalized bond lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Claret well-lubricated shitlib newt March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Glassy Frozen Twinkling Uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Glittery potus boistinker 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Mildly autistic theatre gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: very tactful lilac location windowlicker lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Filthy exhilarant stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: burgundy stage personal credit line Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Hyperactive titillating stead Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: pink dog poop OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: pink dog poop And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: motley gay wizard station 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: lascivious deer antler private investor fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Apoplectic Spectacular Regret Community Account I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Carnelian Know-it-all Jew National 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Abusive lay February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: lavender slippery pit cumskin You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Contagious chapel rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Lake sanctuary hominid Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Cobalt Nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: electric disrespectful space mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: elite floppy dilemma quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Passionate Magenta Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Massive Stirring Range Philosopher-king Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Frisky home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: grizzly university knife This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: stubborn selfie 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: aphrodisiac purple piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Anal market Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: supple ungodly parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Galvanic Saffron Senate Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Glittery potus boistinker 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: swollen misunderstood crackhouse flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Lake sanctuary hominid Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: supple ungodly parlour From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: opaque stimulating national security agency 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Excitant Flatulent Step-uncle's House Affirmative Action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Violent patrolman An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Cerebral wrinkle 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Violent patrolman I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Violent patrolman Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Cerebral wrinkle No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: elite floppy dilemma quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Glittery potus boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Hilarious point 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Glittery potus boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: supple ungodly parlour http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Glittery potus boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: supple ungodly parlour looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#29677719) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30015799) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Passionate Magenta Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: smoky haunted graveyard "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: smoky haunted graveyard interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Red Spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Multi-colored resort I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30353572) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: yellow ratface Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: yellow ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Passionate Magenta Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: disturbing dun background story holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Zombie-like Shrine Digit Ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Hilarious point 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: concupiscible address Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: provocative mahogany cruise ship messiness Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: confused trip office marketing idea This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: electric disrespectful space mad cow disease In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: confused trip office marketing idea cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: mewling yarmulke library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: elite floppy dilemma quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Hilarious point 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: marvelous house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Jade dopamine Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: lime forum dysfunction Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: smoky haunted graveyard amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Hilarious point holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Swashbuckling electric furnace LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Hilarious point 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Hilarious point lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: smoky haunted graveyard ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Mildly autistic theatre gaming laptop Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: disgusting stage circlehead September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: idiotic friendly grandma September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: jet-lagged internal respiration sex offender XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: insane rusted pocket flask feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Odious Scourge Upon The Earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Odious Scourge Upon The Earth The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Hilarious point let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Hilarious point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: pink dog poop This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: curious pearl institution roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: cerise federal theater stage water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: smoky haunted graveyard http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Mildly autistic theatre gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Hilarious point 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Multi-colored resort This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Red Spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: talented self-absorbed plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Hilarious point hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: High-end meetinghouse Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Hilarious point doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Laughsome Wild Tanning Salon half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: smoky haunted graveyard nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: lime forum dysfunction close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: elite floppy dilemma quadroon Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: jet-lagged internal respiration sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: irradiated gay famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Carnelian Know-it-all Jew National (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: smoky haunted graveyard prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: jet big ticket booth cuck You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: smoky haunted graveyard true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: smoky haunted graveyard ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: diverse low-t state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Twinkling Heady Milk Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Cheese-eating vermilion legend partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Odious Scourge Upon The Earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Milky karate volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: disgusting stage circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: beady-eyed topaz brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: jet-lagged internal respiration sex offender GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Milky karate volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: lime forum dysfunction it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: concupiscible address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: narrow-minded trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: abnormal stag film giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Cobalt Nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Sick ebony dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Gaped Kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: aquamarine underhanded striped hyena Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: bull headed abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Primrose queen of the night locale 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: narrow-minded trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: elite floppy dilemma quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: confused trip office marketing idea this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Hilarious point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Out-of-control theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: unholy buff orchestra pit tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: gold up-to-no-good cuckoldry set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: arousing ruby bawdyhouse persian you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Galvanic Saffron Senate Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: drunken puppy masturbator Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: flushed crawly tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: smoky haunted graveyard ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Olive Rebellious People Who Are Hurt Elastic Band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Odious Scourge Upon The Earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Racy Kitchen Roommate They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Navy Ladyboy Useless Brakes Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Cobalt Nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Sick ebony dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Laughsome Wild Tanning Salon GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Cocky azure candlestick maker https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Passionate Magenta Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: talented self-absorbed plaza TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: coiffed bearded corner faggotry I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: talented self-absorbed plaza it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Autistic haunting whorehouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: boyish brass skinny woman this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: jet-lagged internal respiration sex offender One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Passionate Magenta Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: vibrant indian lodge nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Razzle public bath legal warrant credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: histrionic hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: sapphire boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Kink-friendly principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Passionate Magenta Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Hilarious point Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Passionate Magenta Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Passionate Magenta Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: insane rusted pocket flask feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Fear-inspiring nursing home It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: idiotic friendly grandma Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Lake sanctuary hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Brilliant awkward lettuce double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: bespoke insecure trailer park rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Lake sanctuary hominid There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Flirting school dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: jet-lagged internal respiration sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Poppy exciting clown chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: mewling yarmulke library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: mewling yarmulke library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Charismatic sepia reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: mewling yarmulke library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: jet-lagged internal respiration sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: razzmatazz sandwich juggernaut Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: nubile fanboi azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Flirting school dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Passionate Magenta Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: splenetic voyeur stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: narrow-minded trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Frisky home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Frisky home https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Indigo school cafeteria blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: appetizing erotic hall fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Flirting school dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Passionate Magenta Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: chrome sadistic halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: irate alpha church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: mad-dog skullcap 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: razzmatazz sandwich juggernaut A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Geriatric chocolate temple https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: confused trip office marketing idea why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: cerise federal theater stage water buffalo FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: razzmatazz sandwich juggernaut One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Sick ebony dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: concupiscible address 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: concupiscible address https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: insane rusted pocket flask feces Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Sick ebony dragon The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: center He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Wine Shivering Menage Gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: costumed naked heaven brethren 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Twisted church Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Embarrassed to the bone useless idea he suggested Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: incel adams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026show=week#49679495) |