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Elections

The Pollsters Blew It in 2020. Will They Be Wrong Again in 2024?

Survey firms are trying to learn from their mistakes after the biggest polling error in 40 years

By

Aaron Zitner

Updated Oct. 22, 2024 12:03 am ET

Emil Lendof/WSJ, iStock

Once the votes were counted in the 2020 presidential election, the result was clear: The pollsters had lost once again.

Surveys had indicated that Joe Biden was closing strong against then-President Donald Trump. He led by a comfortable 8.4 percentage points in the final Fivethirtyeight.com average of national polls just before the election, and by 7.2 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.

Biden ended up winning the national vote by less than 4.5 points—a lead that barely let him eke out victory in the Electoral College. If polls are missing the mark this year by the same magnitude, the narrow leads for Vice President Kamala Harris in many national averages today would actually be leads for Trump.

Pollsters have spent the years since 2020 experimenting with ways to induce hard-to-reach voters to participate in surveys and testing statistical techniques intended to improve accuracy. But expert opinion is mixed on whether polling is in for a repeat of 2020, which the professional association of pollsters called the most inaccurate performance in 40 years. New developments, such as the shift of Black and Latino voters toward Trump and the proliferation of online surveys, are creating potential sources of additional error.

“We are headed for more disaster,” said Jon Krosnick, a Stanford University political scientist. Among other problems, he believes many of the newer, online surveys are using unproven sampling methods.

Courtney Kennedy of the Pew Research Center has tracked the changes pollsters made in recent years to address accuracy, and she is cautiously hopeful of improvement.

“I wish I could say the polling industry has done these three things to give us all very high confidence that polls won’t systematically underestimate Trump’s support again,” said Kennedy, who supervises survey design and data science at Pew. “But that’s not the case. Pollsters have tried very hard to correct for the error, but there’s no silver bullet.”

The industry’s analysis of 2020 polling, conducted by a select committee of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, was full of dour news. Pollsters had understated Republican support not only in the presidential race but in elections for Senate and governor. No method of polling—by phone or online—emerged as the most reliable, leaving few clues for improving surveys. Pollsters had fixed problems that skewed some results in 2016, such as talking with too few working-class, white voters, Trump’s most supportive group. But new sources of error had apparently turned up.

In the aggregate, the panel said, polls overstated support for Biden by 3.9 percentage points in the national vote in the final two weeks of the campaign. That was a departure from 2016, when national polls were among the most accurate in 80 years but state-level polls failed to detect signs of Trump’s eventual victory in the Electoral College.

In 2020, the final, pre-election Wall Street Journal poll of the presidential race, conducted at the time with NBC News, found Biden leading Trump by 10 percentage points. The result came close to indicating actual Biden’s level of support—he won 51.25% of the national vote, compared with 52% in the survey—but understated Trump’s ultimate 47% share by about 5 percentage points.

A postelection analysis found that the poll understated the share of white voters and older voters who ultimately cast ballots, among other missteps, and it overstated Biden’s support in urban areas compared with the actual results. NBC’s pollsters have taken steps to address those issues. The Journal now conducts its polls separately from the network.

Pollsters are eager to point out the limits of their own craft. While surveys this year are revealing important, durable results—resistance to Biden seeking a second term, for example, was high, and core Democratic groups were unenthused by his candidacy—no poll can detect whether voters on an Election Day at some point in the future will favor one candidate or another in a state that will be decided by a small fraction of the electorate.

Moreover, 2020 presented some unusual conditions. Covid prompted some states to make it easier to vote. Early voting became more popular, and turnout hit a historic high. “All of these were confounding factors in measuring ballot support,” said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster works on NBC News polls.

Pollsters after 2020 realized that they needed to work harder to contact hard-to-reach voters and ensure the right mix of respondents. Even if they had enough Republicans in their surveys, the GOP voters who were most excited about Trump might also be the ones least likely to take polls. While pollsters worked to include more working-class, white voters, the voters in that group might include too many who work in offices and too few who work in fields such as construction, which could skew results.

Now, many pollsters use multiple techniques to reach voters, not just through landline phones and cellphones but also by texting voters and inviting them to take a survey online or with a live interviewer. Some groups, including Pew, are turning to an old form of communication—reaching some respondents by mail and inviting them to fill out surveys on paper if they don’t want to go online.

All pollsters statistically adjust the sample of voters in their surveys in an effort to make sure the sample matches the demographic mix of the voters in a state or in the country, depending on the poll, or the mix of adults as recorded by the census. Pew has found that adjusting a sample on a larger number of variables can improve results, and some pollsters have begun doing so.

One adjustment that has gained traction is adjusting a sample based on “recalled vote”—whether a voter backed Trump or Biden in 2020. Some pollsters believe this helps assure that support for Trump isn’t understated, while others say it introduces new forms of error, as people don’t accurately recall or report a vote they made several years earlier.

“It’s the single easiest thing you can do to try to true-up the partisan mix of a sample,” and it can be effective, said Kennedy. But the results vary by election, she said. “I would say it’s got a spotty track record.”

Scott Tranter, data science director at Decision Desk HQ, a political data firm, said some of this year’s trend-breaking developments, such as the shift of Latino and Black voters toward Trump, could cause new problems. Even if pollsters detect the shift in voting preferences among those voters, determining how many will actually cast ballots remains difficult. Similarly, a surge in suburban women who support abortion rights turning out to back Harris, should that materialize, might be hard for a pollster to foresee.

As a result, Tranter says he expects polling error to be about the same magnitude as in the recent past—but he doesn’t know if it will understate support for Trump, or for the Democratic nominee, as polls did in 2012, during then-President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign.

“It’s like a roulette wheel,” Tranter said. “Just because it showed up red the last two times doesn’t mean it’s going to show up red this time.”

Pollsters are still debating whether Trump himself exerts a unique force on voters that pollsters haven’t yet navigated. While state polls were off-base in 2016 and national polls erred in 2020, polling was considered generally accurate in the midterm elections of 2022, when Trump wasn’t on the ballot.

Some in the survey field have thought that Trump supporters are less trustful of civic institutions and so less likely to take surveys, while others might be wary of telling pollsters their true choice of candidate. Kennedy said there are signs in some recent polls that Trump voters in fact aren’t masking their voting intention, at least this year: People registered as Republicans have been as likely as registered Democrats, if not more so, to take some surveys.

“He’s become so normalized,” she said of Trump, “so I’m hoping that the measurement of people’s voting intention has become more accurate.”

Write to Aaron Zitner at aaron.zitner@wsj.com

The 2024 Election

The Best Things in Life—and Presidential Campaigns—Are Free

A Second Trump Presidency Stands to Radically Remake World Trade

Harris Fights to Counter Trump’s Appeal With Black Men

Economists See Inflation, Deficits Higher Under Trump

Gender Gap Is Defining Feature of Deadlocked Race

Trump, Harris Battle for Swing States Is Tied: WSJ Poll

Paths to Victory in the 2024 Election

State-by-State Guide to Voting Early

Copyright ©2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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What do you think?

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JM

Jane Marcus

6 minutes ago

Roevember is coming, and nothing can stop it! Women get in the voting booth, and they ignore what their husbands say and pull the lever for Harris. Harris wins big time! Suburban women decide every election, and it's a big vote this year for Harris!

(Edited)

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K B

4 minutes ago

“Ignore what their husbands say”? OMG do you realize this is 2024 not 1954? What a ridiculous thing to say

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Jane Marcus

3 minutes ago

Hmm, I have read thousands of times about the gender gap, where the only people who are sure about Trump are old men, whereas women of all ages are solidly behind Kamala.

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Michael Edwards

8 minutes ago

In Western elections, the late swing is almost always towards the right leaning Party.

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STEVEN COLAIANNI

12 minutes ago

Anyone else notice how this author does not capitalize "w" in "white," yet manages to do so for "Black" and "Latino"? Paragraphs 8, 11, and 14. Not so subtle, me thinks. More woke, PC nonsense. And offensive, btw.

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Bill Rose

7 minutes ago

You only get your race or ethnicity capitalized if your vote is important to the a democrat victory. Proper grammar and punctuation will return once the election is over and the useful idiots are no longer needed for the time being.

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Thomas Jones

14 minutes ago

More and more refuse to answer polling questions. Cell phones and caller ID have changed phone polls enormously. I think polls may be pretty difficult for use as a predictive tool any longer.

mrs

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Bill Rose

4 minutes ago

How do they reach the people who cannot afford to obtain an ID to vote? Those people don't have cell phones do they?

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JB

JOHNATHAN BOWDEN

8 minutes ago

Agree. If your name is not in my contact list, your call at best is going to voice mail. Too many spammers out there - how do I know that text polling message is legit versus a phishing attempt?

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R Ginsburg

14 minutes ago

The pollsters take a small sample of response and format those replies according to how they predict voter turnout to happen. The small number of responses will be formatted by political party, age, sex, etc. to reflect that prediction.

When that formatting is inaccurate the poll results are as well. When the margin of winning is as narrow in these battleground states as we are experiencing the polls don't function well.

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Bill Rose

2 minutes ago

Thanks for the explanation. So Kamala may not lose all the battleground states after all?

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si

srikanth iyer

15 minutes ago

Even if they don't blow it

. It will be the case of a broken clock being right

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OR

Omar Rahman

15 minutes ago

The pollsters won't be wrong this year. How can they be wrong when for swing states they're all giving non-answers within the margin of error? You can't be wrong if you say a candidate is ahead by 2 points within a plus or minus 4 point margin of error.

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JH

James Haggarty

16 minutes ago

it's past time we move to popular vote .

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RM

Robert M

1 minute ago

Exactly. We cannot keep having Presidents that lose by 8 million votes.

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SC

Susan Cody

12 minutes ago

Heck no. The Founders gave us the EC to prevent tyranny of the majority.

This moment in time is a perfect example of why the Electoral College is essential to protect the Republic.

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PATRICK DARNALL

24 minutes ago

Though I support Trump proudly, I will not take a survey because I don't trust the questioner's motives in asking, nor trust that they are a legitimate polling outfit.

Others have a similar hesitancy.

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SJ

Scott Johnson

28 minutes ago

How about ignoring the polls and early projections, and actually wait until the votes are counted to declare a winner

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BD

Bob Dame

28 minutes ago

The polls in Dem-run swing states may accurately show the margins the day after Election Day; but 5 days later when they are still counting, a miracle may occur and Kamala will win with overseas ballots.

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DA

Don Ari

29 minutes ago

If Trump pulls this off, he will reach the level of Julius Caesar. Incredible how they throw everything at him but he has what they don't have; genuine love from the real people on the ground.

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JH

James Haggarty

15 minutes ago

the depravity of a minority of voters.

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RH

Richard Herbst

30 minutes ago

The current election is a reflection of the Trump-Clinton go around. We voted for who we hated least. The 2020 election was lost because Trump didn't take his opponent seriously thinking he was running against Joe Biden and not the Democratic Party machine. If he loses this one it will be due to his party permitting him to manage his campaign.

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MM

Marion D. Mahoney

18 minutes ago

He hasn't been managing it. His daughter-in-law and a man (name?) are. He also has a team who recommended going back to Butler - genius, because 100,000 showed up - and doing the McDonald's stint, plus going into barber shops. Actually that was Lawrence Jones's idea.

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AG

Andrew Galloway

33 minutes ago

I guess I see that, though by my metrics "conservative" covers her a lot lot better than him. So I guess I really don't see that.

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Richard Wilkinson

35 minutes ago

I think most republicans think pollsters are a bunch of dems and many refuse to engage in any survey.

(Edited)

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jg

jeffrey green

36 minutes ago

The sole purpose, now, of any major market media "poll", including any done by the WSJ-NBC...is to "skew and bias" the result to show the election much tighter than it really is. They do this because they must make Dem voters think the Repubs possibly winning, unless Dems get out and vote against the evil Repubs, now. But 2024 changed all. Biased main stream media polls serve no purpose now except to bolster their own biased agenda. TRUTH comes now only from one site....the polymarket election bet site....about $1.1 BILLION $$$ bet. Yet Media polls show the race still somewhat close? It seems to be a blowout and Media will not accept that.

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Gary Jarmin

36 minutes ago

In my experience, one of the primary problems is undercounting newly registered voters who don’t show up as “likely” voters since they never voted before. The other is people lie about their actual preference or change their minds. The one that concerns me the most is how many of these are non-citizens. I suspect many will show up with their new

motor-voter IDs.

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CW

Charles Wells

37 minutes ago

Polls can be manipulated just like the far left media and their reporting. I vote for the individuals I agree with most and it's not about personality. Although, I must admit, it was when Hillary ran....

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Stephen King

38 minutes ago

Interesting how the WSJ fucuses on Trump's " pollimg underestimation: while totally ingnoring the "Red Wave" which never came.

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AC

Alison Chester

38 minutes ago

I yearn for the good old days when we would vote, and if our team didn’t win the election, we would still accept the results and get on with our lives. I’m afraid this is now gone for both major parties.

Mr. Alison.

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PATRICK DARNALL

21 minutes ago

I appreciate a chasm between me and my enemies. Pick a side, let's both see where the other stands.

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John Sutton

39 minutes ago

Polling questions can be misleading, or they may be part of a "push poll" in which the pollsters are trying to impact "public opinion" by creating a narrative or arrive at a predetermined answer for their client. The most accurate polls are internal polling conducted by the candidates to help guide them on campaign strategy which are not released publicly (why disclose your weaknesses to the public or opponent?). The best pollster from 2016 and 2022 that were closest to the actual results were the Investor's Business Daily, Rasmussen, and Trafalgar. These polls are still taking weekly polls in all 7 battleground states which have shown Trump improve for 4 consecutive weeks and now pull ahead of Harris and if these polls are close to the last two elections, then Trump should win 5 out of 7 states by an average of 2% to 4%. I think Trump will win NC, GA, AZ, PA, and MI while Harris will win NV and WI.

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AK

ANNETTE KAHN

41 minutes ago

There must be a lot of people who don’t respond to poll takers, no matter how they reach out. I am one of them. As far as I’m concerned, it’s nobody’s business what my voting preferences are…

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Allan Mallory

31 minutes ago

I think this is a fair point, and encompasses two primary groups: (1) people who support Trump and don't want to publish it; and (2) white housewives who support Harris, but wait to show that support until they vote privately.

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MM

Mike Marks

41 minutes ago

One thing I haven't seen addressed is how forecasting is extrapolated with regard to the makeup of the population sampled. For example, if the survey data is 50% men/50% women but voting ends up 45% men and 55% women, that would have a huge impact on actual results, given that many more women than men will be voting for Harris.

Polls are neither right or wrong. They are just data. The issue in forecasting is how that data is interpreted.

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GN

Gregory Nastali

41 minutes ago

Ever since Dobbs Democrats have overperformed 10% nationally and locally

Roevember Is Coming

There is nothing maga can do to stop it

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JH

John Haselow

42 minutes ago

Until they figure out how to get rid of the inherent sampling bias (only getting replies from people who answer their phones and are willing to answer), the polls will not be very useful.

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JJ

Jay James

44 minutes ago

The Left, including legacy media, has executed an extraordinary psyop on Americans that demonizes supporting Trump. Voters who intend to select Trump (and other conservatives) aren't going to confide in pollsters because they are lumped in with the other a holes on the left.

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R Ginsburg

18 minutes ago

Voters who intend to select Trump (and other conservatives)

Trump is not a conservative.

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JJ

Jay James

6 minutes ago

He's close enough for me, given the alternative.

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SC

Steve C

45 minutes ago

Polls keep indicating Trump ahead in Arizona, however, I see a lack of enthusiasm amongst MAGA when compared to the 2020 election. Plenty of conservatives/republicans for Harris advertising and a robust Dem ground game are obvious as well.

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CW

Charles Wells

34 minutes ago

Not true. AZ will go Trump big-time but Lake will lose. AZ knows the Border Czar has done nothing to stop the invasion at the AZ border.

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SC

Steve C

19 minutes ago

That may be but it does not change my observations, which should be concerning for MAGA.

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RD

Robert C. DELANY

46 minutes ago

I haven’t received a call from

any pollsters for the last. 5 years .

Whom do they actually get their poll numbers from or are they tied in with the antiquated Nielsen ratings system.? All these numbers come from somewhere but I don’t know anyone in the NYC metro area that has been polled. Why do we give these polls so much credence?

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JS

Jeffrey S

51 minutes ago

The polls had it wrong in 2016 as well. "I'm with her" had a 4% lead the day before the election according to the polls.

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DR

David Rappaport

44 minutes ago

Exactly, that was my first thought: 2020? What about the colossally wrong polling in 2016!! And the oddsmakers were even more wrong in making Hillary heavily favored.

(Edited)

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PD

PATRICK DARNALL

18 minutes ago

I was jubilant that Hillary refused to even speak to her own "victory party" after her loss.

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AL

Alan Lewis

52 minutes ago

Approximately $2.5 billion currently wagered in the betting markets has Trump's market-implied probability of winning at 60%.

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jg

jay gee

42 minutes ago

So we're going to take the universe of people who be?. And then we're going to say that universe is an accurate indicator of the outcome? Betting odds are not an indicator of probability. They're an indicator of bets made.

Your chances of being right are about 50%.

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AL

Alan Lewis

35 minutes ago

Generally, academic research supports the common sense idea that betting markets are more accurate predictors than polls. Google for the literature.

It's theoretically possible for those markets to develop a "risk premium" (i.e., a systematic bias) but this would probably require most bettors to have a common belief about the financial consequences of the Presidential winner. Absent good evidence or rationale for that, I think the default assumption should be that those markets are "quasi-objective".

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jg

jay gee

25 minutes ago

"Generally, academic research supports the common sense idea that betting markets are more accurate predictors than polls."

For elections? I disagree. And why is that "common sense"? Bettors tend to be no more "correct" than anyone else. The only difference is that they bet,

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Jessika Tenny

53 minutes ago

They are wrong. It will be a blowout loss for Trump. Again.

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MM

Marion D. Mahoney

45 minutes ago

Paid commenter? Bye

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Gregory Nastali

43 minutes ago

Pretty rich coming from Marion

maga projection is always good for a chuckle

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Michael R

54 minutes ago

They will be off by a full 1-2% of the total vote in each State.

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AA

Anthony Alfero

57 minutes ago

Who knows who is even trying to be accurate. Who would think that CBS would include well over double the % of blacks, as they represent in the nation. A group that overwhelmingly votes D.

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LG

Larry Grant

57 minutes ago

Have pollsters stopped oversampling Dems? If not, they'll blow it again.

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MM

Marion D. Mahoney

58 minutes ago

Robert Cahaly and Matt Cower said last night they are confused as to why many polling results stopped being reported since September - except theirs. Someone posited it was because results were not to Democrat's liking.

I think polls are a form of propaganda in many cases.

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This comment violated our policy.

DS

D Sapel

35 minutes ago

Trump's fraud wont be the deciding factor.

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GN

Gregory Nastali

44 minutes ago

maga excuses continue

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AA

Anthony Alfero

54 minutes ago

People won't like that comment but also will not be able to explain why the dems are fighting to make it easy for illegals to vote and blocking every possible ways, to stop this illegal act. Their actions define their motivation.

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D Sapel

42 minutes ago

Lies. Illegal immigrants aren't on voter rolls, and if the miniscule 1/100000000 of 1 % tried to vote, they'd be turned away. Dems control hurricanes and the weather too, right?

(Edited)

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MM

Marion D. Mahoney

43 minutes ago

I agree. How clueless are we if we don't realize why 11-20 million were just let in?

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LG

Larry Grant

57 minutes ago

I wonder what time in the dead of night vote counting will stop and restart this time?

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MM

Marion D. Mahoney

42 minutes ago

My friend in Germany saw it last time. They are five hours ahead.

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Kyle Rose

59 minutes ago

Remember that national polls are meaningless because we do not have a national election for President: instead, we have 50 individual state elections for President. Only those states that are actually closely-enough divided that they could go one way or the other (i.e., the "swing states") can affect the outcome.

I, for instance, live in Massachusetts where we knew 20 years ago that whoever the Democratic candidate in 2024 ended up being was going to get all of MA's electoral college votes.

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Marion D. Mahoney

40 minutes ago

Deep blue state and much farther left than when we lived there for 12 years.

(Edited)

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Linda Ciam

1 hour ago

Since the Democrats have villainized anyone voting for Trump, many people are reluctant to admit they are voting for Trump, so I'm assuming these polls are very skewed against him.

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Marshall Dillon

1 hour ago

I'll hang up on pollsters if they call me. I'll keep them guessing as I'm neither registered Democrat or GOP in NYS.

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MM

Marion D. Mahoney

57 minutes ago

So you don't have to register to vote in a primary? In MD we do.

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KR

Kyle Rose

1 hour ago

They "blew it" only in the sense that the races are so close as to make the outcomes literally unpredictable, yet the pollsters won't frame their polls this way because it's hard to sell a "No one knows" story.

Just accept that there's no way to know who's going to win this race until the actual votes are counted, unless one candidate really starts pulling ahead in support, something that is very unlikely this late in the race.

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MM

Marion D. Mahoney

56 minutes ago

Or a ballot-dump at 3 am

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Gregory Nastali

1 hour ago

Trust funds that shore up Social Security benefits would run out of money within six years if Donald Trump wins this November, a report has stated.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan public policy think-tank, said that Trump's economic plans would "dramatically worsen Social Security's finances" as it faces a total depletion of its trust funds that help pay retirement, survivor and disability benefits for tens of millions of Americans. If not addressed, benefits could automatically slashed by around 20 percent in 2034, the CRFB said.

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LG

Larry Grant

53 minutes ago

The preferred Dim method to save SS is to run the presses at high speed because that method is effect-free. Then they plan to give you a cost-of-living raise that covers about 10% of the inflation that plan will cause...just like this year.

But thanks, Nasti, for pointing out that SS is unsustainable in it's current form.

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jay gee

49 minutes ago

So if the COLA is 5%, that means inflation for that year was 50%?

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Larry Grant

40 minutes ago

The COLA this year was much under 5%, half that, in fact. And as near as I can tell that's about 10% of the amount my grocery bill has increased under SloJo/Kamal.

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Benjamin Wiley

55 minutes ago

Because Trump doesn't want to tax Social Security payments.

You should go ask some seniors if they want their benefits taxed, Greg. You might learn something.

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Marion D. Mahoney

26 minutes ago

Yes. I always thought taxing it was insane. This is our money, taken out of every paycheck when we worked. Seniors are on a fixed income. Kamala's idea is to increase the deficit by passing a $500billion blow-out bill for home healthcare.

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jay gee

51 minutes ago

LOL. Go ask anyone if they want to be taxed. I hardly think that's a basis for setting tax policy.

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Benjamin Wiley

48 minutes ago

It sort of is, because most people would receive more favorable tax treatment under the Pharaoh in the Bible than they do under the federal government.

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GN

Gregory Nastali

51 minutes ago

You should go ask some seniors if they want their benefits automatically slashed by around 20 percent . You might learn something.

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Benjamin Wiley

49 minutes ago

That will occur regardless of whoever is in power in 2033-34.

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William Markley

1 hour ago

We can all understand the goals of polling by looking at Hillary's emails from 2015. Oversampling is the goal of the campaign to influence the voters that want to be on the "winning" side when determining who to vote for. In short, oversampling for Dems isn't a bug, it's a feature.

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Richard Chupp

57 minutes ago

Spoken like a software Product Manager. 😀👍

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Timothy B

1 hour ago

All you need to know is one word that will turn the tide for Harris and blunt the hype of younger men, blacks, Hispanics.

Women.

Just watch and fasten your seat belts.

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Larry Grant

52 minutes ago

You need to date more, then you might learn a thing or two about how different women think.

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carol Perry

1 hour ago

Women are not just one issue voters. Younger women may show up to vote on the abortion issue but older women , a more reliable voting block will see the economy and inflation as a bigger concern.

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Stanton Zeff

1 hour ago

Don't be so sure: I'm married to one and I can tell you she's not impressed with Harris. Just sayin'

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Marion D. Mahoney

54 minutes ago

Agree. Here we go again with this suburban women thing as if we are all air heads.

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Linda Ciam

1 hour ago

Hardly... 🙄

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Jaime Fazzalore

1 hour ago

I do not pay attention to polls or pollsters. They are as irrelevant as the United Nations.

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Mike Ross

1 hour ago

Our suburb is split nearly 50/50, every election. However, if you read Nextdoor , and other local discussions of state political issues, national policy, or the election, the comments are pro Dem, easily 80%, or more.

By the websites , one would assume our area was bright Blue Blue, but residents vote, either, evenly split, or just slightly Right. Maybe I'm wrong, but it would seem a logical assumption, that the same people overwhelmingly posting for Dems, would be more likely to answer polls.

Mrs

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Jan B

1 hour ago

Next door in our area is vile and leftist as well as highly political. I got off of it and am glad I did.

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Jean Hamel

1 hour ago

You must live in California or New York.My suburb says the opposite.

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YD Sam

1 hour ago

Over 200k Amish in PA (and other states) are voting or going to vote. They were apolitical until Democrat's lunatic policies like supporting gender change of kids, being crime friendly, defunding police, allowing millions of illegals and they are done with them. That tells a lot about what Harris and Democrats are. I can't wait Nov 5th

(Edited)

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jay gee

20 minutes ago

Jeezus, the Amish vote? You've tracked the Amish vote?

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M Whiting

1 hour ago

How many of the publicly released polls are actually push polls?

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Seely Pratt

1 hour ago

All you need to know is the tide is running against Kamala and for President Trump. Undecided voters want the thrill of being on the winning team, so Kamala is in trouble.

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D Sapel

39 minutes ago

Say hello to the next President of the United States of America, Kamala Harris

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jay gee

48 minutes ago

Oh, the thrill! Few experiences in life can match it.

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Richard Chupp

1 hour ago

The problem with the polls is not errors, processes, or methods of contact. The problem is that many people don't trust that responses will be confidential. Plus there is absolutely no benefit to participating vs. the risk of some group trying to target or cancel you in your job or financially.

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Richard Chupp

1 hour ago

One adjustment that has gained traction is adjusting a sample based on “recalled vote”—whether a voter backed Trump or Biden in 2020.

And how would a pollster know that?????

Some in the survey field have thought that Trump supporters are less trustful of civic institutions and so less likely to take surveys, while others might be wary of telling pollsters their true choice of candidate.

Pollsters don't conduct their surveys for free. Why should someone offer an opinion for free?

(Edited)

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CRAIG ANDERSON

1 hour ago

Maybe look at the betting markets as well. Last stat I saw over $billion wagered so far on this race. May not be karge compared to the NFL, but it's real money

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jay gee

1 hour ago

Well, let's examine that, since in any betting market, about half the participants tend to make the wrong bet.

Your premise seems to be that (usually slim) majority of people who bet correctly on the outcome are an indicator of what the outcome will be. IOW, they're betting on it so there must be something to it. I don't believe that, but OK if it works for you.

(Edited)

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Brian H

1 hour ago

The polls are normally under influenced and controlled politically with purpose as they select who are polled.

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Jerry G

1 hour ago

Pollsters simply aren't reaching a vast majority of voters under the age of 45 because they are immune from this type of outreach. The daily updates of early voting/mail-in voting is much more accurate of where things are heading and despite the WSJ's other article today, it's looking might good for Harris/Walz.

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Bill Rose

1 hour ago

The betting sites have Trump winning every battleground state with his probability of winning the Electoral college at 70%. Kamala is still a favorite to win the popular vote with her chances of doing so at 68%. The Republicans are favored to take back the senate and keep the house. Without being a member or having access beyond the paywall, there is no way to see how many seats the Republicans are projected to win in the Senate or House.

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John Pound

1 hour ago

Polling tends to over-sample Democrats. So when the polls are "tied", that's bad news for the Dems as evidenced by their growing hysteria as Nov 5th approaches...

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jay gee

1 hour ago

I think some polling does over-sample Dems, but not intentionally. But then there are polls that don't, which is one reason why two "credible" polls can come up with different numbers.

I'll leave the "hysteria" comment to others better qualified to analyze it.

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Jan B

1 hour ago

Polls are unimportant and a total waste of time and money. Many people lie to throw pollsters off. And comments are also false. No one knows exactly who you voted for in the privacy of the voting booth or that mail in ballot you filled out in the privacy of your home.

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Bill Rose

1 hour ago

Betting sites are the only real indicator of the electorate and who will win. Right now, based on betting sites, Trump will win all the battleground states and win the electoral college in a landslide. But, who knows...we have less than two weeks till we get the answer.

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Mike G

1 hour ago

I've been polled once. I was honest. I think the pollster was shocked and appalled.

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CHRIS BEALE

1 hour ago

So. This is all a guessing game, and they all or some or maybe will be right in their predictions. Election night: too close to call, the usual stolen election, lawsuits, and others.

Whomever the eventual winner, the country will still be divided.

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William McNamara

1 hour ago

The exact same discussion, excepting the virus, was held after the 2016 elections. From Scientific American:

In the weeks leading up to the November 2016 election, polls across the country predicted an easy sweep for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. ... The polls were ultimately right about the popular vote. But they missed the mark in key swing states that tilted the Electoral College toward Trump.

In both cases - 2016 and 2020 - the polls dramatically overstated support for the Democrat in close races. The broader popular vote, which is somewhat meaningless given that California/Washington State/Mass/NY are fully blue and we have an Electoral College ensuring less populated states still have representation - was nearly correct, but the swing states were off significantly.

They have a systemic problem, not a one-off problem.

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jay gee

1 hour ago

Yes, but the polls were off in the margins of the swing states, too, not just on the popular-vote total.

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HAROLD PINE

1 hour ago

Knucklehead said he wanted to disband the electoral college system not realizing many Republicans don't vote in heavy blue states. They say what's the point. Go vote regardless of whether you think your state is going blue. If you think your state is going red and you are a democrat stay home.

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Nikola Sizgorich

1 hour ago

Pollsters have been wrong year after year after year. They just want to hear what they want to hear, which is why they, like the legacy media, keep losing.

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CHRIS BEALE

1 hour ago

They just want to feel important. Their 10 minutes of fame, or 5 minutes.

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jeffrey green

1 hour ago

Don't forget...for ages the WSJ & NBC teamed up for all kinds of "polls". Why bother doing it then. NBC is full-boat leftist...and WSJ is now fast emulating NBC attitudes. So if a major media outlet is behind any poll...ignore it...they are wrong in the end far too often. That is what happens when you are biased.

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Pete Conrad

1 hour ago

Ha, pollsters really blew it in 2016.

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Franco Columbo

1 hour ago

I had a belly laugh over that one. Ah yes, the "experts."

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Richard Sebulsky

1 hour ago

the good ole days Pete. the streets were full of screaming people with their hair on fire. I'm still waiting for some to leave the country. lol

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MI

Martin Igel

1 hour ago

I think people in general are hesitant to participate in polls. Whenever I get contacted, a couple thoughts run through my mind. First, if it's a text, I think it's some sort of phishing scam. Second, I think it's just a fundraising tactic and not a legitimate poll. Third, I consider the privacy implications. So, I never participate in polls.

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Marion D. Mahoney

49 minutes ago

I started answering the questions for one a long time ago. It was so long I finally hung up.

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