Date: November 2nd, 2026 3:40 PM Author: Historical American
It's possible Dems have a good night. They're not having a good night on the level of the NYT Siena poll projections. It's prima facie outside the bounds of reality. People are mad at Trump sure. Democrats are fired up sure. But we still live in a world where millions of boomers love this administration. And I think they show up to vote tomorrow, throwing pollsters, pundits, and gamblers for a loop.
what's crazy is if anything the media making a big deal of the early voting stats and polls and stuff will make Dems complacent and more likely to stay home tomorrow
Date: November 2nd, 2026 4:15 PM Author: Historical American
Well the idea is that all the EV hype essentially causes more Democrats to vote early because they see their colleagues doing it. By the same token it scares Republicans into voting on ED. So it's really hard to predict what impact it may have. Certainly any true believing Republican will go out tomorrow to on account of the negativity in the polls and the media. Dems are feeling giddy that most of their people have already punched the ticket. I think though that from a campaign perspective they would rather more people vote early so as not to have to rely on election day, and it also lets phonebankers cross off the EV people so they can double down on stragglers.
NYT Siena poll was just re-sizing the election Overton window so that when the fraud yields only a 14 point margin we can point to the NYT poll as a way to dismiss the fraud claims.