Mail-in ballot data so far not looking so hot for dems
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: October 6th, 2026 1:10 PM Author: Bateful Trust Fund
This is actual 2026 voting data btw, not a NYT/Siena/Gallup wishcast or some bullshit a “Kalshi” pajeet dreamed up on orders from USAID
https://x.com/taftermath2020/status/2107505880665387489?s=46
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50174210) |
Date: October 6th, 2026 4:02 PM Author: Bateful Trust Fund
Iowa is going to be a repeat of “Selzer” in 2024, even perennial lib flack “Ryan Grim” sees it coming
https://x.com/ryangrim/status/2107498792723636365?s=46
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50174563) |
Date: October 6th, 2026 4:23 PM Author: canary floppy gas station roommate
left media is quoting Trump saying Republicans are gonna "cheat like hell like [Democrats] do" at the midterm convention and urging people to vote in person
https://youtu.be/JHBRMyx_xHs?t=10
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50174603) |
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Date: October 6th, 2026 4:41 PM Author: Bateful Trust Fund
Democrats = communism.
GOP has problems but nothing that comes close to the absolute destruction of America democommies are openly guaranteeing.
That’s all there is to it. Your “Israel” obesession is somewhere between boring and retarded at this point, and no one is listening to you.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50174646) |
Date: October 6th, 2026 5:05 PM Author: Multi-colored jap
ChatGPT pay version:
Is the early midterms voting data more favorable to Democrats or Republicans?
So far, the early-voting data show higher Democratic participation relative to recent baselines, although the data are still sparse and heavily weighted toward mail voting. The clearest evidence is Virginia: as of the latest detailed analysis, voters with a Democratic-primary history were outnumbering those with a Republican-primary history by about 18 points statewide, versus only about an 8-point Democratic advantage at the same stage in 2024. In two competitive Republican-held House districts, the change was especially large: VA-1 went from roughly R+3 at this point in 2024 to D+15 now, and VA-2 from about D+2 to D+18.
There are similar patterns in mail-ballot requests. Registered Democrats account for 67% of requests in Iowa (54% at the comparable point in 2024), 66% in Pennsylvania (62% in 2024), 57% in Maine (53%), and 42% in North Carolina (36%). One important qualification is that, except for Iowa, those Democratic shares are actually lower than they were at the comparable point in the 2022 midterm.
The reason I would not translate those figures directly into an election forecast is that mail voting is structurally much more Democratic than Election Day voting, and Republicans have tended to cast a larger portion of their votes later. VoteHub specifically warns that the meaningful comparison is not simply D versus R ballots today, but whether each party is turning out voters faster than its historical pattern—and whether it is reaching lower-propensity voters rather than merely banking votes from people who would certainly vote anyway.
That said, the relative-to-baseline numbers are the interesting part, particularly Virginia. The difference between D+18 now and D+8 at the comparable point in 2024 is harder to dismiss merely as Democrats preferring early voting, because that preference existed in 2024 too. The same is true of the sizable shifts in VA-1 and VA-2. That is evidence of a Democratic turnout/enthusiasm advantage at this stage of voting, rather than evidence about how the ballots themselves were cast.
It's also consistent with the broader environment: recent national polling has shown Democrats ahead on congressional preference, while contemporary election analysis has identified Democratic enthusiasm as one of the important features of the 2026 electorate.
Bottom line as of October 6: the early-vote evidence currently shows stronger Democratic participation relative to recent comparable periods, with Virginia providing the strongest signal. But we're still roughly four weeks from Election Day, many states have barely begun in-person voting, and Republican turnout historically arrives later. So these numbers are considerably more useful as an enthusiasm indicator than as a proxy for the eventual vote.
The next thing I'd watch is whether that Virginia D-overperformance persists once several hundred thousand more in-person votes come in, and whether the same pattern emerges in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and the competitive House districts. That will tell us substantially more than today's national aggregate.
I can keep an eye on the early-vote data and let you know when the picture materially changes.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50174692) |
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Date: October 6th, 2026 5:14 PM Author: Multi-colored jap
Well, let's ask MAGA Grok then (not gonna waste my mental energy on this, plus we are both biased)
Is the early midterms voting data more favorable to Democrats or Republicans?
Thought for 10s
Early voting data for the 2026 midterms currently looks more favorable to Democrats, mainly as a sign of higher Democratic participation so far—not as a count of actual votes.
As of October 6, the University of Florida Election Lab reports about 1.6 million early votes nationwide (roughly 1.3 million returned mail ballots and 304,000 in-person). In the states that report party registration, the split among those who have already voted is about 58% Democratic, 26% Republican, and 16% unaffiliated or minor-party. That is a large Democratic edge, but it covers only part of the country and a small share of the expected total vote.
CNN’s October 1 analysis of ballot requests and early returns (compiled with the AP and Catalist) found the same pattern in several competitive states, and a larger Democratic share than at the same point in 2024:
Iowa: Democrats about 67% of ballot requests, up from 54%
Pennsylvania: 66%, up from 62%
Maine: 57%, up from 53%
North Carolina: 42%, up from 36%
In Virginia, which does not register by party, localities that backed Harris by more than 20 points in 2024 were at 78% of their early-voting pace from the same point in 2024, versus 61% in localities Trump won by more than 20. Using primary participation as a proxy, Democratic primary voters were also leading among early voters in competitive House districts (roughly 15–18 points in VA-1 and VA-2). North Carolina data posted the same day showed early/absentee ballots so far about 45% Democratic, 17% Republican, and 38% unaffiliated, with voters 65 and older making up about 61%.
These numbers line up with stronger Democratic primary turnout this year and with polling that has generally shown Democrats more motivated. An NBC poll in September also found Democrats shifting somewhat toward early in-person voting and away from mail relative to 2024, while Republican plans (mostly Election Day) were little changed.
Important limits:
Party registration is not the same as how someone votes. Ballots are not counted until Election Day.
Early and especially mail voters have skewed Democratic in recent cycles; Republicans have tended to vote later, often on Election Day. CNN notes that, except in Iowa, Democratic shares of requests in those states were higher at this point in 2022 than they are now.
Volume is still small relative to the roughly 57 million pre-Election Day votes in 2022. Most in-person early voting ramps up later in October.
The early electorate is heavily older (about 65% age 65+ in states reporting age).
So the early data favor Democrats on turnout and enthusiasm relative to 2024, but they do not yet show who will win, and the gap can narrow as in-person early voting and Election Day voting increase. Election Day is November 3.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50174709) |
Date: October 6th, 2026 5:25 PM Author: Bateful Trust Fund
Ohio early voting is underway… looking like mostly MAGA boomers, DSA zoomer freaks nowhere in sight.
https://x.com/toneroushyus/status/2107532100110868984?s=46
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50174725) |
Date: October 6th, 2026 5:48 PM Author: Useless stimulating striped hyena
So the Israeli party is beating the Israeli party.
csb
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50174740) |
Date: October 6th, 2026 8:01 PM Author: Bateful Trust Fund
Even prominent online libs are realizing with horror the polls have been bullshit all year. This entire month is going to be fucking hilarious.
https://x.com/mattzeitlin/status/2107565824294760730?s=46
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50174943) |
Date: October 7th, 2026 2:55 PM Author: Bateful Trust Fund
Dems probably should have tried to register more voters in battleground states and districts over the last two years.
https://x.com/devorydarkins/status/2107851253556433144?s=46
Too late now!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50176650) |
Date: October 8th, 2026 3:51 PM Author: Bateful Trust Fund
Talarico has apparently been in a looney bin for the last week-plus. Still a “lean D” race libs?
https://x.com/seanfeucht/status/2108259964095512907?s=46
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50178834) |
Date: October 8th, 2026 3:53 PM Author: Bateful Trust Fund
Maybe if dems hire more illegals to work the campaigns they can stop their current slide before it gets really bad.
https://x.com/insiderwire/status/2108035262966325448?s=46
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50178842) |
Date: October 8th, 2026 5:45 PM Author: Bateful Trust Fund
Dems got one OK day of early voting turnout and then it tanked, while GOP EV turnout has remained consistent.
https://x.com/earlyvotedata/status/2108308393970786647?s=46
Trend is going to stay like this and all the key races will be Joever by Halloween. Election Day in-person voting will just be GOP kicking libs while they’re down.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50179030)
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Date: October 9th, 2026 5:09 PM Author: "'''""'"""'"
What will Georgia libs do now that they can’t cheat as much? Other than scream and bitch and attempt assassinations that is.
https://x.com/rncvoteprotect/status/2108642028833886697?s=46
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50180924) |
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Date: October 11th, 2026 11:59 PM
Author: .,..,,.,.,.,.,.,..,.,.,..,..,
wow this election data guy site sounds accurate. hey by the way how are they projecting the elections to end up?
https://www.electiondataguy.com/
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50185027) |
Date: October 13th, 2026 11:44 AM Author: "'''""'"""'"
Pro-Cornyn GOP whale donor in Houston finally grows a pair and endorses Paxton. Voters can’t lie to themselves about what’s at stake anymore.
https://x.com/deskofmattcone/status/2110022764321181792
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50187771) |
Date: October 13th, 2026 12:19 PM Author: "'''""'"""'"
Libs is it “good” for your “blue wave” that more white republicans are voting in ATLANTA than black democrats?
https://x.com/toneroushyus/status/2110023720760922509?s=46
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5910227&forum_id=2#50187851) |
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