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What if UAE mines Iran's part of the Strait of Hormuz?
| German pumo | 04/06/26 |
| Fucking Fuckface | 04/06/26 |
| ;...;...;...;.. | 04/06/26 |
| Fucking Fuckface | 04/06/26 |
| German pumo | 04/06/26 |
| Fucking Fuckface | 04/06/26 |
| Iron Maiden | 04/06/26 |
| German pumo | 04/06/26 |
| Fucking Fuckface | 04/06/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: April 6th, 2026 9:21 AM Author: German pumo It's easy as fuck for a small boat to drop a couple of mines, but that applies to Iran's territorial waters as well. I doubt that the UAE will sit around forever and watch Iran get rich from tolls without making some kind of counterplay. Scenarios like that make me think Iran is off-base in thinking they will be allowed to control the Strait forever. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5854103&forum_id=2Firm#49797210) |
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Date: April 6th, 2026 9:29 AM Author: Fucking Fuckface Their maintenance of a strictly defensive posture isn't by chance. Unless they are ready to send in ground forces or have some kind of secret missile defense system we haven't seen, jumping in as a direct enemy would be the type of gamble they haven't shown any appetite for at this point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5854103&forum_id=2Firm#49797236) |
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Date: April 6th, 2026 11:26 AM Author: ;...;...;...;.. they want the straits re-opened on their terms bc they'll need the revenue to rebuild Iran.
They'll have to find some way to co-exist w the gulf states but would be hilarious if Iran opened the straits to everything BUT US and Israel traffic |
Date: April 6th, 2026 9:34 AM Author: Fucking Fuckface Oops, you asked a question. Some quick thoughts:
1. Iran would reciprocate, making it even harder to deescalate and get any ships through
2. UAE would start to bear some ire of key partners whose energy shipments are now unable to get through even with tolls
3. UAE becomes a direct enemy and an easier strike than Israel
4. There is real risk that the US leaves in a "victory" that resolves little to nothing in the UAE's favor after having made Iran a direct enemy
What is the actual benefit from mining that UAE gets to offset these negatives? |
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Date: April 6th, 2026 11:22 AM Author: German pumo Could force Iran to allow UAE oil to pass or could force the world to mobilize against Iran, militarily or (more likely) politically. If China stops being able to get any oil from the Persian Gulf then they will have a talk with Iran real quick. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5854103&forum_id=2Firm#49797450) |
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Date: April 6th, 2026 11:38 AM Author: Fucking Fuckface How would dropping mines on Iran's side mobilize the world more against Iran than it already is? Why would China be more upset with Iran than UAE in your scenario? If they want to stir up even more political pressure on Iran, why would they make themselves a legitimate target?
I'm on the record as saying humans are really stupid, including (particularly) me. So the fault is likely with me, but your scenarios seems to be incoherent and lacking in sense. Connect the dots for me |
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Date: April 6th, 2026 11:27 AM Author: Iron Maiden ((zurich is stained)) wouldn't iran just destroy all their fresh water for doing that?
i really would like to know whether nobody in the trump WH actually foresaw the way this war has gone (our allies being bombed, our bases being torn to shit, strait being closed), or did they know all of this was a significant risk but they slid and let do |
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Date: April 6th, 2026 11:29 AM Author: German pumo I've read the UAE has $400 billion in Iranian financial assets that they can seize. They can play the escalation game too.
As far as desalination plants, I'm not convinced those are as easy to knock out as flammable oil and gas facilities. |
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Date: April 6th, 2026 11:43 AM Author: Fucking Fuckface The $400 billion is a big deal. Iran holds at least that much of UAE hostage with its missiles
I'm not sure what Iran is going to do to nations that aren't direct participants if Trump actually strikes their power grid and desalination plants. But if you are a direct participant, I don't see why they wouldn't respond in kind. I don't think you want to gamble on how easy or difficult desalination plants are to knock out, because even a month of downtime for repairs (assuming all parts are on hand or readily available) would be catastrophic. UAE reportedly gets around 80% of its drinking water from such plants |