Date: January 25th, 2018 5:17 PM Author: haunting box office
watching people continue to discuss icx and ven for the past month feels like the twilight zone. what the fuck? prime minister of korea + others effectively say fuck cryptos and you decide the best move is to parse their language till it makes sense to throw money at korea again?
i want to bet that my portfolio (80% xlm/10% eth/ 10% ada) rapes your collection of random asian coins over the next several months. will bet 2 ppl max or you guys can split the pot amongst yourselves. i’m done shilling now i just want to monetize your bad decision making
Date: January 25th, 2018 8:25 PM Author: haunting box office
Your first factor (irrationality of crypto) is at war with every other factor you listed (potential negative considerations that should matter in an efficient, remotely sophisticated market). Plus market cap matters way less than the supply of coins actively circulating in exchanges. the scariest thing for me is actually that xlm may have a huge velocity precisely because it’s so fast at moving coins around (reducing the value of any one coin) but I’m banking that folks will hoard it for a while as it becomes an ico platform and eventually a store of value (why store it in bitcoin if stellar let’s you automatically flip into other coins and fiat easier than any other coin via fairx)
I do have a knack for picking stories that are likely to catch on more broadly, often using what amount to high level theses. But here what are usually vague intuitions feel more like 500 pound gorillas violently shaking me screaming “buy you fucking moron!”
XLM = numerous catalysts for explosive growth. Asia coins = scary if so many investors fear losing their money due to regulation. You’re correct about the riskiness of this bet but I could not be more confident in making it.
Date: January 25th, 2018 8:38 PM Author: multi-colored elastic band
market cap exerts a silent pressure, it's like physics.
what you think is going to be the dominant narrative may not turn out to be.
betting on this is not risky at all in the context of crypto, it's more that this doesn't have the same upside as other coins. and by being safe, in essence tethering itself to real world results in the eyes of more intelligent and hence skeptical buyers, it is thereby RISKIER in the larger scheme because crypto as a whole can implode at any moment.
Date: January 25th, 2018 9:25 PM Author: haunting box office
look i’m 100% on board with the “swing for the fucking fences because all this fugazi internet monopoly money share the same systemic risk of total implosion” school. it’s how i justified going all in on cardano and xvg instead of hedging with bitcoin and ether.
i think we just disagree about (1) XLM’s potential upside (i think $4 by year end isn’t inconceivable) and (2) whether trying to play armchair venture capitalist hunting for 100000x returns is a smart expected value play
Date: January 26th, 2018 11:23 AM Author: multi-colored elastic band
$4 by end of year is what, 6x gains?
you're here crowing about potential 6x gains in ONE YEAR, when this crypto bubble has only been around for ONE YEAR, and is just as likely to completely fucking implode in the next 6 months as it is to not? and you are staking your reputation in a euphoric bet based on these expectations of a 6x gain? fucking shameful
Date: January 25th, 2018 8:31 PM Author: haunting box office
I dunno man it just jumped 25% in a week. in the stock market this would be plastered on the wsj as the year’s biggest growth story. Hardly indicative of a tapped out coin
Date: January 25th, 2018 8:36 PM Author: flickering naked locale
To be fair
it rose 25% this week after crashing 25% the week before that. i actually bought in at 0.66 as my first buy and then watched it crash to 0.4 and now come back to 0.6