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hey libs do you understand correlation? correlate Trump +7 in IA bitch
| Slap-happy titillating dopamine | 10/31/20 |
| elite low-t toaster windowlicker | 10/31/20 |
| pearl multi-colored degenerate | 10/31/20 |
| white hall | 10/31/20 |
| Thriller smoky boltzmann travel guidebook | 10/31/20 |
| Slap-happy titillating dopamine | 10/31/20 |
| Mind-boggling Cream Trump Supporter | 10/31/20 |
| pearl multi-colored degenerate | 10/31/20 |
| white hall | 10/31/20 |
| pearl multi-colored degenerate | 10/31/20 |
| Slap-happy titillating dopamine | 10/31/20 |
| Mind-boggling Cream Trump Supporter | 10/31/20 |
| pearl multi-colored degenerate | 10/31/20 |
| vigorous party of the first part | 06/28/22 |
| provocative silver hell regret | 06/28/22 |
| provocative silver hell regret | 06/28/22 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: October 31st, 2020 8:15 PM Author: Slap-happy titillating dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#41231130) |
Date: October 31st, 2020 8:15 PM Author: elite low-t toaster windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#41231134) |
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Date: October 31st, 2020 8:16 PM Author: pearl multi-colored degenerate Lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#41231136) |
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Date: October 31st, 2020 8:16 PM Author: white hall Bad poll for Biden, but Iowa is not his state...MI/WI/MI are stronger for him. He really does need NC or GA for a decisive win though (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#41231138) |
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Date: October 31st, 2020 8:22 PM Author: Thriller smoky boltzmann travel guidebook *takes huge bong rip of copium* (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#41231167) |
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Date: October 31st, 2020 8:22 PM Author: Slap-happy titillating dopamine so every poll other than this got IA wrong but they all got MI/WI/PA right? lmao
i am sure those shitlib polls showing biden +17 in WI were accurate
but this IA poll basically means trump is going to crush the midwest. probably will win at least 2 of PA/MI/WI/MN
the only reason why i wont predict trump's reelection is that IA is not correlated that much to sub belt states like NC/GA/AZ
so we could have a topsy turvy election where Trump crushes the mid west and loses POTUS because Biden strongly outperforms in NC/GA/AZ and flips those states. But trump is also crushing FL which is well correlated to GA/NC etc so thats unlikely
if i have to bet today i would say that the race is 55-45 in favor of trump. biden is the one slightly behind and needs to outperform in NC/GA/AZ and flip a state or 2 there |
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Date: October 31st, 2020 8:25 PM Author: Mind-boggling Cream Trump Supporter RCP Average is Biden +1.5, this poll is Trump +15 and you don't think this should ring some alarm bells about the polls you have relied on? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#41231179) |
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Date: October 31st, 2020 8:27 PM Author: pearl multi-colored degenerate This is an A+ poll! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#41231187) |
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Date: October 31st, 2020 8:27 PM Author: white hall It does ring some alarm bells - but there will be about 100 polls released tomorrow and Monday, so let’s see. IA was never a Biden state - neither was OH frankly. Biden’s best shot still is an early NC/FL/GA win, all of which are very different than IA (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#41231190) |
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Date: October 31st, 2020 8:28 PM Author: pearl multi-colored degenerate Point is that it shows he’s going to sweep the Midwest. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#41231195) |
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Date: October 31st, 2020 8:33 PM Author: Slap-happy titillating dopamine nothing shows that he is going to flip NC/GA/AZ
all the polls that show him up by 2~4 points in these sunbelt states (which is still witinh MOE and doesn't account for hidden shy trump vote) also show him up by 8~10 points or something in midwest. so if they are so fucking wrong in the midwest how can they be suddenly accurate in the sunbelt?
the IA poll shows that at worst Trump is down by 2 or 3 in every midwestern state. so all these polls (abc, cnn, nbc, fox, nyt) are off by 5 or 6 pts since they show biden up by 8~10. if you apply the same delta to their sunbelt polls which are much closer then trump wins |
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Date: October 31st, 2020 8:33 PM Author: Mind-boggling Cream Trump Supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#41231235) |
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Date: October 31st, 2020 8:26 PM Author: pearl multi-colored degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#41231184) |
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Date: June 28th, 2022 11:30 AM Author: vigorous party of the first part LJL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#44758664) |
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Date: June 28th, 2022 11:32 AM Author: provocative silver hell regret wow you really smoked libs OP (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4668046&forum_id=2#44758673) |
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Date: June 28th, 2022 11:33 AM Author: provocative silver hell regret also Trump +7 means the electorate shifted 3 points, which means Biden would win MI, WI, PA.
Wait, that's exactly what happened! |