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remember: there are "professional" investors buying bonds w/ -10% real rate now

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grizzly supple incel
  05/09/21
...
maroon meetinghouse haunted graveyard
  05/09/21
ELI5
cerise concupiscible market
  05/09/21
...
Navy casino
  05/09/21
if you own a bond that is paying 3% coupon, and inflation is...
grizzly supple incel
  05/09/21
Are you saying scenario #2 is happening now?
Zombie-like whorehouse alpha
  05/09/21
it has already happened in input prices. see lumber doing a ...
grizzly supple incel
  05/09/21
Are the professional investors buying these bonds just retar...
Zombie-like whorehouse alpha
  05/09/21
in the US, roughly 80% of national debt is held by the publi...
grizzly supple incel
  05/09/21
This is pretty fucked. At some point, the bond yields rise b...
cerise concupiscible market
  05/09/21
bond yields rise from selling not buying
Navy casino
  05/09/21
yes exactly the fed's buying keeps bid looking reasonable. t...
grizzly supple incel
  05/09/21
Powell seems in over his head but acts like he isn’t
cerise concupiscible market
  05/09/21
powell isn't in charge of anything, he's just the unfortunat...
grizzly supple incel
  05/09/21
who is in charge?
maroon meetinghouse haunted graveyard
  05/09/21


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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:19 PM
Author: grizzly supple incel



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432544)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:20 PM
Author: maroon meetinghouse haunted graveyard



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432551)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:21 PM
Author: cerise concupiscible market

ELI5

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432552)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 11:21 PM
Author: Navy casino



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432556)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:24 PM
Author: grizzly supple incel

if you own a bond that is paying 3% coupon, and inflation is 2% like the CPI says, then your real rate is 1%

if you own a bond that is paying 3% coupon, but inflation is actually 15%, then your real rate is -12%. put another way, you are letting someone borrow your money in order to pay you back less money. factoring in the time value of money for your capital return, the bond is worthless.

$130 trillion+ in bonds are premised on the idea that scenario #1 is the case, not scenario #2.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432572)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:28 PM
Author: Zombie-like whorehouse alpha

Are you saying scenario #2 is happening now?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432601)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:29 PM
Author: grizzly supple incel

it has already happened in input prices. see lumber doing a 4x LTM.

austrian economics say that consumer prices are generally affected ~18 months after the monetary expansion

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432610)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:31 PM
Author: Zombie-like whorehouse alpha

Are the professional investors buying these bonds just retarded? Or do they know something we don't?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432625)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:35 PM
Author: grizzly supple incel

in the US, roughly 80% of national debt is held by the public. so mutual funds, pension funds, social security funds, military retirement funds, individuals, etc. so basically the average american is loaning the government money to fund its insanity, and will be rewarded with nothing

the fed increasingly holds a lot of debt because it's so garbage that nobody else wants to touch it. the fed is now doing $120 billion in treasury purchases PER MONTH in order to prop up the market and keep rates low

soverign nations have been increasingly dumping US treasuries, especially china/russia, which have been stockpiling gold

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432657)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:43 PM
Author: cerise concupiscible market

This is pretty fucked. At some point, the bond yields rise because investors bid them up, unless the fed just buys everything.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432699)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:44 PM
Author: Navy casino

bond yields rise from selling not buying

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432707)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:45 PM
Author: grizzly supple incel

yes exactly the fed's buying keeps bid looking reasonable. they are in an inescapable dilemma. either let rates rise, in which case the real estate, stock and bond market will collapse, or they continue to buy bonds which jacks up inflation

at some point they will have to initiate "yield curve control" which is basically them saying that rates of a certain duration are being frozen at X%, and they will print ANY amount of money to do that. at that point, all foreign countries can dump 100% of treasuries without losing any money. that is when hyperinflation will begin.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432714)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:46 PM
Author: cerise concupiscible market

Powell seems in over his head but acts like he isn’t

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432723)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:50 PM
Author: grizzly supple incel

powell isn't in charge of anything, he's just the unfortunate sap that is going to take the fall

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432735)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 11:51 PM
Author: maroon meetinghouse haunted graveyard

who is in charge?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4830640&forum_id=2#42432745)