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anybody following the Chinese RE implosion?
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Date: October 17th, 2021 2:03 PM Author: sadistic big private investor cliffs?
i know evergrande trading was halted on the HK exchange
hearing some rumors of it spreading to other RE firms
tyia |
Date: October 17th, 2021 2:57 PM Author: indecent church building No but I watched all the videos in that inane China video thread linked here. Jfc (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43286523) |
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Date: October 17th, 2021 4:08 PM Author: sadistic big private investor Link to the thread? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43286753) |
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Date: October 17th, 2021 7:53 PM Author: Coral Aromatic Kitchen Becky http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4943802&mc=35&forum_id=2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43287617) |
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Date: October 17th, 2021 7:52 PM Author: sadistic big private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43287613) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 10:27 AM Author: sadistic big private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43290071) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 10:40 AM Author: supple pearl school cafeteria selfie Yes. Several other firms are also in bad conditions. I think like 7 or 8 now have missed bond payments. Something like 20% of all defaults by $ amount in the past quarter have been in the real estate sector which is normally a very safe bet in China.
Worst off is that suppliers and contractors are not getting paid as well in addition to bond holders. Many of the suppliers then are having trouble doing work for other RE companies because they cant pay their own suppliers/workers/etc so other RE companies are having issues completing projects, which the delays are making people think those RE companies are at risk which results in fewer presales and less bank loans.
Its troubling but the most troubling part is that it is unclear if the ccp is letting a few RE developers get fucked because the CCP wants to punish those who take big financial risks or if the CCP knows this is going to be a huge thing and is trying to judge exactly how to fix/contain it. RE is 30% of their GDP which is crazy high compared to other big countries. They have enough vacant housing right now for like 120 million people and nearly a third of everything made in China is for building real estate. Oh and their working age population has been declining for years |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 10:42 AM Author: laughsome twinkling uncleanness 180 but why are they making payments on bones? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43290135) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 10:43 AM Author: Electric Mahogany National bro, u miss bone payments at ur own peril (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43290137) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 10:49 AM Author: laughsome twinkling uncleanness Fuck I don't think I've made even one (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43290174) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 10:48 AM Author: supple pearl school cafeteria selfie EDIT got it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43290164) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 10:50 AM Author: laughsome twinkling uncleanness ty where can I find more of your analysis? I will do my best to return the favor if there's anything you want to know about big pharma and Palantir. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43290178) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 9:26 PM Author: supple pearl school cafeteria selfie https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/china-property-defaults-risks-for-other-developers-pboc-on-evergrande.html
quick decent read. This isnt a 1 company problem and all these RE companies are supported by thousands of contractors doing work. These contractors work for multiple RE developers and many of the RE companies stopped paying them which is hurting their ability to work for the ones that do pay.
They are facing a potential recession driven by RE. Considering this is 80% of wealth for most chinese, it would be a big problem for them. Their inaction suggests they really know its not gonna be a big deal or that it will be a huge deal and they are figuring out a plan. |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 10:33 PM Author: laughsome twinkling uncleanness My china dood thinks the long knives are out for XJP and he'll be gone in March. Some important meeting is happening in november (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43294051) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 9:27 PM Author: exhilarant bat shit crazy jap Reminder: No one cares because everyone knows China has a command economy and they're only letting the dog off the leash for a short jaunt. Nothing is going to cascade, there will be no contagion, this is just the CCP sending a warning message to speculators. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43293757) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 9:28 PM Author: supple pearl school cafeteria selfie I forgot. A commend economy never failed before. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43293767) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 9:30 PM Author: exhilarant bat shit crazy jap Oh wow what a witty fucking retort. But the question you should be asking is: has a command economy ever failed because of a sectoral bubble leading to widespread contagion. And the answer is essentially "no." There are many things macroeconomies like China's suck at, but being able to control something like a property bubble isn't one of them. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43293777) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 9:33 PM Author: supple pearl school cafeteria selfie You are right. A commend economy can just throw enough money to make the problem go away. Its weird that free economies cant just throw enough money at problems to make them go away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43293799) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 9:35 PM Author: exhilarant bat shit crazy jap The toolbox that an economy like the chinks have to deal with this situation goes far beyond "throwing money" at it and goes to the essence of the difference between a free capital market and a place where you can be told "if you refuse to sell this we'll lock up your family." You continue to make weird and bad threshold fallacies in this discussion. htfh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43293808) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 9:50 PM Author: supple pearl school cafeteria selfie Oh yes. What can do they do 30% of the economy to both keep it moving forward and keep it from growing too big (which is already is and the ccp knows this hence their crakdown)? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43293863) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 10:00 PM Author: exhilarant bat shit crazy jap They can ... do exactly what they're doing, which is using this as a salutary lesson to discourage hubristic speculation while simultaneously assuring markets that they will exercise necessary tools to prevent collapse scenarios up to and including execution, no lie? Like, you're literally watching them do "it"--you're seeing the policy being implemented which may end up allowing a fag company or two to go under but with ultimate assurances of capital and price stability for the supermajority of the RE market so that they can prick the bubble a bit but continue to rely on RE significantly while they try to develop consumption more. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43293907) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 10:36 PM Author: laughsome twinkling uncleanness Investing in China is hubristic now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43294068) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 11:40 PM Author: Red lettuce Ray Dalio is leading the pack. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43294404) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 9:41 PM Author: Mewling flirting regret China's real estate is the mother of all bubbles. A hard landing would not surprise me. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43293834) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 9:51 PM Author: supple pearl school cafeteria selfie I see a soft landing in terms of pries (to maintain wealth) but a big drop in gdp growth from new construction. China will probably try to divert these workers into new mega projects of dubious value. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43293869) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 9:54 PM Author: Mewling flirting regret Chinese GDP has to continue growing, or bad things happen. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43293880) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 9:55 PM Author: supple pearl school cafeteria selfie workers need improvement in their lives. building a new condo building adds to GDP but the real value to the ccp is just to keep workers busy, keep bank loans running so wealth can be stored and made, etc. They can also keep GDP running by building massage bridges, railroads at losses, etc. Until eventually they cant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43293886) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 9:58 PM Author: Mewling flirting regret Exactly. I really like the idea of massage bridges, by the way. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43293896) |
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Date: October 18th, 2021 10:39 PM Author: aquamarine mental disorder abode Theres no explosion birdshit, everything is fine. CCP has it well under control. JFC at u freaks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4944067&forum_id=2#43294079) |