if japan had invaded russia far east during barbarosa germany would have won?
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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:02 PM Author: saffron trip pocket flask
Japan had no interest in attacking Russia whatsoever, so this question is a bit moot.
My understanding is that most lend-lease aid came to Russia via Arkhangelsk and Murmansk, which are both not too far from Finland. An invasion by Japan would have had no impact on this route. An invasion by Japan would also have had zero impact on the USSR's eastern front, since carrying the war into the underdeveloped Siberia wasteland would have been basically impossible for Japan. Japan could have taken Vladivostok and a few other bases in the Russian far east... and then what? I think that Stalin would have abandoned these lands in order to repel Germany if needed without much second thought.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536379) |
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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:05 PM Author: Olive autistic national messiness
i thought this answer on the 2nd link was interesting:
"Imperial Japan did in fact have supporters for its “Hokushin-ron” or northern road doctrine which viewed Manchuria and Siberia as being within Japan’s sphere of influence. This policy eventually lost much of it’s popularity among the military elite after the the Battles of Khalkhin Gol which ended in a Soviet victory. The Japanese then proceeded with the southern plan or “Nanshin-ron” which had it’s focus on the pacific and Southeast-Asia, culminating in the strike on pearl harbor and rapid Japanese advances across Southeast-Asia in 1941–1942.
Now, what if the Japanese had not been deterred by their defeat at Khalkin Gol but had instead opened up a second front against the Soviet Union soon after the opening battles of Operation Barbarossa? We know that the attack on the Soviet Union by Nazi Germany came as a shock to the mortified Japanese leaders, with the Foreign Minister Yosuke immediately urging for a supporting attack on the Soviets.
Lets assume that his calls are heeded and the Kwantung army requests for an extra 22 divisions totaling 850 thousand men including auxiliaries and the 1200 to 1800 aircraft in 3 air divisions are met. Now the kwantung army in 1941 had about 700 thousand men not including the Manchurian units available. Bolstered by reinforcements, the elite Kwantung army would have close to 2 million men consisting of the Japanese empire’s best troops.
The Soviets in contrast, had a paltry 431,581 personnel in the Far-eastern military district(FEMD). While the FEMD might have seemed like a walkover for the Japanese, the soviets would have mobilized an additional million men in the coming months as they did in our timeline. Now, the Soviets had planned before the war on an all-out defense of the Soviet-Manchurian border measuring 4,209.3 kilometers. This vast frontier was in my opinion impossible to hold against the more experienced and numerically-superior Imperial Japanese Army (IJA) and would have been doomed to a defeat in detail.
As you can see from the image above, the lifeline of the Soviet Far-East, the trans-Siberian railway, is for all practical purposes within spitting distance of the border. The IJA would have severed this all-important lifeline to the Soviet industrial and population centers in the west and would have left the FEMD without hope of resupply or reinforcement. Japan would then proceed with the leisurely task of mopping up the pockets of Soviet resistance and then settling into defensive positions around say lake baikal. The lack of infrastructure able to support the IJA in siberia would have ensured that the Japanese could not have threatened any targets of strategic importance to the Soviet union, aside from the pacific port of Vladivostok of course.
Lets assume that these operations are completed in around 4 months from mid-August ending in November just as the Germans are making their push towards Moscow proper. Now Japan’s greatest advantage, the isolation of the Soviet Far-East, is now her greatest disadvantage. The Soviet Far-East was way too lacking in industry or population to have any major deciding effect on the strategic outlook of the war in 1941 alone. Japan’s only hope was that the shock of it’s defeats in the east and west would cause Stalin or whoever was in power in the Kremlin to sue for a bitter peace.
Lets say that events happen as they did in our timeline, Operation Typhoon fails and the German advance is halted on the gates of Moscow and both sides prepare for a grueling battle of attrition. Only now does the occupation of the Far-East start to seriously hurt the Soviets. As the Japanese have obviously not struck at Pearl Harbor nor occupied French Indochina, the Axis is thus not yet at war with the industrial behemoth of the USA. The non-occupation of Indochina also helps Japan avoid the US oil embargo at least temporarily. This butterflies away American lend-lease aid to the Soviets. The fall of Vladivostok also removes yet another avenue for any discreet aid to the Soviets from the USA. The lack of any lend-lease threatens the Soviet Union with the grim prospect of starvation by 1942 after the loss of grain from the Ukraine.
In our timeline (shamelessly lifted from Wikipedia) the United States delivered to the Soviet Union from October 1, 1941 to May 31, 1945 the following: 427,284 trucks, 13,303 combat vehicles, 35,170 motorcycles, 2,328 ordnance service vehicles, 2,670,371 tons of petroleum products (gasoline and oil) or 57.8 percent of the High-octane aviation fuel, 4,478,116 tons of foodstuffs (canned meats, sugar, flour, salt, etc.), 1,911 steam locomotives, 66 Diesel locomotives, 9,920 flat cars, 1,000 dump cars, 120 tank cars, and 35 heavy machinery cars. The lack of so much vital equipment that it would have otherwise received further cripples the Soviets who are still reeling from the massive German onslaught. There is thus no Operation Uranus or Mars in the wake of Case Blue, the Wehrmacht’s drive to the Baku oilfields. The Sixth Army is never encircled, Stalingrad falls, the Soviets lose much of their petroleum and starvation takes hold. The Soviet state collapses by 1943 and a Greater Germany stretches from the Atlantic to the Ural mountains while Japan gobbles up much of Siberia. The British and the commonwealth once again face the German colossus alone and I believe they would have eventually brokered a deal with an ascendant Germany.
I now stand ready to defend my answer in the comments."
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536402) |
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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:24 PM Author: saffron trip pocket flask
Eh.
Japan and Russia fought a war in 1905. Japan destroyed Russia in naval combat, and did quite well in the land battles. And then, the peace that was struck was surprisingly reasonable for Russia (no war contribution, among other things). This is because Japan realized even then that further action in Russia would have been pointless. How does the tiny Japanese land army occupy Siberia? How does it hold it? And what is the purpose of it all?
Japan's plan all along was to plunder the natural resources of SE Asia, which it thought it needed in order to become a major colonial power. Fighting the USSR would have been a pointless distraction from that plan. And if the U.S. decided to strike against Japan (always a possibility in the early 1940s), having Japan's entire force tied up in Siberia would have been suicide.
Also, this poast is wrong about lend-lease. Again, Arkhangelsk and Murmansk were open for business.
Finally, Germany's only hoap of defeating the USSR was a decisive quick victory via blitzkrieg. A "grueling battle of attrition" with Russia is not a battle that any invader of Russia has ever won.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536524) |
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Date: November 30th, 2021 11:28 PM Author: Slate Racy Stock Car Theater Stage
Germany's Mongolian blitzkrieg tactics broke down w/ large supply lines like you mention - the ability of the Russian people to just pick up and move factories / people inward and endure suffering + the level of coercion Stalin was able to bring was something the Czars could've only dreamed of.
If they were 'true allies' and the timing was right who knows - but Hitler had to ask where Pearl Harbor was when the news broke...
I won't pretend to know anything definitively - the more you read about this topic it just seems foolish to bet against Russians here with stretched supply lines, winters, defensive advantages, vastness of land, fighting for home, and levels of coercion w/ stalin and ability of russian people to endure suffering and mobilize
edit: For example - Germany never built a single 4 engine bomber... they were incredible in border fights w/ neighbors but strategically not prepared to destroy their main enemy's means of production the way the allies were (although the german soldier on avg was of superior fighting quality) - there was a great statistical analysis by some Colonels in years after the war about this that some WaPo article from the 80s covered that was super interesting about the K:D ratios
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536864) |
Date: December 1st, 2021 12:14 AM Author: Passionate dilemma
Russia lost 4 million men dead and captured, in the first 6 months of the German invasion. If those misfortunes were combined with lend-lease from Vladivostok getting cut off and the burden of a second front, I think Russia would have lost the war in 1942. Germany would rule Europe.
Japan would still have to contend with a war in China supported by the US. Since Burma wasn't conquered and cut off in this hypo, lend-lease would have gone to China instead through southeast Asia. The Phillippines would have been reinforced by the US.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43537056) |
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