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if japan had invaded russia far east during barbarosa germany would have won?

blockading the russian port would have prevented lend/lease ...
Olive autistic national messiness
  11/30/21
interesting and very divided responses on (((quora))) htt...
Olive autistic national messiness
  11/30/21
Japan had no interest in attacking Russia whatsoever, so thi...
saffron trip pocket flask
  11/30/21
just under 47% of all Soviet L/L arrived at Vladivostok from...
Olive autistic national messiness
  11/30/21
i thought this answer on the 2nd link was interesting: &q...
Olive autistic national messiness
  11/30/21
Eh. Japan and Russia fought a war in 1905. Japan destroye...
saffron trip pocket flask
  11/30/21
By this time wasn't Germany already in charge of every colon...
Aggressive swashbuckling bawdyhouse main people
  11/30/21
It's always better to take over territories on your own than...
saffron trip pocket flask
  11/30/21
Germany's ideology put it on a collision course with the com...
Olive autistic national messiness
  11/30/21
It's not about ideology. It's about the cold, hard truth tha...
saffron trip pocket flask
  11/30/21
Moscow was able to be defended in part b/c the Siberian troo...
cracking church athletic conference
  11/30/21
Japan got their fucking asses kicked the few times they enga...
aquamarine hospital crotch
  11/30/21
Tcr.
peach twinkling uncleanness persian
  11/30/21
the point wouldn't necessarily have been to win but to keep ...
Olive autistic national messiness
  11/30/21
Do the Quora Indians go into this? There were some very one-...
aquamarine hospital crotch
  11/30/21
So peel off their fleet from engaging the US (which, was win...
peach twinkling uncleanness persian
  11/30/21
yes, the argument on quora is that if germany and japan acte...
Olive autistic national messiness
  11/30/21
History pro-tip: Germany was never close to victory. Soviet...
cracking church athletic conference
  11/30/21
many on quora disagree with you
Olive autistic national messiness
  11/30/21
I've read over 100 books re that war and that era. I'm pret...
cracking church athletic conference
  11/30/21
Yes, this is right. Barbarossa went better for Hitler than h...
saffron trip pocket flask
  11/30/21
Germany's Mongolian blitzkrieg tactics broke down w/ large s...
Slate Racy Stock Car Theater Stage
  11/30/21
Link
Aggressive swashbuckling bawdyhouse main people
  12/01/21
Japan was already overextended in China and fighting the US....
peach twinkling uncleanness persian
  11/30/21
japan could have invaded russia INSTEAD of the US war strate...
Olive autistic national messiness
  11/30/21
America was going to fuck Japan's shit one way or another. ...
cracking church athletic conference
  11/30/21
yes america was itching to fuck over japan by embargoing the...
Olive autistic national messiness
  11/30/21
Russia getting DPed by Germany and Japan would be the ration...
cracking church athletic conference
  11/30/21
If the Axis won, we’d have just done business with the...
Free-loading Cuckold Ceo
  12/01/21
Hitler had an unpublished sequel to Mein Kamph where he call...
Olive autistic national messiness
  12/01/21
Am I being asked to imagine a scenario where Japan is fieldi...
Aggressive swashbuckling bawdyhouse main people
  11/30/21
no, a scenario where Japan cuts off Russia's railways, keeps...
Olive autistic national messiness
  11/30/21
Seems smarter than what Japan actually ended up doing.
Aggressive swashbuckling bawdyhouse main people
  11/30/21
...
Olive autistic national messiness
  11/30/21
oh what an 'ally'
Arousing Rambunctious Stead
  11/30/21
...
Slate Racy Stock Car Theater Stage
  11/30/21
Russia lost 4 million men dead and captured, in the first 6 ...
Passionate dilemma
  12/01/21
...
Olive autistic national messiness
  12/01/21


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Date: November 30th, 2021 9:48 PM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness

blockading the russian port would have prevented lend/lease assistance from the US & japanese ground invasion, even a shitty one, would have kept far east russian soldiers from reinforcing moscow

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536315)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 9:55 PM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness

interesting and very divided responses on (((quora)))

https://www.quora.com/If-Japan-would-have-invaded-Russia-during-WW2-instead-of-attacking-the-US-what-would-have-happend

https://www.quora.com/What-if-Japan-helped-with-Operation-Barbarossa

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536345)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:02 PM
Author: saffron trip pocket flask

Japan had no interest in attacking Russia whatsoever, so this question is a bit moot.

My understanding is that most lend-lease aid came to Russia via Arkhangelsk and Murmansk, which are both not too far from Finland. An invasion by Japan would have had no impact on this route. An invasion by Japan would also have had zero impact on the USSR's eastern front, since carrying the war into the underdeveloped Siberia wasteland would have been basically impossible for Japan. Japan could have taken Vladivostok and a few other bases in the Russian far east... and then what? I think that Stalin would have abandoned these lands in order to repel Germany if needed without much second thought.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536379)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:04 PM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness

just under 47% of all Soviet L/L arrived at Vladivostok from the USA from what i've read.

stalin was ultra paranoid about a japan attack & only removed his troops to assist in moscow & stalingrad after he got confirmation from his spy in japan that japan wouldn't be attacking

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536399)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:05 PM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness

i thought this answer on the 2nd link was interesting:

"Imperial Japan did in fact have supporters for its “Hokushin-ron” or northern road doctrine which viewed Manchuria and Siberia as being within Japan’s sphere of influence. This policy eventually lost much of it’s popularity among the military elite after the the Battles of Khalkhin Gol which ended in a Soviet victory. The Japanese then proceeded with the southern plan or “Nanshin-ron” which had it’s focus on the pacific and Southeast-Asia, culminating in the strike on pearl harbor and rapid Japanese advances across Southeast-Asia in 1941–1942.

Now, what if the Japanese had not been deterred by their defeat at Khalkin Gol but had instead opened up a second front against the Soviet Union soon after the opening battles of Operation Barbarossa? We know that the attack on the Soviet Union by Nazi Germany came as a shock to the mortified Japanese leaders, with the Foreign Minister Yosuke immediately urging for a supporting attack on the Soviets.

Lets assume that his calls are heeded and the Kwantung army requests for an extra 22 divisions totaling 850 thousand men including auxiliaries and the 1200 to 1800 aircraft in 3 air divisions are met. Now the kwantung army in 1941 had about 700 thousand men not including the Manchurian units available. Bolstered by reinforcements, the elite Kwantung army would have close to 2 million men consisting of the Japanese empire’s best troops.

The Soviets in contrast, had a paltry 431,581 personnel in the Far-eastern military district(FEMD). While the FEMD might have seemed like a walkover for the Japanese, the soviets would have mobilized an additional million men in the coming months as they did in our timeline. Now, the Soviets had planned before the war on an all-out defense of the Soviet-Manchurian border measuring 4,209.3 kilometers. This vast frontier was in my opinion impossible to hold against the more experienced and numerically-superior Imperial Japanese Army (IJA) and would have been doomed to a defeat in detail.

As you can see from the image above, the lifeline of the Soviet Far-East, the trans-Siberian railway, is for all practical purposes within spitting distance of the border. The IJA would have severed this all-important lifeline to the Soviet industrial and population centers in the west and would have left the FEMD without hope of resupply or reinforcement. Japan would then proceed with the leisurely task of mopping up the pockets of Soviet resistance and then settling into defensive positions around say lake baikal. The lack of infrastructure able to support the IJA in siberia would have ensured that the Japanese could not have threatened any targets of strategic importance to the Soviet union, aside from the pacific port of Vladivostok of course.

Lets assume that these operations are completed in around 4 months from mid-August ending in November just as the Germans are making their push towards Moscow proper. Now Japan’s greatest advantage, the isolation of the Soviet Far-East, is now her greatest disadvantage. The Soviet Far-East was way too lacking in industry or population to have any major deciding effect on the strategic outlook of the war in 1941 alone. Japan’s only hope was that the shock of it’s defeats in the east and west would cause Stalin or whoever was in power in the Kremlin to sue for a bitter peace.

Lets say that events happen as they did in our timeline, Operation Typhoon fails and the German advance is halted on the gates of Moscow and both sides prepare for a grueling battle of attrition. Only now does the occupation of the Far-East start to seriously hurt the Soviets. As the Japanese have obviously not struck at Pearl Harbor nor occupied French Indochina, the Axis is thus not yet at war with the industrial behemoth of the USA. The non-occupation of Indochina also helps Japan avoid the US oil embargo at least temporarily. This butterflies away American lend-lease aid to the Soviets. The fall of Vladivostok also removes yet another avenue for any discreet aid to the Soviets from the USA. The lack of any lend-lease threatens the Soviet Union with the grim prospect of starvation by 1942 after the loss of grain from the Ukraine.

In our timeline (shamelessly lifted from Wikipedia) the United States delivered to the Soviet Union from October 1, 1941 to May 31, 1945 the following: 427,284 trucks, 13,303 combat vehicles, 35,170 motorcycles, 2,328 ordnance service vehicles, 2,670,371 tons of petroleum products (gasoline and oil) or 57.8 percent of the High-octane aviation fuel, 4,478,116 tons of foodstuffs (canned meats, sugar, flour, salt, etc.), 1,911 steam locomotives, 66 Diesel locomotives, 9,920 flat cars, 1,000 dump cars, 120 tank cars, and 35 heavy machinery cars. The lack of so much vital equipment that it would have otherwise received further cripples the Soviets who are still reeling from the massive German onslaught. There is thus no Operation Uranus or Mars in the wake of Case Blue, the Wehrmacht’s drive to the Baku oilfields. The Sixth Army is never encircled, Stalingrad falls, the Soviets lose much of their petroleum and starvation takes hold. The Soviet state collapses by 1943 and a Greater Germany stretches from the Atlantic to the Ural mountains while Japan gobbles up much of Siberia. The British and the commonwealth once again face the German colossus alone and I believe they would have eventually brokered a deal with an ascendant Germany.

I now stand ready to defend my answer in the comments."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536402)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:24 PM
Author: saffron trip pocket flask

Eh.

Japan and Russia fought a war in 1905. Japan destroyed Russia in naval combat, and did quite well in the land battles. And then, the peace that was struck was surprisingly reasonable for Russia (no war contribution, among other things). This is because Japan realized even then that further action in Russia would have been pointless. How does the tiny Japanese land army occupy Siberia? How does it hold it? And what is the purpose of it all?

Japan's plan all along was to plunder the natural resources of SE Asia, which it thought it needed in order to become a major colonial power. Fighting the USSR would have been a pointless distraction from that plan. And if the U.S. decided to strike against Japan (always a possibility in the early 1940s), having Japan's entire force tied up in Siberia would have been suicide.

Also, this poast is wrong about lend-lease. Again, Arkhangelsk and Murmansk were open for business.

Finally, Germany's only hoap of defeating the USSR was a decisive quick victory via blitzkrieg. A "grueling battle of attrition" with Russia is not a battle that any invader of Russia has ever won.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536524)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:50 PM
Author: Aggressive swashbuckling bawdyhouse main people

By this time wasn't Germany already in charge of every colonial power except US and UK? The deal could be Japan gets French, Dutch and Spanish/Portuguese colonies after the allies are finished off.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536699)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:58 PM
Author: saffron trip pocket flask

It's always better to take over territories on your own than to have a "deal" with a third party that it may or may not honor after the war. Especially so when the third party in question is Hitler, who for example broke a non-aggression pact with Stalin when he invaded the USSR in 1941.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536737)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 11:00 PM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness

Germany's ideology put it on a collision course with the communists , hell Stalin could have invaded Germany a couple months later, all their troops were set up in offensive formations on the border. there was no such issue with Japan and Germany

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536745)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 11:06 PM
Author: saffron trip pocket flask

It's not about ideology. It's about the cold, hard truth that unless your troops are occupying some territory, there is a huge risk that this territory will never be handed over to you no matter what some pre-war agreement may have said.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536767)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:06 PM
Author: cracking church athletic conference

Moscow was able to be defended in part b/c the Siberian troops got to the front in time after being repositioned.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536410)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:05 PM
Author: aquamarine hospital crotch

Japan got their fucking asses kicked the few times they engaged Russia in that war

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536403)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:06 PM
Author: peach twinkling uncleanness persian

Tcr.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536411)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:07 PM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness

the point wouldn't necessarily have been to win but to keep the soviet troops pinned down and to sever the railway connections -- and more importantly to blockade the port from receiving lend/lease

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536413)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:11 PM
Author: aquamarine hospital crotch

Do the Quora Indians go into this? There were some very one-sided engagements

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536451)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:11 PM
Author: peach twinkling uncleanness persian

So peel off their fleet from engaging the US (which, was winning) and send them to fight the USSR pacific fleet which was largely ignoring them?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536452)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:13 PM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness

yes, the argument on quora is that if germany and japan acted as a real alliance instead of an alliance in name only they would have coordinated their attack on russia and won, given how razor thin close germany was to victory on its own.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536461)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:17 PM
Author: cracking church athletic conference

History pro-tip: Germany was never close to victory. Soviets practiced defense in depth, giving up large swaths of land was part of that strategy. Even if Moscow and Stalingrad fell the Soviets would have kept on fighting and probably winning. The supply lines are simply too great and Germany was being outproduced even at the start of Operation Barbarossa, not even counting all the Lend/Lease help.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536483)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:18 PM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness

many on quora disagree with you

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536488)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:19 PM
Author: cracking church athletic conference

I've read over 100 books re that war and that era. I'm pretty sure I'm right.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536492)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:27 PM
Author: saffron trip pocket flask

Yes, this is right. Barbarossa went better for Hitler than he could have dared dream, and he still did not accomplish any of his goals. No Moscow, no Soviet oil fields, no quick victory. Even if Moscow fell, the Red Army would have just retreated into the vast Siberian wasteland, striking at the German supply lines while the Russian partisans sabotaged its operations. The end result would have been Napoleon 2.0.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536546)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 11:28 PM
Author: Slate Racy Stock Car Theater Stage

Germany's Mongolian blitzkrieg tactics broke down w/ large supply lines like you mention - the ability of the Russian people to just pick up and move factories / people inward and endure suffering + the level of coercion Stalin was able to bring was something the Czars could've only dreamed of.

If they were 'true allies' and the timing was right who knows - but Hitler had to ask where Pearl Harbor was when the news broke...

I won't pretend to know anything definitively - the more you read about this topic it just seems foolish to bet against Russians here with stretched supply lines, winters, defensive advantages, vastness of land, fighting for home, and levels of coercion w/ stalin and ability of russian people to endure suffering and mobilize

edit: For example - Germany never built a single 4 engine bomber... they were incredible in border fights w/ neighbors but strategically not prepared to destroy their main enemy's means of production the way the allies were (although the german soldier on avg was of superior fighting quality) - there was a great statistical analysis by some Colonels in years after the war about this that some WaPo article from the 80s covered that was super interesting about the K:D ratios

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536864)



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Date: December 1st, 2021 12:07 AM
Author: Aggressive swashbuckling bawdyhouse main people

Link

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43537040)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:08 PM
Author: peach twinkling uncleanness persian

Japan was already overextended in China and fighting the US. A three front war with the USSR would have been unthinkable to them.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536423)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:09 PM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness

japan could have invaded russia INSTEAD of the US war strategy. they wouldn't have done both.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536430)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:10 PM
Author: cracking church athletic conference

America was going to fuck Japan's shit one way or another. Pearl Harbor was just a convenient excuse, but the two sides were at each other's throats for a long time prior to open conflict.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536446)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:12 PM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness

yes america was itching to fuck over japan by embargoing their access to oil, but i disagree pearl harbor was a convenient excuse, without such an obvious casus belli the isolationist american citizens would have been very reluctant to go to war.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536454)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:14 PM
Author: cracking church athletic conference

Russia getting DPed by Germany and Japan would be the rationale. At that point all of Europe, Asia and Africa would be at risk of being divided into Axis fiefdoms and prevent America from making money.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536465)



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Date: December 1st, 2021 12:03 AM
Author: Free-loading Cuckold Ceo

If the Axis won, we’d have just done business with them.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43537023)



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Date: December 1st, 2021 12:04 AM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness

Hitler had an unpublished sequel to Mein Kamph where he calls for war with America after conquering Europe. Also the Nazi blood and sand ideology was always at odds with Jewish controlled, money obsessed America.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43537029)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:33 PM
Author: Aggressive swashbuckling bawdyhouse main people

Am I being asked to imagine a scenario where Japan is fielding large numbers of modern tanks? Where is Japan getting its oil? I don't understand this talk of Japan coming back for round 2 after Khalkhin Gol.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536584)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:35 PM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness

no, a scenario where Japan cuts off Russia's railways, keeps Siberian troops bogged down instead of going to reinforce Stalingrad and Moscow, and blockades Vladivostok from receiving lend-lease, all at the same time as the Barbarosa invasion. there was no way for Japan to invade and conquer the whole far east. no Indochina invasion and no Pearl Harbor.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536591)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:39 PM
Author: Aggressive swashbuckling bawdyhouse main people

Seems smarter than what Japan actually ended up doing.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536616)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 10:52 PM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536714)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 11:10 PM
Author: Arousing Rambunctious Stead

oh what an 'ally'

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536785)



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Date: November 30th, 2021 11:32 PM
Author: Slate Racy Stock Car Theater Stage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43536892)



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Date: December 1st, 2021 12:14 AM
Author: Passionate dilemma

Russia lost 4 million men dead and captured, in the first 6 months of the German invasion. If those misfortunes were combined with lend-lease from Vladivostok getting cut off and the burden of a second front, I think Russia would have lost the war in 1942. Germany would rule Europe.

Japan would still have to contend with a war in China supported by the US. Since Burma wasn't conquered and cut off in this hypo, lend-lease would have gone to China instead through southeast Asia. The Phillippines would have been reinforced by the US.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43537056)



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Date: December 1st, 2021 12:16 AM
Author: Olive autistic national messiness



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4976033&forum_id=2#43537061)