China is actually fucked in the short/medium term
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:41 PM Author: Insanely creepy haunting lay
The Chinese economy has relied on sectors like real estate development to increase its GDP growth, but the problem is that these bubble assets are unproductive and are setting the economy up for longer term failure. The CCP recognizes this and is trying to let the developers fail/stabilize prices, but that itself necessitates harsh hits to growth and rebalancing. They have already started backing away from it.
Combine that with a rapidly aging population sapping dynamism, available workers, and so on. Their GDP growth miracle has very little time left before a harsh reckoning.
This will cause China to become more belligerent so the CCP can maintain control in the face of tepid growth.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573665) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:52 PM Author: Histrionic tanning salon
it doesnt matter retard cause chinks still take care of their parents in old age so the safety net insanity of western countries doesnt apply as much
stop talking shit abt china
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573734) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 3:21 PM Author: Histrionic tanning salon
the local leaders elect the higher ones and so on, the local leaders at bottom are elected by the ppl, everyone is accountable to the ppl's vote U FAGGOT
as if US "democracy" holds anyone accountable, idiot
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43574274) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 2:16 PM Author: hateful amber native
Dec. 7, 2021
Updated 11:21 a.m. ET
HONG KONG — For months, as a troubled property company called China Evergrande spooked global markets with its financial problems, Beijing sat on the sidelines.
Now, the government is taking a more hands-on role.
Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer, said officials from several state-backed institutions had joined a risk committee that will help the company to restructure itself. The committee, led by Evergrande’s founder, Xu Jiayin, will “play an important role in mitigating and eliminating future risks,” the company said in a filing late on Monday.
The formation of a committee with an apparent government imprimatur reassured investors who had worried about the potential impact, in China and beyond, of a chaotic Evergrande collapse. Its huge real estate empire includes millions of apartments in hundreds of Chinese cities, but Evergrande also has more than $300 billion in obligations it needs to pay back — and perhaps even more off the books.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573918) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 2:19 PM Author: Talented indigo bbw
https://archive.md/1CwOd
Another, subtler form of support for the economy is purchases of land rights by local government financing vehicles. LGFVs (state-owned enterprises that fund public projects) are filling the void in local budgets left by cash-strapped developers, who have pared back land purchases. As reported in Caixin Global last week:
LGFVs have bought more land use rights nationwide starting the third quarter when the cash crunch at some private property developers worsened, and in some places these vehicles became the major bidders. From July to November 15, LGFVs bought 13.38% of land parcels by value across the country, up 4.38 percentage points from the January-to-June period, according to calculations by brokerage Zhongtai Securities.
Here is Michael Pettis of Peking University discussing these moves on Twitter:
These LGFVs are controlled by local governments and borrow under their guarantees, so that this effectively means that local governments are borrowing from the banks and treating the proceeds as if they were revenues. I am surprised this is allowed, but I guess local governments have little choice if they can’t otherwise sell enough land to meet revenue needs.
But this represents a doubling down on the property sector. Why? Because if the property market revives, and prices continue to rise, the LGFVs can then sell the land on and make a profit. But if the property sector doesn’t revive, the LGFVs will be sitting on losses on which local governments will have to make good.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573937)
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:05 AM Author: hateful amber native
I've heard the "window closing" narrative a few times but I think those people have no idea what they are talking about. Two things specifically are not well understood or openly acknowledged by people in DC foreign policy.
1. China has an average IQ of 100. This means barring serious misgovernment it will become a rich country.
2. The Israel Lobby is extremely powerful and will get the Iran War they have long wanted. It's going to hurt the US a lot and actually open the window for China even more.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576645) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:50 AM Author: hateful amber native
"After decades of research, Mr Rozelle and Ms Hell present some startling data. Their team gave an iq-like test to thousands of rural Chinese toddlers. They found that more than 50% were cognitively delayed and unlikely to reach an iq of 90 (in a typical population, only 16% score so poorly). There were several reasons for this.
Half of rural babies are undernourished. Caregivers (often illiterate grandmothers) cram them with rice, noodles and steamed buns, not realising that they also need micronutrients. Studies in 2016 and 2017 found that a quarter of rural children in central and western China suffer from anaemia (lack of iron), which makes it hard for them to concentrate in school. Two-fifths of rural children in parts of southern China have intestinal worms, which sap their energy. A third of rural 11- and 12-year-olds have poor vision but no glasses, so struggle to read their schoolbooks."
That's incredibly bad policy and results. But is it enough to prevent them from becoming a rich country?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576756) |
Date: December 9th, 2021 9:14 PM Author: Insanely creepy haunting lay
evergrande default
tik tock
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43585860) |
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