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China is actually fucked in the short/medium term
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:41 PM Author: federal appetizing fanboi therapy The Chinese economy has relied on sectors like real estate development to increase its GDP growth, but the problem is that these bubble assets are unproductive and are setting the economy up for longer term failure. The CCP recognizes this and is trying to let the developers fail/stabilize prices, but that itself necessitates harsh hits to growth and rebalancing. They have already started backing away from it.
Combine that with a rapidly aging population sapping dynamism, available workers, and so on. Their GDP growth miracle has very little time left before a harsh reckoning.
This will cause China to become more belligerent so the CCP can maintain control in the face of tepid growth. |
Date: December 7th, 2021 1:42 PM Author: beady-eyed disrespectful kitty no (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573669) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:43 PM Author: federal appetizing fanboi therapy Explain your reasoning. I don't see an easy way out of this trap. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573676) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:46 PM Author: Stimulating yapping school cafeteria fortuitous meteor Yes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573699) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:47 PM Author: bipolar heaven BREAKING NEWS YA'LL: CINA BE FURKED ACCORDING TO MY GIRLFRIEND MEI-WEI CHINGCHONG (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573706) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:12 AM Author: curious slap-happy principal's office alpha How dare you sir.
It’s Mei Wei Ching Chong-Goldberg |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:48 PM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole The median age in China and the US is 38 years. But whites (main taxpayers) have a median age of 44 years. China doesn't have horrible demographics. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573710) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:50 PM Author: federal appetizing fanboi therapy you are an idiot. china is aging a lot faster than the united states, they caught up to us and will now begin to pass the us due to immigration and other structural factors. more to the point though, we are already a rich economy. it is quite different. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573722) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:52 PM Author: bipolar heaven it doesnt matter retard cause chinks still take care of their parents in old age so the safety net insanity of western countries doesnt apply as much
stop talking shit abt china |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:55 PM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole The social safety net is barebones in China. That means taxes aren't going to be raised to take care of the aging. Old people also can't vote or go out onto the streets. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573755) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:55 PM Author: bipolar heaven ??? jfc so retarded i cannot reply (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573759) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 10:43 PM Author: Stimulating yapping school cafeteria fortuitous meteor C’mon man
Every poster who’s lived in China especially realizes how delusional your hot takes on china are |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:55 PM Author: federal appetizing fanboi therapy It matters a lot for economic growth actually, you are also a moron (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573763) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:53 PM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole Do you have data? What's going to be the median age in China in 2040 compared to US? And most importantly will the median age for whites be over 50 in 2040? It does a country absolutely no good to have a relatively young population with few working-age whites. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573743) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:56 PM Author: bipolar heaven the 7% Asian pop in US prob pays as much in taxes as half the bridshit pop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573766) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:56 PM Author: federal appetizing fanboi therapy google it moron (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573767) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:56 PM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole Then you're just talking out of your ass. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573775) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:58 PM Author: federal appetizing fanboi therapy Nope, this is accepted by everyone. It's a combination of immigration and a relatively high birthrate. China's birthrate crated awhile ago and is probably lower than the official statistics say. The party has tried to raise it but so far it is not working. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573785) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 2:08 PM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole OK the differences in immigration would surely slow down population aging in the US. But it doesn't help the US to in 20 years have demographics below 50% white with the median age of whites in the late 40s. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573870) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 10:39 PM Author: vibrant incel If China’s median age is 38 they are FUCKed given the 1 child policy means there are 2 parents and 4 grandparents for every person under 30 more or less. You dumb fuck. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576349) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:08 AM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole Fucked means high taxes to pay for pensions and healthcare for old people. That will be a drag on growth. But in China the old people can't vote. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576650) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 1:53 PM Author: Sepia Spectacular Pozpig Locus (Gordon G. Chang) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573741) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 2:00 PM Author: Outnumbered walnut school internal respiration Why do Democrats want to spend trillions of dollars on welfare programs? To appease their voters/buy new voters. Why did Xi/the CCP steal from the rich to give to the poor? Also to appease the masses, but people in China don't vote, so what gives?? What exactly is Xi worried about that he's destroying entire industries, disappearing billionaires, etc. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573805) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 2:02 PM Author: federal appetizing fanboi therapy a combination of the CCP elites being true believers in insane ideas and a desperate fear of losing control of the masses (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573824) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 2:07 PM Author: bipolar heaven Chinese vote u dumb moron, at the local level. And ljl at u now defending GC, ohhhhh how dare Xi fuk over big business and billionaires!! the horro (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573862) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 2:10 PM Author: Outnumbered walnut school internal respiration Anyone who defends Chinse "voting" is truly retarded about China.
Leaders don't use political capital for no reason, bro. Why would he piss off a certain group of people? Let me know when you figure it out. |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 3:21 PM Author: bipolar heaven the local leaders elect the higher ones and so on, the local leaders at bottom are elected by the ppl, everyone is accountable to the ppl's vote U FAGGOT
as if US "democracy" holds anyone accountable, idiot |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 10:46 PM Author: Stimulating yapping school cafeteria fortuitous meteor 🤪 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576385) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 10:45 PM Author: Stimulating yapping school cafeteria fortuitous meteor An exiled Indian man spreading delusional propaganda for a communist regime that will never accept him, why? 🤡 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576382) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 2:10 PM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole Younger people can go out into the streets. Taxes aren't going to be raised to pay pensions. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573880) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 2:11 PM Author: Shimmering stain I think the risks are overstated. Xi Jinping is showing real leadership on tackling these parts of their economy. If we had handled early 2008 the way they handled Evergreen, we'd be in a better situation right now. That alone gives me confidence they'll figure it out. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573892) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 2:16 PM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole Dec. 7, 2021 Updated 11:21 a.m. ET HONG KONG — For months, as a troubled property company called China Evergrande spooked global markets with its financial problems, Beijing sat on the sidelines.
Now, the government is taking a more hands-on role.
Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer, said officials from several state-backed institutions had joined a risk committee that will help the company to restructure itself. The committee, led by Evergrande’s founder, Xu Jiayin, will “play an important role in mitigating and eliminating future risks,” the company said in a filing late on Monday.
The formation of a committee with an apparent government imprimatur reassured investors who had worried about the potential impact, in China and beyond, of a chaotic Evergrande collapse. Its huge real estate empire includes millions of apartments in hundreds of Chinese cities, but Evergrande also has more than $300 billion in obligations it needs to pay back — and perhaps even more off the books. |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 2:19 PM Author: Outnumbered walnut school internal respiration https://archive.md/1CwOd
Another, subtler form of support for the economy is purchases of land rights by local government financing vehicles. LGFVs (state-owned enterprises that fund public projects) are filling the void in local budgets left by cash-strapped developers, who have pared back land purchases. As reported in Caixin Global last week:
LGFVs have bought more land use rights nationwide starting the third quarter when the cash crunch at some private property developers worsened, and in some places these vehicles became the major bidders. From July to November 15, LGFVs bought 13.38% of land parcels by value across the country, up 4.38 percentage points from the January-to-June period, according to calculations by brokerage Zhongtai Securities.
Here is Michael Pettis of Peking University discussing these moves on Twitter:
These LGFVs are controlled by local governments and borrow under their guarantees, so that this effectively means that local governments are borrowing from the banks and treating the proceeds as if they were revenues. I am surprised this is allowed, but I guess local governments have little choice if they can’t otherwise sell enough land to meet revenue needs.
But this represents a doubling down on the property sector. Why? Because if the property market revives, and prices continue to rise, the LGFVs can then sell the land on and make a profit. But if the property sector doesn’t revive, the LGFVs will be sitting on losses on which local governments will have to make good.
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Date: December 7th, 2021 2:25 PM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole Pettis is another one of the experts who made predictions in 2012 or earlier of a great stagnation in China that never happened. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43573964) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 3:34 PM Author: Laughsome Amber Cruise Ship Skinny Woman https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2021/01/21/the-biggest-obstacle-to-chinas-rise-is-struggling-rural-children (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43574323) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 4:47 PM Author: Outnumbered walnut school internal respiration Fucking 1800000. Also, all these rural children grew up away from their parents b/c dad was working construction in Africa and mom was delivering food to princelings in the capital. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43574721) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 4:56 PM Author: Pink self-centered gay wizard people have been predicting the 'imminent' collapse of china since the tienanmen square protests in '89. somehow, it never seems to actually happen. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43574755) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 5:21 PM Author: Slimy Theater Stage I remember last year some poasters were convinced that bigass dam would crack open and kill 50 million people lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43574849) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 6:51 PM Author: federal appetizing fanboi therapy I didn't say the state would collapse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43575195) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 5:48 PM Author: scarlet address liquid oxygen Facism hasn’t worked since the printing press was invented (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43574931) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 5:56 PM Author: adulterous plaza This is true. We should also all be frightened of this because this scenario is most likely to result in China starting a horrible war that kills a whole lot of people - the CCP feels under pressure at home, and sees its window of claiming world influence closing, so it starts shit that ends with a lot of misery. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43574957) |
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Date: December 7th, 2021 10:47 PM Author: Stimulating yapping school cafeteria fortuitous meteor Where can we hide , Oliver? South America ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576392) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:05 AM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole I've heard the "window closing" narrative a few times but I think those people have no idea what they are talking about. Two things specifically are not well understood or openly acknowledged by people in DC foreign policy.
1. China has an average IQ of 100. This means barring serious misgovernment it will become a rich country.
2. The Israel Lobby is extremely powerful and will get the Iran War they have long wanted. It's going to hurt the US a lot and actually open the window for China even more. |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:43 AM Author: 180 opaque french chef international law enforcement agency Their team gave an IQ-like test to thousands of rural Chinese toddlers. They found that more than 50% were cognitively delayed and unlikely to reach an IQ of 90 (in a typical population, only 16% score so poorly). They make up two-thirds of the total.
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:46 AM Author: adulterous plaza Right. China carefully controls who gets to do IQ tests that go into “national” statistics and educational achievement scores. Malnourished rurals don’t get tested, it’s all kids at elite Shanghai high schools. Their national IQ scores are fraudlies just like their economic statistics and their china virus coverups. Which doesn’t reduce the problems the US faces with 10s of millions of squat Mayans flooding the schools. |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:50 AM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole "After decades of research, Mr Rozelle and Ms Hell present some startling data. Their team gave an iq-like test to thousands of rural Chinese toddlers. They found that more than 50% were cognitively delayed and unlikely to reach an iq of 90 (in a typical population, only 16% score so poorly). There were several reasons for this.
Half of rural babies are undernourished. Caregivers (often illiterate grandmothers) cram them with rice, noodles and steamed buns, not realising that they also need micronutrients. Studies in 2016 and 2017 found that a quarter of rural children in central and western China suffer from anaemia (lack of iron), which makes it hard for them to concentrate in school. Two-fifths of rural children in parts of southern China have intestinal worms, which sap their energy. A third of rural 11- and 12-year-olds have poor vision but no glasses, so struggle to read their schoolbooks."
That's incredibly bad policy and results. But is it enough to prevent them from becoming a rich country? |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:53 AM Author: 180 opaque french chef international law enforcement agency 40% of their children are LEGIT RETARDED and that just counting the rural ones. Urban still has some dumb fucks as well. Assuming the 16% normal figure is true for urban, that means more than 45% of the chinese child population is on pace to be LEGIT RETARDED.
You think a country can be rich when having 45% of its population as LEGIT RETARDED? |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:58 AM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole It would be much better to figure out what the average national IQ will be. If it's low 90s that would be very bad. Mid-90s would be bad. High 90s would mean enough for the first world. 100 would mean nearly certain of becoming rich. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576774) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 1:00 AM Author: adulterous plaza Their official score is about 100. But this is from carefully selected test subjects (see my post just above). I put their real national score including all the provincial and rurals at maybe 90: still higher than India and the middle east, but well under the West or Japan. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576781) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 1:04 AM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole In Becker's IQ database, they put China's national average IQ at 103. https://viewoniq.org/?page_id=9 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576789) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 1:06 AM Author: adulterous plaza Right, and I do not believe that number for a second. It is well known that in China these statistics are juiced by control of who the test subjects are. Nobody is testing anybody in the provinces and villages, at least not for these “national” statistics for foreign release. What China does is the equivalent of testing the IQ of everyone at Bronx Science High and then proclaiming that result to be the national IQ |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 1:12 AM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole There is a huge difference between 90 and 103. I do not think a 90 average IQ country is anywhere capable of getting to where China is currently. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576804) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 1:16 AM Author: adulterous plaza Agreed about that difference. But China’s national income is about the same level as Mexico’s right now, and their growth is slowing a LOT despite growth being juiced since 2008 in ways that dwarfs US “stimulus”. I don’t think they get beyond middle income level, ever. Edit: I think you are probably overestimating “where China is currently”. |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:07 AM Author: glassy new version shitlib Vastly more likely that the repugnant and retarded U.S. defense establishment starts a bullshit war than that China does. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576648) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:11 AM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole The defense establishment wants a war against Russia. The Israel lobby wants a war against Iran. Although China is talked about most, it's actually in 3rd place. But will America want a war with China after Iran and Russia? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576655) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:23 AM Author: glassy new version shitlib Probably not after we lose to both of the other two. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576696) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:29 AM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole I can't imagine losing to Iran but if several thousand men lose their lives for a pointless victory, no one is going to want to try another war for 10-20 years. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576718) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:36 AM Author: glassy new version shitlib That's really what I mean. Establishment would get the war it wants promising a total walkover and instead 4k U.S. troops die in a year or something and we bail because we don't have the stomach for an occupation. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576732) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:16 AM Author: Pungent zombie-like hospital marketing idea Everything you said applies to the US with even worse implications for our future (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576670) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:30 AM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole Replace aging population with aging white population for the US. Who the fuck doesn't understand a relatively young population with a median age of 50 for whites is really bad news? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576724) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 12:43 AM Author: adulterous plaza I’m painfully aware (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576744) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 1:05 AM Author: curious slap-happy principal's office alpha China is not as fucked as the US but still wont be able to overcome their debt problems or their women not having kids issue. It'll be a mediocre middle-income country. Their size creates aggregation benefits that will give them outsized geopolitical power. But it'll mask the fact that the country will basically just be a large Thailand in terms of innovation, lifestyle and culture (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576792) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 1:08 AM Author: adulterous plaza That’s my expectation too (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576797) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 1:10 AM Author: Bearded motley telephone prole My prediction is China will get to the level of the Czech Republic and stagnate. US will also decline but stay in the top 10 of GDP per capita. That puts China at 50% of what the US is per capita. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43576802) |
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Date: December 8th, 2021 1:17 AM Author: curious slap-happy principal's office alpha People here forget how difficult it is for the average nowag to have the same kind of opportunities like in the West. Unless you're a govt-connected crook or a top 1% nowag genius, its a crushing Hunger/Squid game to have a decent lifestyle. Even a 100IQ prole in Europe is living better than a chink. The former is working 35 hours a week with bennies, drinking wine and fucking thin women. The latter is pulling biglaw hours for a tiny apartment, <><><> of fucked up gender dynamics & Azn marriage expectations, and living hand to mouth.
The only reason it works is because most of the guys are autistic bugs who dont mind grinding away into oblivion for their dream of having a chance to land a leftover Tinder 3. |
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Date: December 9th, 2021 9:14 PM Author: federal appetizing fanboi therapy evergrande default
tik tock |
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Date: December 9th, 2021 9:22 PM Author: ocher domesticated hall It seems like the economic doomer scenarios never play out. And I say that as a Zero Hedge junkie who has been rooting for one forever. Gonna have to show me, not tell me. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43585885) |
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Date: December 9th, 2021 9:24 PM Author: federal appetizing fanboi therapy I don't think that the CCP will allow a crash so I am not a Zerohedge type. It's just that the alternative is long drawn out pain and slower real growth for decades. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4980791&forum_id=2#43585901) |
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Date: December 9th, 2021 9:27 PM Author: ocher domesticated hall Fair enough, but "slower economic growth playing out over years" has no entertainment value for me. Seems like the old days when massive irresponsibility was rewarded with an economic depression are over. Nowadays you can borrow, print and speculate all you want, produce no worthwhile goods and still have economic growth.
I suspect the reason has something to do with our technological advances- things can only get so bad when modern agriculture and other efficiencies are so high. |