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If Russia invades will Ukraine defend itself?
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Date: January 22nd, 2022 9:41 PM Author: avocado school cafeteria voyeur If so, how vigorously? Would they attack targets inside Russia? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43830280) |
Date: January 22nd, 2022 9:44 PM Author: slimy stock car It’ll be like Afghanistan imo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43830296) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2022 12:42 PM Author: lake boyish national sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43832464) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:36 PM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838370) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 1:17 PM Author: spectacular resort round eye lol Ukraine doesn't have anything as effective as the Taliban Ukranians and Russians are virtually ethnically identical too not the same thing at all |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 1:19 PM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike I think he means that the Ukrainian government will collapse like the Afghan government did, despite all the American claims that they can defend themselves indefinitely and they have American weapons and training. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838788) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 1:20 PM Author: spectacular resort round eye oh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838798) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 4:55 PM Author: slimy stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43840260) |
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Date: January 22nd, 2022 9:45 PM Author: Bespoke dashing bawdyhouse Everybody assumes they’re going to get routed in a matter of weeks. They’re facing Russian forces from like 70% of its borders. Who knows what the Ukraine/NATO defense calls for. Standing up and fighting the Russians seems stupid, but once Russians reach Kiev it will seem like it’s a lost cause. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43830299) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2022 12:38 PM Author: avocado school cafeteria voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43832450) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:36 PM Author: avocado school cafeteria voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838365) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:38 PM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike Here's my take as someone who has lived in both Russia and Ukraine. There's a small nationalist minority in Ukraine that wants to fight. The US and Ukrainian governments overrepresent how large that portion is. These guys will go up against Russia and get absolutely destroyed quickly.
Everyone else has zero interest in fighting or getting hurt for some dumb nationalist rhetoric. Russia has zero interest in this being a bloodbath and their worst case scenario would be images of charred out Kiev being seen by Russians. Remember, this was the same country a few decades ago. So I think there will be a few days of real fighting with nationalist units and then the whole thing will quickly collapse. |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:40 PM Author: Bespoke dashing bawdyhouse CR. The real question will be if all the new tech Ukraine has can slow the Russians down. If a planned 96 hour offensive bogs down into a few weeks due to heavy Russian casualties, then we might have ourselves a ball game. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838406) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:46 PM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike I'm not sure they'll even make any of it available to nationalist battalions. For one, they don't know how to use it. For another, no one trusts them and they could easily turn it against the government or just sell it on the black market.
Just like in Afghanistan, the most likely scenario is that all that new tech will be handed over to Russia (possibly for monetary compensation or for positions/power) after this is all over.
"If a planned 96 hour offensive bogs down into a few weeks due to heavy Russian casualties, then we might have ourselves a ball game."
Not really. Russia will just increase firepower. Remember, Russia will have total air superiority almost immediately. Russia's goal is to win as quickly and bloodlessly as possible. If they get bogged down they'll resort to more ruthless tactics and do mass bombing of enemy lines. Remember, Russia retook Chechnya which was a much harder task than Ukraine. You had a bunch of Islamists there. Meanwhile, most Ukrainians just want this to be over quickly and are more concerned with the impact of this on taxes, infrastructure, jobs and pensions. |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:42 PM Author: lavender provocative location milk what about Russian casualties? you act as if Russians have amazing morale and bottomless stomach for the casualties they will certainly receive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838421) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:50 PM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike To understand Russian morale you have to understand the Russian perspective. Every single generation has seen real war. It is kind of a way of life. Everyone understands that war involves sacrifice. Again, look back to Georgia and Chechnya, two similar conflicts. I recall exactly the same shit too - "but the West is backing Georgia/Chechnya! But they now have Western tech! Russia is screwed!" Neither stood any chance and were quickly overwhelmed and destroyed.
Georgia is even more similar because Russia was supporting Russian-backed separatists. I was in Moscow during that whole thing. |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:52 PM Author: lavender provocative location milk I don’t remember the Chechnya thing being very quick at all (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838527) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:55 PM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike Chechnya definitely took longer and don't forget that Russia already fought a long bloody war that it lost there (thanks Yeltsin, you drunk loser). So you can imagine what morale must have been like there and they still prevailed. And to win that, they bombed Grozny to the ground. They still won and that victory made Putin into a legend. That's my point - if this goes on for more than a few weeks it isn't like Russians are going to scream "wtf, we thought this would only take 48 hours!"
Russia isn't America and this is a great example of how and why. |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:57 PM Author: lavender provocative location milk yeah, many a time I have thought “if only America would bomb the fuck out of one of her own cities, then it would be truly great” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838585) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 1:01 PM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike Come on, if we bombed SF to the ground, would anything truly be lost? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838621) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 1:03 PM Author: multi-colored depressive old irish cottage america burning the shit out of its cities during the civil war is actually pretty famous (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838642) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:47 PM Author: multi-colored depressive old irish cottage It was planned that in 2015 Ukraine would undergo three waves of partial mobilization, this would have allowed new troops to replace those serving longer than their original term of service.[77] As a result, the number of defections from Ukrainian Armed Forces has risen substantially cause the Ukrainian conscripts had no wish to put their life at risk in combat. An advisor of Ukrainian president described the quality of forcibly mobilized Ukrainian soldiers as "alcoholics and dodgers, drug addicts and morons".[78] According to many reports the increased consumption of drugs and alcohol on duty has become a serious issue in Ukrainian Armed Forces. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838481) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:53 PM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike More fundamentally, you have to ask yourself what you imagine Ukrainians would be fighting for here. Western democracy? Please. Many of them see the West as degenerate and their "democracy" has been a disaster. The constant Maidans (two color revolutions already) have led to instability and ultimately, the country is ruled by a group of corrupt oligarchs that no one likes or trusts. Some "Ukrainian nationalism?" Most Ukrainians speak Russian just fine. Most Ukrainians are Eastern Orthodox. There's nothing that would compel them to be willing to die to fight Russia. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838544) |
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Date: March 1st, 2022 1:07 PM Author: avocado school cafeteria voyeur LMAO thanks for your expert take (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#44060999) |
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Date: March 1st, 2022 1:09 PM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike Hard to know what portion of the population is really fighting. But those that are are fighting harder than expected, though they may literally be foreign special forces that are helping. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#44061013) |
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Date: March 1st, 2022 1:15 PM Author: 180 hall crotch You were wrong about literally everything in this thread. You have no predictive ability. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#44061070) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:53 PM Author: Insecure Theater Queen Of The Night Don't the people living in the contested parts of Ukraine identify as Russian and almost exclusively speak Russian?
I remember seeing a scene from a documentary (maybe PBS Frontline, before it became total garbage during Trump era) in which a Crimean woman was crying about the war, and another woman with her says "thank God for Vladimir Putin." The crying woman emphatically agreed with her. That was probably a propaganda one-off but isn't that closer to the sentiments of the population in question? |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 1:00 PM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike Sure, and that's even true in much of E. Ukraine that isn't under Russian control. Which is part of the real question here. Ok, so how much will Russia take? What will it do with the remaining rump state? Or will it take the whole thing? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838615) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:55 PM Author: Floppy Magenta Sandwich Rigor i don't know much about Ukraine, but what I have seen leads me to believe that they are a feckless, backwards people (though attractive) who have not really done much in 30 years of 'independence'. so i doubt they will be very effective. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838565) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 1:08 PM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike I think they could fight hard if there's something to fight for but there isn't here. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838680) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 1:12 PM Author: Floppy Magenta Sandwich Rigor i mean, it would be senseless under present circumstances.
the US is not going to back Ukraine in a drawn-out total war against Russia. so what is the point. to turn your own country into mini-Beiruit for a few months for no reason, just to piss off the same people who are going to end up in control regardless? foolishness. live to fight another day. |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 1:15 PM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike Think about it from the Ukrainian POV.
1) You fight and after losing half the country the same corrupt shitheads stay in charge. You get nothing for your blood and sweat.
2) You don't fight and you stay alive and healthy, your friends and family stay alive and healthy. Maybe the news guys won't be as shitty as the old guys.
2 seems like a no-brainer here. |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 12:52 PM Author: avocado school cafeteria voyeur They have lots of NATO weapons though (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43844615) |
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Date: January 26th, 2022 11:09 AM Author: Scarlet rigpig preventive strike So did the Afghan government. So did ISIS. So did Georgia. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43849732) |
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Date: March 1st, 2022 1:11 PM Author: aqua nibblets good bump, good thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#44061025) |
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Date: March 1st, 2022 1:29 PM Author: Lascivious fishy casino There was a good article right after the 2014 revolution and subsequent invasion of crimea. The reporter was embedded with an ethnic russian militia in eastern ukraine. At one point he asked them what their final goals were. Some wanted their region to be an independent republic, others wanted their area to be semi-autonomous, a few wanted to march to Kiev to take back the government. None of them wanted Russia to invade and take over Ukraine. This sentiment was a bit different in Crimea, but the reporting cut against the more simplistic narratives that were out in the media (and repeated in this thread) that simply equated ethnic russians in ukraine with pro-invasion sentiment. The other thing I've read is that ethnic russians have been disappointed in russian economic assistance and the progress in rebuilding the breakaway regions and that this has contributed to more nationalist sentiment. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#44061141) |
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Date: March 29th, 2022 11:39 PM Author: turquoise zippy locus travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#44243670) |