If Russia invades will Ukraine defend itself?
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:38 PM Author: Supple cordovan business firm
Here's my take as someone who has lived in both Russia and Ukraine. There's a small nationalist minority in Ukraine that wants to fight. The US and Ukrainian governments overrepresent how large that portion is. These guys will go up against Russia and get absolutely destroyed quickly.
Everyone else has zero interest in fighting or getting hurt for some dumb nationalist rhetoric. Russia has zero interest in this being a bloodbath and their worst case scenario would be images of charred out Kiev being seen by Russians. Remember, this was the same country a few decades ago. So I think there will be a few days of real fighting with nationalist units and then the whole thing will quickly collapse.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838390) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 12:46 PM Author: Supple cordovan business firm
I'm not sure they'll even make any of it available to nationalist battalions. For one, they don't know how to use it. For another, no one trusts them and they could easily turn it against the government or just sell it on the black market.
Just like in Afghanistan, the most likely scenario is that all that new tech will be handed over to Russia (possibly for monetary compensation or for positions/power) after this is all over.
"If a planned 96 hour offensive bogs down into a few weeks due to heavy Russian casualties, then we might have ourselves a ball game."
Not really. Russia will just increase firepower. Remember, Russia will have total air superiority almost immediately. Russia's goal is to win as quickly and bloodlessly as possible. If they get bogged down they'll resort to more ruthless tactics and do mass bombing of enemy lines. Remember, Russia retook Chechnya which was a much harder task than Ukraine. You had a bunch of Islamists there. Meanwhile, most Ukrainians just want this to be over quickly and are more concerned with the impact of this on taxes, infrastructure, jobs and pensions.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838459) |
Date: January 24th, 2022 12:53 PM Author: Claret locale deer antler
Don't the people living in the contested parts of Ukraine identify as Russian and almost exclusively speak Russian?
I remember seeing a scene from a documentary (maybe PBS Frontline, before it became total garbage during Trump era) in which a Crimean woman was crying about the war, and another woman with her says "thank God for Vladimir Putin." The crying woman emphatically agreed with her. That was probably a propaganda one-off but isn't that closer to the sentiments of the population in question?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838537) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 1:12 PM Author: Soul-stirring red mad-dog skullcap
i mean, it would be senseless under present circumstances.
the US is not going to back Ukraine in a drawn-out total war against Russia. so what is the point. to turn your own country into mini-Beiruit for a few months for no reason, just to piss off the same people who are going to end up in control regardless? foolishness.
live to fight another day.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838726) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 1:15 PM Author: Supple cordovan business firm
Think about it from the Ukrainian POV.
1) You fight and after losing half the country the same corrupt shitheads stay in charge. You get nothing for your blood and sweat.
2) You don't fight and you stay alive and healthy, your friends and family stay alive and healthy. Maybe the news guys won't be as shitty as the old guys.
2 seems like a no-brainer here.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5014333&forum_id=2#43838749) |
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