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Concepts you just can't understand
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Date: January 29th, 2022 7:58 AM Author: floppy misunderstood halford Monty Hall
I know this makes me TTT but ai don't understand why you should switch doors. Doesn't each door have an equal opportunity of having the cat? |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:11 AM Author: stimulating domesticated theater i get it bc it took me forever to accept this, but the simplest way to think about it is that the odds that you picked the right door at the beginning are 1 in however many doors there are (so 100 doors = 1% chance you picked correctly) holding that to be true, consider what that means for the probability that the other door is correct after all other incorrect doors have been eliminated. the identity of the “right” door doesn’t change as you eliminate incorrect doors. starting from the original probability, it can’t be that the one you picked is transmuted from a 1% chance of being correct to 50% chance just because there are only two doors left |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:16 AM Author: floppy misunderstood halford The point the guy made below - that we have to consider the new information (that the door revealed necessarily contains a goat) helped me understand it. I think. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867456) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:17 AM Author: stimulating domesticated theater yeah i think that was the missing piece for me as well when i couldn’t wrap my head around it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867461) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:39 AM Author: Vivacious bistre field nibblets Monty Hall is told in an intentionally vague way most of the time. The part that people gloss over, but is integral to understanding it, is that the game show host knows what’s behind the doors, and will always choose a goat. This adds information, which changes probabilities. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867527) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:13 AM Author: stimulating domesticated theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867980) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:18 AM Author: curious grizzly step-uncle's house stock car Think about it like this if there were a hundred doors and you were trying to guess the right one, your odds are 1 in 100. Right? Shot in the dark. 99% you lose.
Say someone removes 98 other doors that were wrong and now there are only two. Either your first pick was INSANELY LUCKY, or, the remaining door is DEFINITELY the one. Either way your odds went from 1/100 to 1/2. You might have gotten it right the first time but if you switch you're most likely picking the correct door, vs the one you picked out of a hat as an extreme longshot.
The actual math says that only by changing your choice can you capitalize on the new odds. If you remain with your OG selection you are still at 1/100 which is abysmal. If you change you're now up to 50/50. So always change doors to increase your odds. You could still be wrong, but your odds always improve. |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:42 AM Author: narrow-minded supple affirmative action Don't your odds go to more or less 99% by switching in the 100 door scenario? Not 50/50 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868164) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:50 AM Author: Heady den this redditor explains it perfectly. the whole thing is a trick question imo because people miss the fact that the host deliberately opens one of the doors without a car behind it. if it were a truly random event then sometimes the host would open the first door and there'd be a fuckin' car behind it which throws off the whole thing.
https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/58cdw3/comment/d8zgwsd/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:56 AM Author: curious grizzly step-uncle's house stock car Cr, by switching doors you're betting that you were wrong initially, when your odds were much lower.
If you don't change, there are 2 scenarios where you are wrong and 1 where you're right, so you have 33% of having been right on the first guess vs 67% chance of being wrong.
If you change doors there are 2 scenarios where you are right and 1 where you're wrong, so the odds are now flipped in your favor.
This is because the host never eliminates a win scenario, only a lose scenario. |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 12:31 PM Author: Lilac Associate Set this is well put (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868455) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 1:30 PM Author: Heady den “This is because the host never eliminates a win scenario, only a lose scenario.“
THIS. Fuckin trick question |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 1:44 PM Author: floppy misunderstood halford Oh wow so if the host happened to pick the car he would move on to another door? Wow it all makes sense now. TY (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868819) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 1:47 PM Author: Heady den Reddit is 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868843) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 1:51 PM Author: Territorial Trailer Park Hunting Ground 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868871) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:23 AM Author: Self-absorbed Odious Resort cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868045) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 12:46 PM Author: irate amethyst stage mad cow disease write down all the possibilities and their probabilities. it's counterintuitive, but lots of probability kinda is. like this brithday problem. somehow 25 people in a room is almost 99% two people share a birthday. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868503) |
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Date: January 30th, 2022 4:26 AM Author: Cobalt chapel round eye Here are 3 doors, now choose 1. Okay, now do you want that one door, or these 2?
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:00 AM Author: Arousing Rehab How spaceporn isn't in prison by now for raping his wife's son. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867283) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:02 AM Author: floppy misunderstood halford Do you ever do anything other than rag on various posters? I have never seen you make a post that wasn't shiting on someone in some way. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867287) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:02 AM Author: Arousing Rehab I have earned SEVERAL 180s. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867288) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:06 AM Author: floppy misunderstood halford Do you disagree that you are a really negative person and a bully? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867299) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:18 AM Author: costumed scarlet house 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868003) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:04 AM Author: fishy cuck Which of BTC, ETH or SOL which replace FIAT in the future? Only one can & each has a 1/3 shot. Enter Peterman the oracle but as an oldmo is ONLY familiar with BTC and ETH. He tells you that as between BTC and ETH, ETH is NGMI. With this NEW INFORMATION what is the chance for each of BTC and SOL? |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:05 AM Author: Naked Scourge Upon The Earth Institution thanks for helping us meet our weekly monty hall thread quota (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867294) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:06 AM Author: floppy misunderstood halford Ezcuse me? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867298) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:12 AM Author: stimulating domesticated theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867447) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:29 AM Author: floppy misunderstood halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867340) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:33 AM Author: chartreuse sandwich I know this is a flame thread but the Monty hall problem only seems to be strange because it contains an unspoken premise: that the prizeless door is always removed. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867351) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:35 AM Author: floppy misunderstood halford It's not flame.
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:44 AM Author: fishy cuck I explained it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867382) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:46 AM Author: floppy misunderstood halford So basically we are given an additional piece of info - that the excluded door contains a goat - and we should factor thia into our choice of doors? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867386) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:03 AM Author: fishy cuck And the fact that your original choice is excluded from consideration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867424) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:05 AM Author: chartreuse sandwich yes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867432) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:07 AM Author: floppy misunderstood halford Oh ok. I think I have it now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867436) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:42 AM Author: Greedy Cerise Newt Church Partnership tax (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867372) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 12:28 PM Author: Excitant address french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868443) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:47 AM Author: boyish nubile macaca abode Vaccines (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867388) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 8:49 AM Author: Heady den Paul Erdős, one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation demonstrating vos Savant's predicted result.[6]
Other idiosyncratic elements of Erdős's vocabulary include:[32]
Children were referred to as "epsilons" (because in mathematics, particularly calculus, an arbitrarily small positive quantity is commonly denoted by the Greek letter (ε)). Women were "bosses" who "captured" men as "slaves" by marrying them. Divorced men were "liberated". People who stopped doing mathematics had "died", while people who died had "left". Alcoholic drinks were "poison". Music (except classical music) was "noise". To be considered a hack was to be a "Newton". To give a mathematical lecture was "to preach". Mathematical lectures themselves were "sermons".[33] To give an oral exam to students was "to torture" them. |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:39 AM Author: Tripping private investor nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867524) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:43 AM Author: Aquamarine nighttime cruise ship hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867535) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:17 AM Author: costumed scarlet house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868001) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 12:33 PM Author: Lilac Associate Set had no idea erdos was a source for "alcohol is poison." 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868464) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 1:56 PM Author: Rose locale yarmulke XO Erdos (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868901) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:14 AM Author: wine hilarious shrine doctorate I don't get most financial concepts. I find the whole thing incredibly boring, which is unfortunate for me.
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:14 AM Author: floppy misunderstood halford Also the theory of relativity. Especially the part where you age faster the faster you or moving (or something). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867452) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:28 AM Author: fishy cuck Yeah that’s Jew flame (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867486) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:46 AM Author: Electric avocado site Think of time as space. Just like there is a position for everything in the universe there is a position for “everywhen” in the universe. But space and time and intertwined. So when you go super fast your everywhen changes
This also has implications that the past, present, and future all exist at the same time. There is no free will. Time is indeed, as Rust Cohl (via Reggie Ladoux) said, a flat circle |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 9:43 AM Author: pink appetizing nowag business firm Alright bro imagine 6 million Jews in a line and you have to choose one to survive. You make your choice then 5,999,998 are gassed on the spot by evil Nazis just like you, goy. Now there are two Jews in front you. The one you picked has a 1/6,000,000 chance of being correct whereas the other one has a 5,999,999/6,000,000 chance.
Always pick the other Jew. |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 10:33 AM Author: crusty sweet tailpipe dingle berry Gamer gate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867755) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:09 AM Author: Pontificating diverse pit Journalists lied, gamers figured it out and grew to distrust journalists just in time for the 2016 election, trump was elected in part due to their memes. It's not too hard to get. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867951) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:20 AM Author: floppy misunderstood halford Same. What is it about? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868020) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:11 AM Author: glittery travel guidebook Lebesgue measure (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867965) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:54 AM Author: fishy cuck Well-ordering of the reals (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868245) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:11 AM Author: spruce dilemma fortuitous meteor vinyl records. i understand how a groove can produce a single sound, but not how it can perfectly reproduce a group of sounds. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867968) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:21 AM Author: exhilarant ladyboy cq. also, cassettes/magnetic tape. how do they capture sound? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868028) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 2:41 PM Author: chartreuse sandwich Have you considered it is not your concept of vinyl records that is uninformed but your concept of sound itself? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43869241) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:13 AM Author: Pontificating diverse pit I legitimately don't understand the long-term plan with QE, but I don't think anyone does. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867975) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:16 AM Author: glittery travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43867994) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 1:55 PM Author: Rose locale yarmulke No plan brother, no plan. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868890) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 2:53 PM Author: cracking crimson patrolman trust fund It exists to prolong the game. Eventually we have a reset via new global reserve currency. Avoid long term debt (and take on low fixed rate low term debt when possible). A 30 year mortgage is a good example. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43869332) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:20 AM Author: exhilarant ladyboy I can intuitively understand a decent amount of relativity theory but one thing I don’t get is if you rotate a 1,000,000-mile long rigid object fast enough that the outter-most portion should be traveling faster than light how is it not actually traveling faster than light? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868021) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:43 AM Author: glittery travel guidebook It takes time to propagate the movement to the end. It's not instantaneous. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868177) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:45 AM Author: fishy cuck Correct. There are no truly rigid objects under relativity (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868186) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:55 AM Author: exhilarant ladyboy but let’s say I have a ruler that reaches from the earth to the sun. It takes 8 minutes for light from the sun to reach the earth. If I spin the ruler fast enough such that it takes one minute to do a half rotation then what is actually happening to the outter edge of the ruler? Intuitively each end of the ruler should be traveling from the earth to the sun in one minute but relatively tells us this cannot be. So what is actually happening to the ruler? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868248) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Vermilion Vigorous Plaza it's no longer remaining a rigid rectangle assuming it's even holding together at all. whatever path the individual particles making up the ruler take, they are not being influenced by events outside of their past light-cone (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868273) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 12:39 PM Author: Lilac Associate Set i am much dumber than all of you guys in this subthread, but isn't the problem that you can't possibly "spin the ruler fast enough that it takes one minute to do a half rotation" as that would have the ruler moving faster than the speed of light? seems like you're assuming an impossibility (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868474) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 1:48 PM Author: exhilarant ladyboy the center of the ruler can spin fast enough to do a half rotation in a minute but the outter edges cannot. basically I’m wondering what happens to the ruler? does it break apart? does it distort? Whats does it look like once you slow it back down? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868855) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 2:43 PM Author: chartreuse sandwich This whole dumb hypo is because you can’t understand that the ruler would break (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43869253) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 5:25 PM Author: exhilarant ladyboy where along it’s axis would it break and at what speed? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43870334) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:22 AM Author: Adventurous Crackhouse International Law Enforcement Agency women (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868036) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 11:55 AM Author: Self-absorbed Odious Resort social justice (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868250) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 12:41 PM Author: mustard people who are hurt pozpig unchecked greed by corporations (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868482) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 2:07 PM Author: fiercely-loyal misanthropic toaster heaven Penrose's use of diagrammatics to show tensor operations. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43868977) |
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Date: January 29th, 2022 2:44 PM Author: Passionate market Time value of money. Not due to any sort of cognitive shortcoming, but moral refusal. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43869262) |
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Date: January 30th, 2022 4:29 AM Author: Carnelian dopamine How I could just kill a man (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5019040&forum_id=2#43872811) |