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what is going on with Housing Market?
Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 21st, 2022 12:17 PM Author: Glittery fuchsia lodge is it still going crazy with houses getting bought up in days or has it settled? what does next couple years look like? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45206775) |
Date: September 21st, 2022 12:20 PM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma Mortgage rates are skyrocketing, making monthly payments increase something like 50% Y/Y
This is causing sales to tumble and supply to grow. Prices will necessarily drop
U.S. existing-home sales and prices fell in August from the prior month as mortgage rates climbed toward their highest level in 14 years.
Sales of previously owned homes dropped 0.4% in August from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 million, the weakest rate since May 2020, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. August sales fell 19.9% from a year earlier.
The housing market has slowed in recent months—with seven months of monthly sales declines through August—as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates to cool the economy and bring down high inflation. That has led to higher mortgage-interest rates and increased borrowing costs for home buyers by hundreds of dollars a month, pushing many out of the market. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.02% in the week ended Sept. 15, up from 2.86% a year earlier, according to housing-finance agency Freddie Mac. |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 12:30 PM Author: Frum cuckold it's got to come down from the recent highs, but how much is hard to tell. the counter argument is that no one is going to sell their 2.5% house to get into a 6% one and new builds will slow dramatically so the supply should stay low keeping prices high. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45206832) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 12:32 PM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma Counterpoint: almost half of all SFHs in some geos were purchased by investment funds in recent years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45206845) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 12:33 PM Author: misunderstood 180 business firm Therefore? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45206849) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 12:33 PM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma They will not sit and eat 20-30% declines in asset values. And when they start walking to the door, you may see a rush as nobody wants to be the bagholder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45206857) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 9:22 AM Author: translucent hairy legs Oh so rents must also be falling and showing signs of dropping further? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45217377) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 5:13 PM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma Yes? https://yieldpro.com/2022/09/annual-rent-growth-rate-falls-as-rents-decline/ |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 5:30 PM Author: translucent hairy legs Yo did you not read this or are you for real a not smart person? I go back and forth about the extent to which you are schtick but some stuff like this just seems like pure stupidity.
Look at the first chart here:
When will we get to the place on the chart that we were at in 2008-2010?
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 5:33 PM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma (Guy who doesn’t understand the concept of first or second derivatives) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45220103) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 6:03 PM Author: translucent hairy legs Me: are rental prices falling?
You: yes, look at this article.
Me: that article says rents are up double digits yoy and have been for almost two years. Here’s another one that shows that rents have been wildly escalating since pre pandemic and haven’t fallen since the Great Recession.
You: you don’t understand the new math, man. Up is down. High is low. Rising prices are still falling relative to some bullshit made up nonsense I pulled out of my ass and I also don’t address the point below that the payment streams were obviously turned into CDOs years ago because I’m so. Fucking. High. Man! |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 6:17 PM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma Bro - I don’t think you understand your own graph. These are cumulative y/y rent comparisons. The fact the first derivative of the growth chart is negative necessarily means that the incremental new rental prices you are seeing are declining
Also, Invitation Homes (aka the largest homeowner in the USA) retains the ownership of the homes it purchases.
xoxo hth |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 6:44 PM Author: translucent hairy legs Oh yes I distinctly remember I asked only about incremental new rents, yes, good point *drools*. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45220406) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 6:46 PM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma New rent prices this month are lower than last month. Rents, which have been elevated, are thus declining.
Thank you for being a maf idiot |
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Date: September 26th, 2022 11:29 AM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma https://www.wsj.com/articles/rents-drop-for-first-time-in-two-years-after-climbing-to-records-11664135107 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45232097) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 5:35 PM Author: Wine National Corn Cake DM does shorts at some hedge fund that everyone knows is a loss maker but justifies 2 and 20 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45220115) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 9:35 AM Author: adventurous elastic band senate Real estate sits on your books at your tax basis until you rent it out to new tenants at lower rates or sell it. Hence they will just not rent it out or sell it and let it sit on the books at tax basis. This is why like 1 in 6 new build apartments in NYC is vacant. They will stay vacant for a long time until we fix the way real estate is accounted for. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45217412) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 5:14 PM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma Bro the entire thesis of SFH acquisition by funds was for the rental yield, not capital appreciation. They contributed to the latter by reaching for the former (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45220009) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 12:33 PM Author: misunderstood 180 business firm Therefore? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45206850) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 12:34 PM Author: Frum cuckold no doubt. i guess most of the corps operate on rolling credit right? they're not all locked into 3% mortgages, they just buy that shit outright and roll-over all their debt every couple years. so next time they roll it over and the rate is twice what their initial estimates were, the income to debt math won't look nearly as good and they'll have to dump. also if houses start declining their asset side doesn't look great either and their creditors will get nervous. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45206867) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 12:35 PM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma Correct (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45206874) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 9:38 AM Author: adventurous elastic band senate No one buys these pools of properties and just sits on them. To reduce your credit risk book you immediately package them into a product and sell them on. So even if rates go up and they cant do what theyve been doing its not like the BlackRocks of the world are sitting on these houses. They have all been sold off to street investors in REITs or various PE fund "alternative" products. Large institutions will be fine. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45217433) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 4:21 PM Author: Yapping Hyperactive Heaven Yields on SFRs are in the 4s now. 2-year treasuries are 4.1%. 10-year is 3.6% or something like that. And that's for essentially zero risk. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208202) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 4:26 PM Author: marvelous dark field ljl this is losing money when u factor in inflation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208227) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 11:46 PM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma Yeah when treasuries match SFH cap rates it's game over (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45210436) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 11:48 PM Author: heady space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45210441) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 12:35 PM Author: Vermilion Curious Immigrant demand is still greater than supply (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45206869) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 12:39 PM Author: bat-shit-crazy appetizing gaping whorehouse it's slowly crashing bc RE is a lagging indicator and moves slowly, but realtors(r) and their apologists keep moving the goalpoasts with shit from "it'll always go up" to "it'll never go down" to "it'll only go down in a few markets" to "it'll go down a little bit at most" and cite various BS theories to support their BS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45206912) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 3:57 PM Author: Glittery fuchsia lodge whens the right to buy? I am looking at both permanent residence and also sfh rental. I need prices to go down but if rates keep going up its practically a wash. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208106) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 3:58 PM Author: bat-shit-crazy appetizing gaping whorehouse for a perm residence: when u find the home u like in a school district that doesn't have blacks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208112) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 5:32 PM Author: provocative ungodly theatre windowlicker Interests rates going down after this presidential election or next presidential election to 4%. Just wait my guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208562) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 5:59 PM Author: Glittery fuchsia lodge why not do that now? fed is controlled by dems so wouldnt they lower now to help biden and congress dems? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208690) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 4:24 PM Author: crystalline dopamine In my neighborhood prices are off dramatically. At least 10% off highs and falling. One home on my street cut its price 18% before it went under contract. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208212) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 4:28 PM Author: Yapping Hyperactive Heaven Houses near me look like they're down about 10%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208238) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 4:27 PM Author: copper bipolar foreskin I’m in LA and track listings from time to time just to see how my neighborhood values are doing. Shit is definitely just sitting on the market whereas 6 months ago it would be gone within a week. The price drops are coming (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208233) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 5:27 PM Author: Filthy Floppy French Chef CR. The real question is how much do you think prices will decline out here? There's plenty of dry powder waiting to buy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208535) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 6:04 PM Author: saffron irradiated box office not enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208709) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 5:34 PM Author: Jet-lagged Nighttime Indian Lodge Legal Warrant CA real estate will never decline significantly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208571) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 4:29 PM Author: Razzmatazz iridescent really tough guy rigor TSINAH failed to pay his rent by the deadline yesterday but his landlord realizes they won’t be able to find a replacement tenant in this housing market, so they’re letting TSINAH stay for now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208245) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 5:29 PM Author: mint bespoke sandwich parlor The Fed is killing the American consumer. By killing the American consumer, housing market will inevitably crash. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208547) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 6:44 PM Author: bat-shit-crazy appetizing gaping whorehouse Inflation killed the quantitative easing star (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208841) |
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Date: September 21st, 2022 6:47 PM Author: Puce Sex Offender Church This has been 20 years in the making (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45208847) |
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Date: September 22nd, 2022 12:50 AM Author: razzle mustard nursing home fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45210906) |
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Date: September 22nd, 2022 3:12 PM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45213789) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 9:16 AM Author: Federal telephone toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45217364) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 9:18 AM Author: trip sweet tailpipe station redfin is still sending me closing updates significantly above list, but they might be from a month or two ago. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45217372) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 9:31 AM Author: Federal telephone toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45217398) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 9:40 AM Author: provocative ungodly theatre windowlicker The pace of new build construction never recovered after 2008 and slowed even further during Covid. Therefore it protected us from a crash. So No the sky is not falling. The market will correct and things will keep chugging along (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45217446) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 9:51 AM Author: Impressive hideous center mad-dog skullcap There is no inventory in LA (don’t care about ttt markets). Nobody will ever list their refi’ed 2.5% houses. Prices are stable. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45217501) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 9:53 AM Author: stirring hissy fit cope (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45217504) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 9:54 AM Author: Jet-lagged Nighttime Indian Lodge Legal Warrant Yeah I don’t see how there’s a crash on the horizon unless everyone simultaneously loses their jobs. Some fringe markets like Boise will probably feel the pain though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45217514) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 10:49 AM Author: Impressive hideous center mad-dog skullcap Lending standards have changed completely post-2008.
Those losing their jobs will find other jobs since labor market is still very tight. Everyone worried about recession are wringing their hands unnecessarily since we have a long runway for unemployment.
I don’t see a glut of short sales/foreclosures coming because it takes about 2-3 years before the banks can actually get their hands on the homes and the people losing their jobs will get a new job way before then.
What I can see happening are people who moved to the boonies during Covid selling to go back to metro areas. Permanent WFH is over according to the boomer overlords. |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 11:36 AM Author: Jet-lagged Nighttime Indian Lodge Legal Warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45218147) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 11:39 AM Author: Massive Forum You're basically female rudolph and I accordingly just pulled all my investments and will be living under a rock the next five years to take shelter from imminent total economic collapse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45218167) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 1:31 PM Author: stirring hissy fit she's just heavily invested in real estate
same way a degenerate gambler like rudolph is invested in a game of sportsball
doesn't reflect an unbiased view of the situation |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 1:56 PM Author: Impressive hideous center mad-dog skullcap I’d welcome a 2008 style crash so I can buy more. In 2011 I bought a foreclosed condo for $330k. Too bad those sorts of opportunities are no longer possible. At best, there will be a correction to pre-Covid prices. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45218882) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 5:13 PM Author: Wine National Corn Cake "Ackshully I want most of my NW wiped out" - poorfag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45220004) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 5:56 PM Author: Impressive hideous center mad-dog skullcap NW from RE is meaningless when you’re not selling. We either live in it or get rental income. we are never selling another home again. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45220218) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 6:21 PM Author: Wine National Corn Cake "If you just don't sell then our shitty performance is meaningless" - your mutual fund manager (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45220296) |
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Date: September 24th, 2022 5:12 AM Author: house-broken ratface principal's office "How I think about real estate is how everyone thinks about real estate" - someone who doesn't realize that highly leveraged people sell their house when they lose their job during a recession regardless of their nice mortgage rate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45222287) |
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Date: October 21st, 2022 4:36 PM Author: Impressive hideous center mad-dog skullcap the fact that I haven’t sold anything YTD other than to tax loss harvest when markets are down 20-25% does make the paper loss meaningless to me. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45369437) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 5:59 PM Author: house-broken ratface principal's office This is rock-solid reasoning like your Coinbase thesis (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45220232) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 1:38 PM Author: Supple carmine travel guidebook roommate Prices may come down, but in any desirable area prices will never again be lower than they were around 2019. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45218823) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 1:40 PM Author: stirring hissy fit also the price of a 15 ounce can of beans will never be lower than $1.24
anyway the real problem is that most people that emotionally purchased this year are going to be in for some serious psychological pain when they are paying 50% of their income on a depreciating asset
this factor is what causes real estate to crash
people just say "fuck it" |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 1:43 PM Author: Supple carmine travel guidebook roommate We shall see. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45218840) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 5:11 PM Author: wonderful disgusting dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45220000) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 5:12 PM Author: fluffy corner whiplash
still a long term buy, but down market could be a few years depending on the market |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 5:26 PM Author: jet milk It’s coming down 30% at least in most major markets, but it’s not happening until 2023 when the fed induced recession is in full swing.
The first major shock already happened with rapidly rising mortgage rates. The second shock will be skyrocketing unemployment when the fed inevitably overtightens monetary policy. |
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Date: September 23rd, 2022 6:51 PM Author: Federal telephone toaster Are leveraged AirBnB fags going to get wiped out or not? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45220441) |
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Date: September 26th, 2022 11:31 AM Author: cracking sound barrier Next phase for turo: car camping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45232109) |
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Date: October 21st, 2022 4:30 PM Author: Impressive hideous center mad-dog skullcap Housing market is crashing!!
https://redf.in/WjUA7t |
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Date: October 21st, 2022 4:37 PM Author: Federal telephone toaster ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45369444) |
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Date: October 21st, 2022 4:39 PM Author: Yapping Hyperactive Heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45369448) |
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Date: October 21st, 2022 5:47 PM Author: Impressive hideous center mad-dog skullcap Shitbox went for $200k over ask. Last year it would’ve gone for $300-400k over ask. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5196550&forum_id=2#45369775) |