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XO is completely missing the point of these tariffs and other moves
Poast new message in this thread
Date: April 15th, 2025 11:18 AM Author: poppy stirring windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849080) |
Date: April 15th, 2025 11:21 AM Author: Mahogany lodge Trump liked tariffs because he js stupid. It’s not deep (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849086) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 11:58 AM Author: out-of-control organic girlfriend you're missing the whole Jewish world domination / great replacement angle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849220) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:33 PM Author: trip set potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849355) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 11:24 AM Author: idiotic box office Almost no one out there is even aware of the Miran policy paper, let alone has read it or even glossed over it
I just stopped engaging entirely with people about the admin's economic policy both irl and online. It's pointless. There's nothing more to learn about the situation from anyone who isn't literally on the admin's team who has firsthand privileged info. We just have to wait and see if the plan works or not |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 11:26 AM Author: maize clown meetinghouse this one? https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf tyft |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 11:32 AM Author: idiotic box office Yessir. That will tell you all you need to know if you actually care about understanding what's going on
It's impossible for any of us regular people to know the real status of what's happening because everything depends on the private negotiations with different countries. We probably won't know anything more until the 90 day negotiation window draws to a close because everyone is going to stall things out to maximize their leverage and relative position to others |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 11:30 AM Author: Mauve High-end School Cafeteria Brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849116) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 11:43 AM Author: comical corner legal warrant "no one is even aware of... let alone has read it or even glossed over it"
ESL? |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 11:46 AM Author: idiotic box office I'm a 100% Han Chinese paid shill for the People's Republic Of China (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849164) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:02 PM Author: Flickering Property Faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849242) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:05 PM Author: comical corner legal warrant CCP's gonna be pissed when they find out that this place is 86% chinese shills and UCs from different agencies talking to each other.
They need to institute better inter-agency info-sharing. In the US before 9/11 the KKK was like 75% feds, too. |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:12 PM Author: Translucent boyish weed whacker point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849293) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 1:07 PM Author: Black Electric Furnace Mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849452) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 11:50 AM Author: Claret big mad-dog skullcap area Oh wow! Hudson Bay Capital. Get the fuck out of here with this garbage. This leaflet is worse than the macro garbage put out by some poli sci shithead.
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/who_we_are |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 11:53 AM Author: Obsidian mother internal respiration As yes, the "plan" where he will swear up and down that a certain tariff is here to stay then caves within a few days. I'd love to know why any manufacturer would spend billions to move factories to the US when they know they just have to sit and wait for Trump to cave. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849194) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 11:57 AM Author: idiotic box office Did you read the paper yet? (no, you haven't). Stop commenting on the topic until you do. Your "opinion" on the topic is worthless otherwise
Read the paper or stfu you stupid lazy peasant |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 11:57 AM Author: Chestnut shrine ceo I read it a week or two ago and was disappointed by its slanted and limited perspective. It makes numerous assumptions that need not come true, some of which have already not come true, like his prediction that the USD will initially strengthen to offset the tariffs (it hasn't, it's fallen by 10%). The paper rests one of its core arguments on the claim that the US share of global GDP is falling, then supports this claim with a graph showing US share of world GDP rising substantially since 2010 and that the US is a higher percentage of world GDP now than it was in 1980.
It makes claims like "President Trump, and those likely to staff his economic policy team, have a history of caring deeply about financial markets and citing the stock market as evidence of economic strength and the popularity of his policies. A second Trump Administration is likely therefore take steps to ensure large structural changes to the international tax code occur in ways that are minimally disruptive to markets and the economy." Oops! The administration of course ended up triggering one of the largest market crashes in history by applying inexplicable tariff rates calculated by ChatGPT, and also caused a plummeting treasury market and US dollar.
The paper reads as apologetics for Trump, not as a serious balanced analysis covering all possible outcomes. It's quite alarming to think that the administration is using this rose-colored, slanted and incomplete analysis as the basis of its strategy, but it seems obvious in hindsight that they have, which is why they didn't anticipate the obvious market fallout of their capricious actions. |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:00 PM Author: Cracking filthy rehab athletic conference shocking twist (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849228) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:05 PM Author: idiotic box office The reason why the USD is initially falling instead of rising is because they decided to tariff the entire world at once right away, instead of doing it gradually and deliberately (this is what the paper recommends, and what its predictions like the above are based on). This admin has its reasons for doing it this way but it's definitely way riskier than what is proposed in the paper, for sure, and imo has a lower chance of achieving its overall goals
The rest of your post is flame that is explained if you actually read the paper (you didn't, you're bullshitting, the tariff rates comment is a huge tell) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 3:20 PM Author: Chestnut shrine ceo Don't accuse me of bullshitting, retard. I read the paper in good faith twice now. I made direct quotes and references from it and gave my overall assessment. You said the paper proposes a strategy and makes recommendations but the paper claims it doesn't "recommend" anything, it explicitly says in the introduction that it's not advocating for a particular policy but rather exploring possible outcomes from Trump's impending actions on trade. So is the paper being used to justify Trump's trade actions (Miran is a Trump advisor) but not owning this justification? Or are others using this paper to justify Trump's actions inappropriately? If the purpose of this paper is to determine an optimal course of action on trade then it is way too short a document and has not covered nearly enough relevant factors, strategies and implications. If the purpose is merely to articulate one possible way things could unfold and say that that path could look tolerable, then that is much more limited in scope. There are tons of such forecast type papers produced every week by various investment banks and research firms. In this case it's merely the author predicting what a favorable possible path might look like given that tariffs are implemented, not arguing that tariffs are the best possible way forward, and those predictions have already failed (predicting that Trump and his team won't upset the financial markets is a massively failed prediction). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849927) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 3:29 PM Author: idiotic box office Obviously Miran is lying when he says the paper isn't policy suggestion. Give me a break. You have since edited your post to clarify that you think that this paper is not necessarily arguing *for* tariffs, or for the strategic re-shoring of industry. I agree with you there. I agree that this paper is written from the perspective of: "given the admin's economic goals of X, Y, and Z, here is my recommendation for how best to achieve those goals"
I already explained in one clear sentence why the predictions haven't lined up so far, which you completely ignored, only to make the exact same assertion again. This is why I have given up talking to anyone about this. I honestly can't even tell if you're a bad faith troll or not. You very well could be sincere. The current state of "discourse" on this topic is a situation in which bad faith trolls are indistinguishable from uninformed dummies |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 3:46 PM Author: Chestnut shrine ceo It's bad policy and a 41 page paper isn't adequate to assess and compare policy choices. Good policy papers don't have to masquerade as forecasts and run motte-and-bailey strategy pretending they're something they're not. If you think that it's a policy advocacy paper and he's lying that it isn't you should hold that against him because good academic work doesn't lie. You call me a bullshitter when I am honest to a fault and have absolutely nothing to gain by sharing my opinion, and you defend people you literally believe to be lying. You also defend them when they're outright wrong. He said the Trump administration wouldn't disrupt financial markets. He's an advisor to the Trump administration! This guy is just wrong and that's inexcusable. This isn't the humanities or an exercise in rhetoric, it's economics. Real analysis accounts for all possibilities and assigns margins of error around unknowns, this paper identifies an extremely narrow and optimistic path to victory with few margins for the unknown and the path has already failed to materialize.
It's clear you don't have economics training and don't work in finance which is why you think this paper has more merit than it does. It's a dime-a-dozen paper of the sort that is produced literally every single day by research analysts at investment banks and research firms around the world. It is on the low end in terms of its analytical scope and usefulness besides as apologetics for people who have already made their mind up that tariffs are good. |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 4:02 PM Author: idiotic box office Ok you are getting lost re: what this conversation is actually about. The purpose of my original post in this chain was to express frustration at the unwillingness of the vast majority of people to bother doing any independent investigation of the how and why of this admin's obviously controversial and consequential economic policy decisions so far. Obviously you don't fall into this category, assuming you are being sincere, and at this point I think you are
I am not trying to advocate for the policy choices they've made so far. In fact I think they have made serious mistakes, although I'm not an expert in this field, but even going by what's laid out in the paper - there have been significant deviations from what is otherwise a coherent plan. Obviously you agree
I just want people to expend the minimal amount of effort required to understand a topic enough to have an informed opinion on it, which almost no one has done with this topic. Both irl and online, almost every person I've encountered has not even bothered to figure anything out at all, yet has an incredibly strong opinion on the admin's actions thus far. It's really obnoxious |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 3:33 PM Author: Coral trailer park party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849976) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 3:34 PM Author: talented school crotch The whole reason the GOP caved and passed a continuing resolution last month was because this paper was the ONLY thing they could put up in defense of their budget proposal (which didn't actually reduce spending by one penny). Everyone could tell it was pure hopium, but Markwayn Mullin kept pushing it. He still believes in it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849982) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 2:13 PM Author: Doobsian Frum Public Bath Famous Landscape Painting I read the whole thing. Trump didn’t follow it at all. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849667) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:00 PM Author: bright racy sanctuary nibblets the main point is that the status quo was a disaster, especially enriching our main enemy the PRC
people can bitch about change all they want, but I’ve yet to hear any other proposals for departing from the status quo in a significant way |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:01 PM Author: Cracking filthy rehab athletic conference yeah the byu retard was screeching that in front of the senate yesterday. then whenever he was confronted with possible situations that could cause the admin to deviate from course, he proudly proclaimed "these things we wont think happen wont happen"
as if that's risk control |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:14 PM Author: bright racy sanctuary nibblets link? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849304) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:04 PM Author: concupiscible wrinkle idk man things seemed to be going much better before Trump did this. If the market agreed with him investors would be investing, not fleeing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849249) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:13 PM Author: bright racy sanctuary nibblets (real long-term thinker) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849297) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:10 PM Author: Claret big mad-dog skullcap area status quo was great for the US. We're basically the best performing first world economy. WTF else do you want. The china threat has been fading for years now. They're headed toward a major demographic crisis and before Trump's retarded shenanigans they had crappy relations with first world countries. This shit will literally drive everyone to unite against the US. The EU, UK, Canada, China, etc. together have way more economic power and right now their domestic politics strongly favor confrontation with the US. Look at Canada. They've rallied around a PM who a few months ago had no chance of winning the next election. Foreign direct investment, tourism, imports from the US etc will drop like a rock in the next year. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849279) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:12 PM Author: aphrodisiac violent puppy pit so buy JMIA? haha. you suck btw. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849292) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:14 PM Author: bright racy sanctuary nibblets massive trade deficits, massive budget deficits, massive debt, massive lack of an industrial base
things were great 👍 |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:18 PM Author: Flickering Property Faggotry You can't really pretend the status quo was tenable forever, there was no real reason for the world to continue accepting the USD as reserve currency other than inertia. And whenever that turned against us we would be in for a world of pain because our entire economy is centered around being the world's money printer/bank. Trump went about trying to upend this in maybe the most retarded and ill-communicated way possible, but it doesn't diminish the very real problem we face.
Also, "The china threat has been fading for years now" lmfao. Nothing in the US can compete with Shenzhen, to say nothing of the general fact that China is a country of 1.4 billion people with an average IQ around 10 points higher than the US. |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:32 PM Author: Claret big mad-dog skullcap area nothing is tenable forever, but I do believe it was the most stable option. "money printer" is a derisive term. We joke about it but really what it means is that the US is the most trusted large gov't, economy, system out there. people want to invest here and countries want to seek our input on international affairs. That's our best asset and trump's pissing it away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849350) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:39 PM Author: Aqua laughsome international law enforcement agency this such a dumbfuck take. yes, china grew richer. but so did the US. however, instead of using regulatory or tax policy to ensure productivity gains were shared and maintain our middle class, we hollowed it out. now we have a nice top 10%, no middle class, and peasants. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849365) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 12:41 PM Author: bright racy sanctuary nibblets yes we hollowed out our middle class for china’s benefit, and now our lack of a proper industrial base is a strategic threat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849376) |
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Date: April 15th, 2025 1:22 PM Author: talented school crotch Max IQ to think Trump has be bureaucratic apparatus to do this? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5710880&forum_id=2#48849500) |