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Oh hey I appear to have made almost $200K on BTC in like 2 weeks. Nice.
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Date: August 24th, 2026 10:52 AM Author: Curious public bath Has anyone ever figured out why this shit goes up and down? I mean, it's *sometimes* predictable--everyone in 2024 knew we were basically kalshi'ing on the election--but like why did it just rise by 30%?
Really feel like this is an asset class that favors me as a reckless and inattentive retard. I just open coinbase every 5-14 months (which is always fun, since I don't know what number i'm going to see... to like a factor of 100) and if the number seems low, I buy more, and if it seems high as fuck, I use that pay my quarterly taxes.
This "strategy" has netted me an amount I haven't calculated since I bought my house in 2021 (it was >$600K then) and is almost certainly 7 figures. |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 3:52 PM Author: outnumbered native Subject: tip da sneaker man bc1q8d97epn6gstyywl2c764hwwcp3vwhcy4gw7y5h (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089856) |
Date: August 24th, 2026 10:56 AM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt I'm pretty sure crypto is inversely correlated to the stock market.
When tech and AI stocks were booming at a meteoric unprecedented pace, crypto went down about 40%.
When stocks tanked or went flat for a long time and investors are terrified about inflation and interest rate hikes and slower economic growth, they pull out of risky tech assets and they plunk the money into crypto which has an anti inflationary bend. Simple as. |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 11:04 AM Author: Curious public bath So am I betting against AI by investing in crypto? If so, the big AI companies themselves (which I know to a moral certainty are overvalued), or the concept? I don't consider myself an AI skeptic, but it does seem to me that a lot of the investment is driven by low-probability super-high end transformative outcomes. (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089039) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 11:42 AM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt You're not betting against AI. You're hedging against slow growth due to macroeconomic factors. You're saying OK I think AI will happen in the long run but it's probably not going to take off in the next year. There are forces running against it. People who can't afford eggs at the grocery store. Home buyers trying to get a loan. The Fed and the Treasury have to manage 350 million people's expectations. Now you have a budding political movement against building data centers which is extremely stupid and bad for AI. But people are passionate about preserving their communities from perceives disruption. All these political factors are conspiring against AI right now. And the fact that it's still unproven and the model isn't totally understood in terms of long term profitability and who the exact winners and losers are going to be.
So crypto hedges against all of that uncertainty. It's anti inflationary. It's a bet that AI isn't there yet. But that being said the second AI rips in the market crypto will get rug pulled again. When Nvidia starts marching towards 3-400 per share everyone ditches crypto and goes all in on AI. So just be ready. |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 1:26 PM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) It would be pretty simple to test this hypothesis. (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089446) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 1:27 PM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt Buy crypto when tech stonks are flat and sell them and buy AI during the next bull run? I'm already on it chief (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089448) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 1:31 PM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) I'm not talking about your personal strategy. I'm saying you can just compare the performance of crypto to stocks related to AI and see that they're not inversely correlated. In fact, crypto used to be one of the biggest drivers of chipmaker demand and they were tightly correlated. (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089457) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 2:13 PM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt In the last 6 months, I'm right (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089581) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 2:18 PM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) Massive sample size there. You seem confident that'll continue and plan to invest based on it, we'll see if your next 6 months of trading are better than the first! (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089600) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 2:21 PM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt You mean the time I told everyone to buy at the absolute bottom of the S&P and the market went up 30%? And then I simply have held this entire time and done nothing? But now I'm agreeing with Zurich that crypto is a buy? And I single handedly shamed Tommy into liquidating his puts and going long and made him back a lot of his fortune?
Yeah horrible track record in the last 6 months! |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 2:25 PM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) We're talking about whether crypto is inversely correlated to the stock market.
Your confidence in the direction of crypto is just based on you taking a position in it. It's not based on objective analysis, it's based on you hoping the market aligns with your positions, which a couple months ago you dismissed as retarded. You're changing on your mind on this stuff with the same rapidness you change your ideologies.
As far as comparing our personal performance, most of my money is in VTSAX. Are you doing better than that? |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 2:27 PM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt I'm definitely up at least 20% but I'm in riskier assets than I would be if I had a lot more money. I would do what you're doing but I am rolling the dice a lot more because I have nothing to lose. (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089641) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 2:38 PM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) Convential wisdom is that the less you have the more conservative you should be. Speculating hoping for a windfall isn't investing, it's the same mentality as someone buying scratch offs at as gas station.
You're doubling down but you should accept now that based on your performance that you're not an expert at this. There's a million other things you could focus on. Instead you're retreating further into delusion that you know better. But you're just buying scratchers. |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 2:52 PM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt I think if you have nyuug money it's OK to buy a $5 scratcher. If you have Warren Buffet money you don't go all in on risky assets. Billionaires own Coca-Cola. Young people with nothing to lose own SanDisk.
Buffet was asked why he didn't beat the S&P for 5 years. He said what does it matter? I'm rich. |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 2:57 PM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) Buffet has said the opposite. Perhaps that's why he's Buffet and nyuug is nyuug. Consider that before you follow the path of @SeoulsGotSOL (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089733) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 3:09 PM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt Proof he said the opposite? (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089756) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 3:20 PM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) He's reiterated his value investing strategy his entire career and has been very critical of speculating on assets that may experience significant growth beyond their actual value. He's been especially critical of people investing without much expertise and thinks the financial industry is far larger than it should be. And he's been especially, especially critical of crypto.
He's the last person that would advocate that people with no wealth gamble it on high risk, high reward investments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVm7Pfb0ilY |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 3:24 PM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt He admits though that the era in which he got rich is completely different. No one has gotten rich with his method in decades. If people still bought See's Candy they wouldn't make any money. The S&P is 40% tech. QQQ beats S&P. Buffet never bought Microsoft because he said he didn't understand computers and would rather invest in butterscotch candies. LOL if you are value investing today! (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089792) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 3:30 PM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) You invoked Warren Buffet, I said you're wrong about his beliefs, and you asked for a source.
No one said his beliefs are gospels, in fact as you point out even he concedes theyre not. But that doesn't change the fact you're wrong about his position and then demanding a source when I called it out. Now you're just moving the goalposts.
If you think Buffet is outdated then don't invoke him to justify your beliefs. |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 3:46 PM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt He said the market is a church connected to a casino. We know it's a casino. But the casino is beating the church lately. No one is gambling harder than Zurich tp.
My only invocation of Buffet is that he admits he doesn't need to make aggressive moves because he's old and rich. You told me that he would tell young people to make safe stable bets and incur little risk. I don't know what he would do if he was starting over today but I highly doubt he would buy and hold value stocks if he had no money.
All of the hedge fund bros in the last 30 years have been a lot more aggressive than Buffet. We don't have the luxury of being born in the 20s. |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 3:59 PM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) If you can't guess what he thinks based on him telling people not to do that, and doesn't do it himself with Berkshire, you could just take 2 seconds to Google what he's said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CI4goDVfLz4 |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 4:55 PM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt Yeah that's why a lot of young investors aren't buying a ton of AI stocks 🤔 (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50090007) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 5:17 PM Author: Accurate at predicting vs Measures of probability (gunneratttt) "Crypto is inversely correlated to AI stocks"
"No it isn't, you can just compare their history."
"Well Warren Buffet said the less you have the more you should gamble."
"No he didn't, here's proof."
"Well that's he'd do it if he was young and broke."
"No he wouldn't, here's proof."
"Well young people ARE doing it!" |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 5:28 PM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt Lol ur done here (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50090149) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 11:03 AM Author: Thriller crystalline main people gaping Got to keep an eye on the earnings report. Check out edgar.sec.gov (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089038) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 1:24 PM Author: Curious public bath CR. Hamster obese but responding well to red light therapy. Wheel revenue outlook strong. (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089439) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 1:29 PM Author: vigorous school this pump started when they announced printing money to buy back US treasuries. shorts got liquidated bigtime on the move. gold has been climbing for about a month or so too. but so crypto still is *responsive* at times as a hedge to general econ fuckery but not always. the question is really timing and how much of your money is sitting in crypto during the bear cycles while the normal markets are booming
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/short-squeeze-sends-bitcoin-72-184201085.html |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 1:32 PM Author: massive indian lodge (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089463) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 2:14 PM Author: duck-like fishy principal's office people who are hurt (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089583) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 2:24 PM Author: Vibrant regret I love the free market of the US govt issuing more cash in order to buy debt whose rates are rising because the US is running too large of a deficit and needing to create dollars to get by (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089627) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 3:10 PM Author: vigorous school dont forget propping up "the yen" so other countries dont actually sell those treasuries either ljl (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089757) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 2:15 PM Author: underhanded dark stage Cohen Benefits. (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50089584) |
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Date: August 24th, 2026 5:19 PM Author: Orange Hominid bc1q9llusp8gdf6hyqss53zvwf6nrv39f0caywcnya (https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5896607&forum_id=2#50090113) |