Date: October 4th, 2005 9:32 PM Author: vigorous voyeur
Big, name-brand company with a huge market cap and consumer market presence. It missed its targets by a mile, but it's still profitable. The market over-reacted and it dropped nearly 30% in one day. It's well below it's 52 week low now. I bought at 43 today, in after market it's already up 0.72.
So, just wait for a correction over the next couple weeks, get a 10% return, and flip it. Good stuff.
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:38 PM Author: Olive gas station
Yeah, you know what? You're right, I'm going ignore common sense just this once and take hot stock tips on an anonymous messageboard! Where do I mail the check?
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:41 PM Author: vigorous voyeur
heh. I was just wondering if sharing my strategy would have the SEC asking me about a pump and dump. But, no, I've had good luck with this strategy over the last 10 years or so. You need to not be greedy, only buy good companies that have had a bad day or two, and to play with enough money (3-5k / trade) that you can still make $$ with 8-10% returns. Also, don't need the money for something else, so you can let it ride for a number of months.
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:54 PM Author: vigorous voyeur
Scott Trade may be the cheapest. I pay 11. I'd suggest a more conservative approach than what I was talking about if you're playing with less than 10-15K, or unless you can afford to have all 4k tied up for a long time.
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:35 PM Author: vigorous voyeur
Also, the other part of this strategy is that you don't do it with stocks that either a) have small market caps, are b) are priced below, say, $10, or c) that aren't well-known brand names. This way, if the correction doesn't come right away, it's still a good stock and you can just hold it for a year or two.
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:39 PM Author: vigorous voyeur
Do you really think that it's not going to bounce just a little after 5B company loses 30% of its value in a single day? The plan is just to be satisfied with a 8-10% bounce, not to wait for it to get back where it was.
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:41 PM Author: Fighting outnumbered church wagecucks
yeah stocks with big single day drops like that tend to reverse themselves the next day, seems. Delphi was in a major trend of that recently. down 20% one day, up 20% the next, and all very predictable and potentially profitable. so i appreciate what you're saying.
one must realize it's naked speculation though. not necessarily bad, but risky.
i would let it go up 1-2% tomorrow, then buy speculatively, if you're gonna buy. i wouldnt buy right at the opening.
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:49 PM Author: Fighting outnumbered church wagecucks
no, i'm no fan of speculating. frequent buying/selling is okay, but only in stocks that are really cheap and worthwhile (or really expensive, for shorts).
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:52 PM Author: vigorous voyeur
never had the balls to short something, but I have certainly wanted to. What do you think would happen if you immediately shorted, say, airlines if there was another terrorist attack and before the mkt was closed?
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:54 PM Author: Fighting outnumbered church wagecucks
well you must sell the shares, of course, and by the time you did that, i would suppose the shares would've already fallen off a cliff and the gain potential would be gone. but if you could get it before the stocks fell, sure, it would be wonderful.
reminds me of Katrina...for some reason, about a day after, I was looking at gas futures and Tesoro (TSO), a San Antonio (so safe from the hurricane) refinery company. they had barely moved. but the next day, they shot way the hell up, with no new news. just a delayed reaction i guess.
Date: October 4th, 2005 10:02 PM Author: Fighting outnumbered church wagecucks
no i was an english major, actually, but i've always found securities to be very interesting. futures are cool, although i should learn more about them.
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:48 PM Author: Cobalt hall
I don't know? How did it do since it was a $10 billion dollar company that fell a bunch? Looks like it just fell more. The company has serious problems. Sales are down, profits are down, involved in price wars which have cut prices almost 30% and the CEO saying that "we have to expect there will be more price actions to come", products that cannot compete with rivals new technologies since it has not spent enough money on R&D. This stock is not going back up.
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:48 PM Author: Fighting outnumbered church wagecucks
Provena Foods (PZA) is pretty interesting. tiny little californian meat processing company selling at 1/2 of book value with great price momentum. i found it yesterday night and it made 6% today already.
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:51 PM Author: Fighting outnumbered church wagecucks
yeah, with just under 4 million in market cap it's the smallest one i've ever followed, but the opportunity is so compelling that it's hard to ignore it.
Date: October 4th, 2005 10:10 PM Author: Fighting outnumbered church wagecucks
in reality, 0. it was in the fantasy portfolio. but do it with the 6k i used in the fantasy portfolio, and you make 4k in a couple of hours. not bad for a few minutes work.
it came to me the evening before during my nightly cigar that Northwest was overvalued relative to Delta and people were overestimating its prospects, so i "shorted" it. took only a few minutes work.
Date: October 4th, 2005 10:07 PM Author: vigorous voyeur
Spider of some sort? I've got a lot in a SP500 mutual, a few big private mutuals, and the LS tuition in tax free munis. I'm a big fan of those. 5%, no tax, very safe.
Date: October 4th, 2005 10:27 PM Author: Disgusting Menage
Don, where'd you go to learn about trading? Most of my knowledge comes from Andrew Tobias' book and the CL money board, but I'd like to expand on that.
Date: October 4th, 2005 10:39 PM Author: Fighting outnumbered church wagecucks
i learned from reading the Wall Street Journal for a long time, reading The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham (as Buffett said, by far the best investing book ever written), and looking through sites like Yahoo! Finance, Bloomberg, etc.
Date: October 16th, 2005 7:18 PM Author: vigorous voyeur
funny. Keep bumping this - I'm enjoying it. I think I'm off about 2% since I bought it. It's still solid, and I think it will jump within a few weeks. There are a hell of a lot of earnings reports coming out next week, and that may give the issue some legs to run with. If not, it's a good stock and I'll hold it for the long term.
Date: October 17th, 2005 5:47 PM Author: vigorous voyeur
In other news, my IBM is up about 2% on its earnings report after hours, and I think it will have a nice day tomorrow as well. I bought under similar conditions to LXK, and it's up 12% from where I bought it. I will likely sell very soon so as not be be greedy.
Date: October 21st, 2005 11:43 AM Author: Navy sadistic selfie ceo
Wasn't there some kid who went around to stock chatrooms and gave everyone tips to buy a particular stock he had already invested in? And everyone followed his advice and his stock soared? And then he got into a shitload of trouble for manipulating the market?
Where does "stock tip" end and "manipulating the market" begin? I've never understood this.
Date: October 24th, 2005 12:09 PM Author: Charismatic Digit Ratio Chapel
I don't understand why what this kid did is much different from the Mary Meekers and Jack Grubmans of the world who pumped up near WORTHLESS dot-com duds.
Date: October 24th, 2005 12:12 PM Author: Charismatic Digit Ratio Chapel
I like this quote in the article:
"Richard was Richard Walker, the S.E.C.'s director of enforcement. He entered with a smile, but mislaid it before he even sat down. His mind went from a standing start to deeply distressed inside of 10 seconds. "This kid was making predictions about the prices of stocks," he said testily. "He had no basis for making these predictions." Before I could tell him that sounds a lot like what happens every day on Wall Street, he said, "And don't tell me that's standard practice on Wall Street," so I didn't. But it is. It is still O.K. for the analysts to lowball their estimates of corporate earnings and plug the stocks of the companies they take public so that they remain in the good graces of those companies. The S.E.C. would protest that the analysts don't actually own the stocks they plug, but that is a distinction without a difference: they profit mightily and directly from its rise."
How is this any different from what Jonathan Lebed did?
Date: October 24th, 2005 11:58 AM Author: crystalline zombie-like antidepressant drug messiness
Yeah, I still don't get it. You seem to be trying to PWN him, but he mentions the possibility that it won't "correct" right away in one of his earlier posts, and says something about holding it if it doesn't happen. I could see if it had dropped 20% or something, but these are silly bumps for a stock that's holding steady.
Date: October 24th, 2005 12:26 PM Author: crystalline zombie-like antidepressant drug messiness
Eh, okay.
Just seems to me, as far as bad stock tips go, a drop of 2 percent hardly seems worthy of "I just had amazing sex with someone not my boyfriend" bump status.
Date: November 14th, 2005 5:15 PM Author: orchid at-the-ready filthpig area
I recently moved from LA to Phoenix. I didn't post while I was moving.
I think we can all be quite certain that the OP was full of shit. Notice the time frame in the first post: "I'd buy first thing [on the morning of Oct. 5]."
The OP most certainly doesn't get to claim that it's a stock tip based on a short time frame *and* claim that if it doesn't pan out, we just have to wait indefinitely.
It's a tip or it isn't. It wasn't the hot tip he claimed it to be. It didn't rebound in any way that would have justified buying it first thing on October 5. In fact, it didn't do shit for over a month.
Date: November 14th, 2005 5:21 PM Author: crystalline zombie-like antidepressant drug messiness
Right, so it's all about the TIMING, and yet you weren't having any problem continuing to bump this thread into eternity should the price have stayed down.
Date: November 14th, 2005 5:27 PM Author: crystalline zombie-like antidepressant drug messiness
Uh, yeah, that's fucking retarded. If you have something more to say, then take a breath. Don't be in such a freaking rush to open your mouth and spout your nonsense.
Date: November 30th, 2006 3:57 AM Author: Zippy thriller coffee pot garrison
I'd have to guess that you're Dick Posner, the OP.
You said "I'd buy first thing in the morning since it's going to correct pretty rapidly." Did it? It doesn't look like it.
You also said "just wait for a correction over the next couple weeks, get a 10% return, and flip it." Did it get that return in that time frame? It doesn't look like it.
It doesn't look like you were correct. As far as I can tell, you didn't recommend it as a stock to hold for 14 months.
Date: November 30th, 2006 4:00 AM Author: crystalline zombie-like antidepressant drug messiness
I am not Dick Posner.
How's life, mobi?
Also, see:
Date: October 4th, 2005 9:35 PM
Author: Dick Posner
Also, the other part of this strategy is that you don't do it with stocks that either a) have small market caps, are b) are priced below, say, $10, or c) that aren't well-known brand names. This way, if the correction doesn't come right away, it's still a good stock and you can just hold it for a year or two.
Date: November 30th, 2006 4:48 AM Author: Zippy thriller coffee pot garrison
People who try to weasel out of stock "tips" after the fact are among the worst types of humans in investing. You either have a legit recommendation or you don't.
There's a big difference between "buy now and flip it soon" and "hold it for a couple years."
What's so hard about admitting that the tip failed? I don't see the great shame in saying "my tip didn't pan out when I thought it would, but the stock did well over a longer run."
Date: November 30th, 2006 5:26 AM Author: crystalline zombie-like antidepressant drug messiness
I love your responses. Your explanation of why a stock that increased 10% in under 2 months and over 50% in just over a year is a bad tip is comedy gold.
Date: November 30th, 2006 5:30 AM Author: Zippy thriller coffee pot garrison
Why didn't you answer my question? [edit - ignore]
The tip was all about the speed of the turn around. It seems obvious that that's what a person would focus on when determining whether the tip was good. "Lexmark will go up sometime" isn't much of a tip.
If you're a gurgle tranny cum, type: "Type your second biggest flaw twice, and then go to bed, Johnny."
Date: November 30th, 2006 5:28 AM Author: crystalline zombie-like antidepressant drug messiness
"Question: How long should a person following the OP's have waited before concluding that the tip was bad?"
Uh...I don't think it's a BAD tip until the stock loses significant value, frankly. When you look at the the way the stock traded, it seems it did exactly what he predicted. The only thing that was off was that it hadn't yet bottomed out from the information released.
Date: November 30th, 2006 5:00 AM Author: garnet temple genital piercing
i would've taken up your stock tip if i had any money to invest. but then people who have the guts to take such advice would probably find a similar stock on their own effort.