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what year will the last human die?

...
Aromatic set
  07/21/26
1945
controlling a virtual character on a computer
  07/21/26
oh.
Aromatic set
  07/22/26
Never.
gerstern
  07/22/26
this is obviously wrong. even if we don’t kill ourselv...
Aromatic set
  07/22/26
(lawyer)
gerstern
  07/22/26
I feel like if humans manage to survive to 2200 (i.e. become...
Drab Meetinghouse
  07/22/26
as power/technology increases, extinction-level event capabi...
Aromatic set
  07/22/26
on the face of it this would appear to be true
Drab Meetinghouse
  07/22/26
AI says it will be late 23rd Century: Based on a linear dec...
Yapping State Blood Rage
  07/22/26
declining fertility is great for the planet but terrible for...
Drab Meetinghouse
  07/22/26
this cannot be right
Bistre spot
  07/22/26


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Date: July 21st, 2026 12:21 PM
Author: Aromatic set



(https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2#50014248)



Reply

Date: July 21st, 2026 12:22 PM
Author: controlling a virtual character on a computer

1945

(https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2#50014252)



Reply

Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:03 AM
Author: Aromatic set

oh.

(https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2#50016476)



Reply

Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:04 AM
Author: gerstern

Never.

(https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2#50016479)



Reply

Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:13 AM
Author: Aromatic set

this is obviously wrong. even if we don’t kill ourselves or have some random, horrendous catastrophe befall the planet, in, say, a billion years there will still be no “humans” as our progeny will have evolved into something technically different.

(https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2#50016491)



Reply

Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:49 PM
Author: gerstern

(lawyer)

(https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2#50018355)



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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:07 AM
Author: Drab Meetinghouse

I feel like if humans manage to survive to 2200 (i.e. become technologically advanced enough to solve climate change/resource limitations/post-AI society) then I'm not sure what would subsequently stop them from surviving multiple millennia

(https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2#50016485)



Reply

Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:10 AM
Author: Aromatic set

as power/technology increases, extinction-level event capabilities become further democratized.

(https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2#50016488)



Reply

Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:17 AM
Author: Drab Meetinghouse

on the face of it this would appear to be true

(https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2#50016499)



Reply

Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:22 AM
Author: Yapping State Blood Rage

AI says it will be late 23rd Century:

Based on a linear decline of the global Total Fertility Rate (TFR), humanity will go completely extinct in approximately 244 to 264 years, with the global birth rate hitting zero in exactly 143.75 years.1. Calculate annual TFR declineThe starting fertility rate is \(2.3\).It drops \(0.4\) every \(25\) years.\(\text{Decline\ Rate}=\frac{0.4}{25}=0.016\text{\ per\ year}\)2. Determine zero birth yearWe define TFR over time \(t\):\(T(t)=2.3-0.016t\)Set fertility to zero:\(2.3-0.016t=0\)\(t=\frac{2.3}{0.016}=143.75\text{\ years}\)Global births completely stop at \(143.75\) years.3. Add remaining human lifespanExtinction occurs when the last person dies.The maximum human lifespan is \(100\) to \(120\) years.Add this lifespan to the zero birth year:Lower estimate: \(143.75 + 100 = 243.75 \text{ years}\)Upper estimate: \(143.75 + 120 = 263.75 \text{ years}\)Final Projection ✅Under these specific parameters, humanity will go completely extinct in 243.75 to 263.75 years from now.If you want to refine this projection, let me know if you would like to:Switch to an exponential decay model.Factor in shifting global life expectancies.Analyze regional variations in demographic trends.

(https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2#50016509)



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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:23 AM
Author: Drab Meetinghouse

declining fertility is great for the planet but terrible for capitalism

(https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2#50016512)



Reply

Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:53 PM
Author: Bistre spot

this cannot be right

(https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2#50018365)